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Severe Severe Threat 2/21-2/23

Either the HRRR is pretty smart or pretty dumb when it comes to this discreet convection. I'm more so leaning towards the HRRR being right. But if it is that's really not a good thing.
 
Last 3 runs on simulated radar have been pretty darn similar. HRRRSE_prec_radar_014 (1).pngHRRRSE_prec_radar_013 (3).pngHRRRSE_prec_radar_012 (2).png
 
The litmus test of the day will be at around 2 or 3 o'clock. Hrrr has a few thunderstorms popping up in central Alabama around that time before supercell it shows, it'll show how accurate the HRRR is right now. Some of those 2 or 3 o'clock storms may actually be weak supercells?
 
LukeBarrette said:
FWIW the 15z HRRR just took the storm away
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It still keeps the updraft swaths though, it's been consistent in a general idea of a boundary running supercell. Wouldn't be surprised if it shows back up like It was again. But idk interesting to watch. Oh wait it doesn't have the updraft swath on the 15z lol I thought it did.
 
Check out the updraft swath in north Alabama tho,
I still think there will be a long track decent supercell in the same vicinity as it's been showing especially if it's on a boundary with paramters that aren't half bad.@LukeBarrette HRRRSE_con_uphlysw_011.png
 
That north Alabama swath is no joke. Check the stp exactly on top of the updraft swath. STP at a 9!. @HSVweather this is in your neck of the woods if verified.HRRRSE_con_uphlysw_011 (1).pngScreenshot_20220222-112602.png
 
Heavy rain and even a severe thunderstorm warning came through early this morning and looks to have put a lid on our severe threat here that was supposed to came late this afternoon. Spc has taken me out of the slight risk which I’m more then happy with.
6B2602D7-96D1-4EB6-BE66-3E59467DA02C.gif
 
Pup12 said:
The sun just popped out here in Madison County. Is that bad?
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It isn't good as it may allow for greater instability to build in. At the same time though there are countless other variables in play here it may have no impact as a whole. Generally speaking you would prefer it stay cloudy though.
 
Hrrr coming back to the idea of the longer tracked super cell northwest of bham. HRRRSE_con_uphlysw_013.png
 
Interesting to note the HRRR is not handling the instability well on its eastward extent.
 
Also the HRRR shows a line of renegade supercells lol. I think it may be on drugs for that one
 
Got a lot of cells popping up across MS/AL. Some showing weak rotation.
 
Hey @Arcc the 19z is back with the monster updraft swath in north Alabama same location same parameters. May see a big one later. HRRRSE_con_uphlysw_011 (2).png
 
HSVweather said:
It may be showing the possibility of cells forming on the rain cooled boundary across extreme NE Mississippi into NW Alabama.
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Probably what it's picking up on. Either way it's not good, with the parameters in play you could possibly have a violent tornado in that corridor. Nonetheless all eyes will be glued on coverage later. That boundary setting up isn't good. A similar type of boundary set up on April 27th with a cooled rain air mass and the warm moist air to the south. Hackleburg/ Phil Campbell tornado spawned from that. Not saying this will be like that. But boundaries are pretty big
 
Zander98al said:
Probably what it's picking up on. Either way it's not good, with the parameters in play you could possibly have a violent tornado in that corridor. Nonetheless all eyes will be glued on coverage later. That boundary setting up isn't good. A similar type of boundary set up on April 27th with a cooled rain air mass and the warm moist air to the south. Hackleburg/ Phil Campbell tornado spawned from that. Not saying this will be like that. But boundaries are pretty big
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May have a rare occasion where the spc issues a mesoscale discussion for one cell lol
 
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