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Severe Severe Threat 2/21-2/23

Looks like that eastward shift of parameters I mentioned is starting to occur. The RAP is picking up on it, just now barely getting into range sounding on the MS/AL border nice EHI plume. Instability is still likely under modeled. Still need a lifting mechanism not going to try to interpret simulated radar on the model though lol.Screenshot_20220220-192408-216.png2022022021_RAP_048_32.76,-88.47_severe_ml.png
 
One thing I'm noticing lately that is a bit of a pet peeve with me. These new PDS tornado warnings that are issued when a TDS is seen on radar. I have seen that whenever that happens a warning is upgraded using the wording "Large and extremely dangerous tornado." Of course that phrase is then said by the on air meteorologists. The issue I have is very few tornados actually ever reach that description. I feel like it needs to be worded differently. Maybe something like "a tornado has been confirmed and is doing damage, this is a particularly dangerous situation." The last thing we need to do is give the perception that a tornado is EF3 or greater every time we have a TDS on radar
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
One thing I'm noticing lately that is a bit of a pet peeve with me. These new PDS tornado warnings that are issued when a TDS is seen on radar. I have seen that whenever that happens a warning is upgraded using the wording "Large and extremely dangerous tornado." Of course that phrase is then said by the on air meteorologists. The issue I have is very few tornados actually ever reach that description. I feel like it needs to be worded differently. Maybe something like "a tornado has been confirmed and is doing damage, this is a particularly dangerous situation." The last thing we need to do is give the perception that a tornado is EF3 or greater every time we have a TDS on radar
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Agree but guess hard tell at times rating of a tornado till after damage is done … but the ef4 to ef5 s they just have that classic hook echo to them on radar images … me being a big chaser I learned that .
 
tennessee storm said:
Agree but guess hard tell at times rating of a tornado till after damage is done … but the ef4 to ef5 s they just have that classic hook echo to them on radar images … me being a big chaser I learned that .
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Exactly. I mean I know why they do it. Trying to be more urgent with the warning process. However sometimes they issue these PDS warnings. Get the warning out say that it's a a large violent tornado and the next scan the debris is spinning down and you can tell it was a quick spin up. Typically those large, violent, extremely dangerous tornados will have all those other signs on radar, and continue to show them for multiple scans without losing entensity. I just feel like that sort of wording should actually mean something. It definitely used to. If it's gonna be worded that way every time their is a TDS that wording is going to get watered down quickly
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
One thing I'm noticing lately that is a bit of a pet peeve with me. These new PDS tornado warnings that are issued when a TDS is seen on radar. I have seen that whenever that happens a warning is upgraded using the wording "Large and extremely dangerous tornado." Of course that phrase is then said by the on air meteorologists. The issue I have is very few tornados actually ever reach that description. I feel like it needs to be worded differently. Maybe something like "a tornado has been confirmed and is doing damage, this is a particularly dangerous situation." The last thing we need to do is give the perception that a tornado is EF3 or greater every time we have a TDS on radar
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I think they're okay with PDS. You kind've have three tornado warnings. The original tornado warning, a PDS, then a tornado emergency. PDS is used when it's certain a tornado is on the ground doing damage and then tornado emergency is for a very destructive life threating rare tornado.
 
I'm fine with PDS also we definitely need that type of warning. I just think they need to change the wording a little. Especially about it being a large violent tornado save that wording for a tornado emergency and for a PDS warning simply say a tornado is confirmed amd currently doing damage
 
I think the tornado threat is starting to rise for the MS/AL area. That shear is increasing in the northern Alabama area. Might be backed winds from pressure falls. But models are starting to show some nasty supercells with accompanied updraft swaths. Definitely needs to be watched until go time
 
The reason they do it ( I assume ) is for knuckleheads like me that go outside and look for it when a warning is issued.
If they say "a large and violent tornado", most people ( not all ) will seek shelter.
 
Pretty consistent idea with the HRRR on a swath of updrafts in the northern portion of Alabama. Ill tell you one thing I'f these training updrafts that the HRRR is showing is true. Your going to have a dang serious floodingnt threat in north Alabama. Currently at a moderate for flooding. Probably see a high risk flooding outlooked in north Alabama. HRRRSE_con_scp_035.pngHRRRSE_con_uphlysw_048 (5).png
 
Your biggest threat tommorow may be life threatening flooding somewhere in north Alabama were the train of convection sets up and follows one another.
 
Wowzers this is coming from the nws bham discussion Tuesday afternoon through Sunday. Wouldn't be surprised for a enchanced in that northern Alabama region may see a very favorable area for tornadoes there.

Tuesday will be very warm across the region with a strong 500 mb
ridge covering the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas. Meanwhile, a
low-amplitude shortwave trough will support a mid-latitude
cyclone moving from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes.
A moderately strong low-level jet axis will extend southwestward
from the Ohio Valley to Mississippi and Alabama Tuesday afternoon.
Initially, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will be
associated with a warm nose and capping around 600 mb. Despite
neutral height tendencies and very little synoptic support,
scattered thunderstorm development will be supported by
significant moisture advection within a warm advection regime
across Northeast Mississippi and Northwest Alabama. CAPE profiles
appear quite support of robust updrafts with LI values reaching -6
in West Alabama. MLCAPE values of 1000-1400 J/kg and increasingly
large curved hodographs will be sufficient for supercell storms
beginning around 5 PM. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging
winds appear possible with these storms in our northwestern
counties through midnight before storms congeal into a slow-moving
line. As the approaching cold front becomes parallel with the
deep-layer flow, training thunderstorms could result in isolated
flash flooding with rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches.
 
Pretty nasty warm layer around 700mb associated with minor subsidence from the ridge flexing, even more then the last setup showing up, could be a big limiting factor 6D0FB85F-E88F-448C-B90C-15E0B73DCAE3.png70357502-439C-4D28-BCAA-50C3DC53FB82.png5B3F651F-BE94-4BA8-8702-EE20E562054D.png
 
Zander98al said:
Wowzers this is coming from the nws bham discussion Tuesday afternoon through Sunday. Wouldn't be surprised for a enchanced in that northern Alabama region may see a very favorable area for tornadoes there.

Tuesday will be very warm across the region with a strong 500 mb
ridge covering the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas. Meanwhile, a
low-amplitude shortwave trough will support a mid-latitude
cyclone moving from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes.
A moderately strong low-level jet axis will extend southwestward
from the Ohio Valley to Mississippi and Alabama Tuesday afternoon.
Initially, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will be
associated with a warm nose and capping around 600 mb. Despite
neutral height tendencies and very little synoptic support,
scattered thunderstorm development will be supported by
significant moisture advection within a warm advection regime
across Northeast Mississippi and Northwest Alabama. CAPE profiles
appear quite support of robust updrafts with LI values reaching -6
in West Alabama. MLCAPE values of 1000-1400 J/kg and increasingly
large curved hodographs will be sufficient for supercell storms
beginning around 5 PM. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging
winds appear possible with these storms in our northwestern
counties through midnight before storms congeal into a slow-moving
line. As the approaching cold front becomes parallel with the
deep-layer flow, training thunderstorms could result in isolated
flash flooding with rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches.
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12Z HRRR seems to be maximizing parameters around the 5-6PM time around east MS, and west AL. Golden triangle up to Marion and Winston counties.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Pretty nasty warm layer around 700mb associated with minor subsidence from the ridge flexing, even more then the last setup showing up, could be a big limiting factor View attachment 114057View attachment 114058View attachment 114059
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Could be, but I’d definitely be concerned with that being breached is much higher than the low level warm layer with the last threat. Not a bad look though to see that 700mb level wetbulbing below 0C.

Edit: Seeing that 0-3km Cape closing in on 200 is very impressive for February.
 
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