Now that is legit sounding.checking the NAM. that day 4 threat looks pretty good from what I can tell, less of a dry layer/warm layer. than the other threat more potential for higher instability. EHI is already pretty good, expect it to be bumped up a bit the closer we get, shear is not as high so not as good of chance for updrafts to be shredded. Lapse rates from the surface to 3km are pretty good along with the mid lapse rates. Only question I have is there any lift to push these storms into forming. Probably will have some confluence bands to initiate some convection but any higher threat your probably going to have to look for a boundary which will probably be somewhere in the northern extent of the threat area I'f I had to guess.sounding is actually pretty good in MS comparatively speaking. Loaded gun if anything can initiate convection.
View attachment 113944
Typically we see a eastward shift with parameters too. Wouldn't be surprised if the best parameters end up near the Alabama Mississippi state line again. The SRH Helcity isn't screaming this go round, but I imagine it to will go up with CAMS, and with higher instability that'll offset some of the lacking shear.Now that is legit sounding.
I'll take this setup over the last one honestly, if you get enough lift in a environment with both moderate shear and moderate instability with some good lapse rates youll get some spinning tops. In all likelihood the shear and instability will probably be underdone. If you get a good meshpoint and lift at the right time you'll have a pretty good environment.It’s a trade off to last system, lower confidence as well, better thermodynamics but kinematics are much lower then last setup, could go either way, this setup imo has a higher ceiling then the last but still doesn’t look like a big event View attachment 113961
Where is this sounding from?View attachment 113962finnaly let me upload
Northeast Mississippi. Took a closer look, storm mode is actually elevated or very close too it on that sounding.Where is this sounding from?
Two issues I see there, one is you will have some lower dew points mixing down and definitely gonna need a trigger with that warm layer aloft.View attachment 113962finnaly let me upload