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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

tennessee storm said:
afraid look been buisy last hour with kids lol. did it go further north or something?
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Just a good bit different, significantly less deep of a low and the euro shows the low traveling near the Memphis area northeast. Looks like its going to be Tennessee and south based on the new euro. Im going to throw the 12z euro run. way too different. Need to see another run or two with similarity. Can't look at a lot of other parameters because you have to pay so other than that idk.
 
Zander98al said:
Just a good bit different, significantly less deep of a low and the euro shows the low traveling near the Memphis area northeast. Looks like its going to be Tennessee and south based on the new euro. Im going to throw the 12z euro run. way too different. Need to see another run or two with similarity. Can't look at a lot of other parameters because you have to pay so other than that idk.
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Can’t toss/throw it out considering it’s a pretty clear trend on the EPS/euro to a flatter look, given more northern stream trough interaction 1CCFE3EF-6352-4503-BE19-90B98DB4BE1B.gif61F5111C-A239-48E7-AFE3-F99E6D820AB7.gif
 
southern AL/southern MS imo has the best shot with this sort of setup for some decent severe, mid/northern AL looks more elevated with 4.8-5.5 low level LRs and basically no T/D spreads and warmer air aloft, this typically happens anyways were the main threat is further south then what models show
 
12z euro actually lines up pretty well with the cips severe threat analog guidance, Almost to a tee. If I were a risky person I'd day that the 12z euro may be a bit more dangerous for the deep south than the earlier further north runs a bit more consolidated to south of the Tennessee border though. With this setup youll likely have a pretty dangerous storm or two riding near the warm front. 20220212_133038.png 500wh.us_se.png200wh.us_se.png850wh.us_se.pngScreenshot_20220212-132148-504~2.png
 
Zander98al said:
12z euro actually lines up pretty well with the cips severe threat analog guidance, Almost to a tee. If I were a risky person I'd day that the 12z euro may be a bit more dangerous for the deep south than the earlier further north runs a bit more consolidated to south of the Tennessee border though. With this setup youll likely have a pretty dangerous storm or two riding near the warm front. View attachment 113461 View attachment 113456View attachment 113457View attachment 113458View attachment 113459
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Definetly more riskier with the further south track like the euro shows. Better chance at breaking the cap and better shear further south overlapping the best moisture.
 
Huntsville AFD highlighting the same uncertainty discussed here in this thread.
“The biggest concern at this time with this system is locally heavy rain that could lead to flooding. PW values soar into the 1.5 to 2 inches range on Thursday, which is near observed maximum values for this time of year based on sounding from BMX. Severe storms are also possible. Yes, SPC has placed the area in a Day 6 outlook. However,
confidence is low at this time due to some timing uncertainties in the medium range guidance and whether or not all the parameters can
line up across the forecast area. Shear values are extremely strong, but as is often the case, the instability is lacking. This does not mean we will not see any severe storms, but with a system still 6
days out it is tough to determine specific details.”
 
HSVweather said:
Huntsville AFD highlighting the same uncertainty discussed here in this thread.
“The biggest concern at this time with this system is locally heavy rain that could lead to flooding. PW values soar into the 1.5 to 2 inches range on Thursday, which is near observed maximum values for this time of year based on sounding from BMX. Severe storms are also possible. Yes, SPC has placed the area in a Day 6 outlook. However,
confidence is low at this time due to some timing uncertainties in the medium range guidance and whether or not all the parameters can
line up across the forecast area. Shear values are extremely strong, but as is often the case, the instability is lacking. This does not mean we will not see any severe storms, but with a system still 6
days out it is tough to determine specific details.”
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Flooding will be a big concern. See I agree with Huntsville with that, like the posts above if the low does track further south that actually increases the threat for the deep south because of higher instability meshed with higher shear. That Memphis area if the low tracks near there is prime position for most of Alabama and Mississippi for a decent weather outbreak.
 
18z GFS probably the most impressive GFS run so far. It's not picking up the moisture well but a dangerous look nonethless.
 
Also! The GFS has temperatures reach upper 60s lower 70s. I'f this low reaches into the 980s I'll be impressed.
 
12z nam actually diggs deeper and is a bit more amped compared to the GFS and EURO. Timing looks to be really good on this system. Dew points already around 55 degrees near central Alabama and adjacent areas by 9 o'clock the night before the day of the possible outbreak. Instability is about to shoot up. Also decent cloud breaks on the last frame heading into MS/AL. Your probably going to see a uptick in severe weather chances in the coming days. Especially if the trend of this trough digging more south and east occurs. And the timing of the main activity is near 12 o'clock to 5 in the day.
 
Peek the cloud cover forecasts from the nam and GFS at the same timeframe almost near midnight before the main action. More cloud breaks will aid in higher lapse rates and instability if these cloud breaks maintain. Already near 6.5+ in projections. Models are probably about to go stupid with potential I'f nam trend is right. SOOO buckle up just in case. No guarantee but we're about to be sampled in a day or two and be in the NAM range.Screenshot_20220213-123125-583.pngScreenshot_20220213-123015-276.png
 
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Look at the trough at the same timeframe between both models as above. NAM bottom; is still digging some and is still in the downward dive. The GFS is neutral and ready to eject. So the nam is probably indicating to a bit more of a southeastern push of the troScreenshot_20220213-124302-646.pngScreenshot_20220213-124148-612.pngnamconus_z500a_us_53.pnggfs_z500a_us_15.png
 
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18z nam vs 12 GFS. Nam has this more considlated and digging more as it's ejecting of getting ready to eject. Also threw in a euro pic as well lol gfs_z500_vort_us_16.pngnamconus_z500_vort_us_53.pngecmwf_z500a_us_31.pnggfs_z500a_us_16.pngnamconus_z500a_us_53 (1).png
 
From Bham NWS afternoon discussion:


LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0238 PM CST Sun Feb 13 2022/

The overall battle of the models continue. While the main
forecast timing, albeit a touch slower, is still very close
with the system sliding through Midday and into the area,
instabilities values are higher this afternoon. Would expect this
to continue until we can get more of the higher resolution. The
overall synoptic pattern still showers a pretty good chance at
seeing severe weather across the the Southeast on Thursday. Trying
to get into the fine details is really too much at this time.
Bottom line is that we will see strong storms and moderate to
heavy rain. Severe storms will be possible especially with the
system sliding through during the afternoon.
 
TileDude said:
From Bham NWS afternoon discussion:


LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0238 PM CST Sun Feb 13 2022/

The overall battle of the models continue. While the main
forecast timing, albeit a touch slower, is still very close
with the system sliding through Midday and into the area,
instabilities values are higher this afternoon. Would expect this
to continue until we can get more of the higher resolution. The
overall synoptic pattern still showers a pretty good chance at
seeing severe weather across the the Southeast on Thursday. Trying
to get into the fine details is really too much at this time.
Bottom line is that we will see strong storms and moderate to
heavy rain. Severe storms will be possible especially with the
system sliding through during the afternoon.
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I think on my posts above the nam is more volatile for our area. The upper level low may not shear out or as fast as the globals which leads to better height falls for the twin states. I've said many times I think this event has a high ceiling. The instability levels like they say that are higher today will continue to rise more and likely. I see the most likely threshold to be 2000j or so. Which is pretty good for a winter setup. You usually only see central Alabama and Mississippi reaching a max of 2500j in the winter time any any given setup.

But the daytime passage of storms is a biggie for winter events when you need the most help you can get with instability
 
Sounding on the Mississippi Alabama state line. The LCL is basically almost scraping the ground with how low it is ?. I tell you when the Thermodynamics catch up. This is going to be a nasty setup. Still questions marks. BUT daytime arrival will alleviate some question marks if true. 2022021318_GFS_096_33.1,-88.47_severe_ml.png
 
I picked a heck of time to take a beach trip for the weekend leaving early Thursday morning. Hopefully this means atleast the weather for a little while on Thursday will be nice and warm ahead of the storms. If nothing else I'll be able to report on what kind of airmass is blasting northward from the GOM.
 
Zander98al said:
Sounding on the Mississippi Alabama state line. The LCL is basically almost scraping the ground with how low it is ?. I tell you when the Thermodynamics catch up. This is going to be a nasty setup. Still questions marks. BUT daytime arrival will alleviate some question marks if true. View attachment 113526
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Just no way to get around that warm layer though and with the monster moisture advection you are gonna have cloud cover.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, lapse rates are pretty meager still and the sounding just looks like grunge, looks like a Stratiform/elevated convection fest
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This look alone makes me almost 100% sure most of AL will be socked in with clouds/showers, if not just rain. In this setup, you absolutely must have sunshine to get prefrontal convection and that likely still wont be enough.
 

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Arcc said:
This look alone makes me almost 100% sure most of AL will be socked in with clouds/showers, if not just rain. In this setup, you absolutely must have sunshine to get prefrontal convection and that likely still wont be enough.
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Why would the nws bham be confident in tornadoes then? Cips analogs is also confident in a decent threat.
 
Arcc said:
This look alone makes me almost 100% sure most of AL will be socked in with clouds/showers, if not just rain. In this setup, you absolutely must have sunshine to get prefrontal convection and that still may not be enough.
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Yep, fully saturated tropospheric soundings/poor tropospheric lapse rates and already present stratiform/elevated convection gives this setup a big reason to not be a big deal for AL/eastern miss. Also typically we shift the pseudo warm front south at go time vs modeled a few days before. Lots going against this setup, only area I could see being more interesting is the very southern sections
 
Zander98al said:
Why would the nws bham be confident in tornadoes then? Cips analogs is also confident in a decent threat.
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Definitely a chance of tornadoes with the front, but for a big pre-frontal threat, this isn't it. You can be confident in severe weather, but also be confident that unless something major changes it wont be a high end threat.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, fully saturated tropospheric soundings/poor tropospheric lapse rates and already present stratiform/elevated convection gives this setup a big reason to not be a big deal for AL/eastern miss. Also typically we shift the pseudo warm front south at go time vs modeled a few days before. Lots going against this setup, only area I could see being more interesting is the very southern sections
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Yep, the gulf coast areas is normally the place to watch in these low laspe rate/high shear events. Those wind field shear/profiles are nasty.
 
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