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Severe Severe Threat 2/21-2/23

4782DAEB-48A5-472B-9AFF-889DC629876B.jpegIt could change as systems tend to ramp up sometimes with instability as event gets closer but looks like SBCAPE is lacking Tuesday and again Thursday night for HSV area.

Flooding looks like biggest concern at this time here.

Huntsville AFD noted this
 
checking the NAM. that day 4 threat looks pretty good from what I can tell, less of a dry layer/warm layer. than the other threat more potential for higher instability. EHI is already pretty good, expect it to be bumped up a bit the closer we get, shear is not as high so not as good of chance for updrafts to be shredded. Lapse rates from the surface to 3km are pretty good along with the mid lapse rates. Only question I have is there any lift to push these storms into forming. Probably will have some confluence bands to initiate some convection but any higher threat your probably going to have to look for a boundary which will probably be somewhere in the northern extent of the threat area I'f I had to guess.sounding is actually pretty good in MS comparatively speaking. Loaded gun if anything can initiate convection.
2022021912_NAM_081_32.91,-89.65_severe_ml.png
 
Zander98al said:
checking the NAM. that day 4 threat looks pretty good from what I can tell, less of a dry layer/warm layer. than the other threat more potential for higher instability. EHI is already pretty good, expect it to be bumped up a bit the closer we get, shear is not as high so not as good of chance for updrafts to be shredded. Lapse rates from the surface to 3km are pretty good along with the mid lapse rates. Only question I have is there any lift to push these storms into forming. Probably will have some confluence bands to initiate some convection but any higher threat your probably going to have to look for a boundary which will probably be somewhere in the northern extent of the threat area I'f I had to guess.sounding is actually pretty good in MS comparatively speaking. Loaded gun if anything can initiate convection.
View attachment 113944
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Now that is legit sounding.
 
Arcc said:
Now that is legit sounding.
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Typically we see a eastward shift with parameters too. Wouldn't be surprised if the best parameters end up near the Alabama Mississippi state line again. The SRH Helcity isn't screaming this go round, but I imagine it to will go up with CAMS, and with higher instability that'll offset some of the lacking shear.

May be a event where you see cells popping from peak heating in that southern MS area and track that typical Northeastward path.
 
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Everything is pointing to a pretty decent setup over Mississippi into western portions of Alabama for Tuesday. High lapse rates, moderate shear and moderate instability question I got is the lift, might be a front pushing through there but all I got is a sounding from north Georgia in this dialup 4g LTE data in Georgia hard to really look at anything with this such slow internet. If anything peak heating and confluence bands will be enough to initiate some cells. Cips analogs guidance is really conservative on the setup. Really curious to see what the CAMS initiate in the warm sector if anything. Also wonder if your going to have a boundary just south of the MCS/rain mass feature that looks to preside over Tennessee that I had saw on the 12z run. If you had a strong cold front you'd probably be looking at some nasty supercells and accompanying tornadoes possibly.
Can't even upload the sounding I have ?
 
It’s a trade off to last system, lower confidence as well, better thermodynamics but kinematics are much lower then last setup, could go either way, this setup imo has a higher ceiling then the last but still doesn’t look like a big event 7311FE9D-CE07-48D4-A31A-7F1E6E23EF3E.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s a trade off to last system, lower confidence as well, better thermodynamics but kinematics are much lower then last setup, could go either way, this setup imo has a higher ceiling then the last but still doesn’t look like a big event View attachment 113961
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I'll take this setup over the last one honestly, if you get enough lift in a environment with both moderate shear and moderate instability with some good lapse rates youll get some spinning tops. In all likelihood the shear and instability will probably be underdone. If you get a good meshpoint and lift at the right time you'll have a pretty good environment.
 
Another thing I've noticed before, with these open low systems that have instability pushing up all the way to the north right on the front. benefit from backed winds with the deeper pressure falls sometimes when the system is deeping. Lines up well with the northern extent of the warm sector having a higher chance for severe weather.
 
HSVweather said:
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I'd almost say his target area is abit too far south, but then again that southern Mississippi area is usually your usual producer. Running a fine line between anything even forming, still stand by the best chances being in north MS but if you have a bit more lift best area would be that south MS area. NAM 3km and the FV3 simulated radar for around the 5 o'clock. The only two CAMS currently in range. FV3 shows scattered development in the northern MS range while the The 3km NAM shows very little returns. But again you almost always see a increase with time. Possibility of a pseduo front breaking from the MCS that's to the north is a definite potential to watch. your best potential is where you can get surface features on this day. (Confluence bands, peak heating, any boundary.) Won't know some of this till day of. nam3km_ref_frzn_us_60.pngfv3-hires_ref_frzn_us_60.png
 
I'll go out on a ledge hear and say models are probably a good bit under done on the moisture and heating like our previous last two events. Expect a hike when you get into that 1 or 1 & half day away range.
 
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