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Severe Severe Threat 2/21-2/23

Arcc said:
Could be, but I’d definitely be concerned with that being breached is much higher than the low level warm layer with the last threat. Not a bad look though to see that 700mb level wetbulbing below 0C.

Edit: Seeing that 0-3km Cape closing in on 200 is very impressive for February.
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Yep just noticed that low level instability, that’s way way more impressive then the last event, gonna be interesting to see how tomorrow works could go either way
 
Wonder if a boundary will setup later today or tomorrow morning? Big MCS moving through central Alabama right now.
 
Looks like the WRFs focus convection more so in AL but keep instability confined to MS. Helicity looks very favorable for tornadoes with both 0-1km and 0-3km over 300. Bulk shear is out of the due west which is very favorable for Supercells in AL, although I’d like seeing a little more backing at 850mb.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like the WRFs focus convection more so in AL but keep instability confined to MS. Helicity looks very favorable for tornadoes with both 0-1km and 0-3km over 300. Bulk shear is out of the due west which is very favorable for Supercells in AL, although I’d like seeing a little more backing at 850mb.
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Loaded gun sounding if the warm layer gets breached. ? Albeit a low instability loaded gun lol
 
HSVweather said:
View attachment 11406512Z 3km NAM shows little development compared to HRRR, possibly a reflection of the warm layer limiting convection.
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Be careful with the Nam 3kms simulated radar. Arcc told me that the WRF model was the best cam for simulated radar I think. The NAM 3km has some biases if I can remember not sure what they were. I'd go with the HRRR and WRFs when they're in range last two events here were pretty accurate on the HRRR. The WRF seemed a bit bullish was pretty accurate If I remember.
 
Zander98al said:
Be careful with the Nam 3kms simulated radar. Arcc told me that the WRF model was the best cam for simulated radar I think. The NAM 3km has some biases if I can remember not sure what they were. I'd go with the HRRR and WRFs when they're in range last two events here were pretty accurate on the HRRR. The WRF seemed a bit bullish was pretty accurate If I remember.
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I’m sure it has been mentioned but when is the FV3 officially replacing the NAM? It appears FY23 based on this article

FV3 Convective-Allowing Forecast System - Environmental Modeling Center - Virtual Lab

vlab.noaa.gov vlab.noaa.gov

Back to the storm, here is the WRF simulated radar.

1645462776571.gif
 
Looks like reed timmer is going to chase the possible supercells in north Alabama tommorow.
 
18z HRRR is about to run. Very eager to see what it's showing. Likely a enchanced area with increased tornado odds will be issued somewhere in that north MS/AL vicinity if things stay on track. Those hodograph are concerning. 1000j of sbcape Is well enough for the amount of shear in place.
 
Wow. The 18z HRRR is a uptick if Ive ever seen one. 2000j of sb cape in west Alabama. More widespread discrete convection. 1000j nearly making it to bham. That tuscoolsa into west Alabama area looks nasty.... Limiting factor maybe surface to 3km lapse rates. They may be modest
Updraft helicity swaths are not as impressive.

Check out the lifted index of 7 at the state line!!!! That's incredible!!!!!
HRRRSE_sfc_dewp_029.png
 
Nevermind surface to 3km lapse rates are at 7. This is very impressive for a winter setup. Just check out the EHI that's really good for tornado potential. Definite enchanced coming for north Alabama, north Mississippi. Pretty bonkers. That wind on the surface is coming from the southeast these winds are very backed at the surface. This is a legit setup. crossover.us_se.pngehi03.us_se (3).pngehi01.us_se.pngscp.us_se.png
 
May be wrong but it looks as if the 22z HRRR tries and sets up a boundary near from a line of tuscoolsa to Birmingham to Gadsden.
 
Looks like convection intiates near the very unstable air at the MS/AL border. I think a 5% tornado risk is a bit low. Would expect atleast a 10%.
 
Bro these paramters in north Alabama are starting to get pretty good.
 
Look at the very high low level cape. Don't often see it that high. Cape has come up dramatically for north Alabama. updraft helicity even she's a supercell lasting for over 100 miles on the updraft swaths. Things are about to go bonkers later. Watch for any boundaries that will intensify things as well.HRRRSE_con_cape3km_014.pngHRRRSE_con_uphlysw_018 (4).pngHRRRSE_con_sbcape_014.pngHRRRSE_con_stp_015.pngHRRRSE_con_stp_014.pngHRRRSE_con_scp_015.png
 

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Pup12 said:
what does this mean for north Alabama when it shows this?
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That the atmosphere is primed for some really strong storms. Of course there is a lot of other ingredients that have to come together. But when your getting near the maxed out area it's usually not a good sign. Kinda getting a bit anxious for the cell that sets up on a boundary.
 
Your probably going to see a upgrade for north Alabama soon. I'm about 99% positive on that based on trends alone. Geez Louis the one weather day I don't go in early ?. What's your thoughts @Arcc?
 
Zander98al said:
That the atmosphere is primed for some really strong storms. Of course there is a lot of other ingredients that have to come together. But when your getting near the maxed out area it's usually not a good sign. Kinda getting a bit anxious for the cell that sets up on a boundary.
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thanks. appreciate you updating us
 
Weak low pressure looks to develop northwest of bham. that may be a aiding factor in backing the winds some
 
Zander98al said:
Your probably going to see a upgrade for north Alabama soon. I'm about 99% positive on that based on trends alone. Geez Louis the one weather day I don't go in early ?. What's your thoughts @Arcc?
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I honestly doubt we see an upgrade. Just looking at the WRFs neither have an convection before the storms along the front. Way too much uncertainty.
 
Arcc said:
I honestly doubt we see an upgrade. Just looking at the WRFs neither have an convection before the storms along the front. Way too much uncertainty.
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I'd put some stock in the HRRR though it was pretty good last severe threat. But good observation didn't take into account the WRFs. Usually in this range I solely rely on the HRRR
 
droptines35758 said:
None of the local Mets have mentioned any threats this evening. Which quite frankly scares the hell out of me.
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Lol always follow what your local Mets say. But I'd say there's a possibility of some bad weather in your area. Weather offices kind've have to be conservative in threats
 
13z hrrr run countinues what the 12z showed and in certain parameters is worse. Cape has shifted more east. HRRRSE_con_etop_013.pngHRRRSE_con_etop_012.pngHRRRSE_prec_radar_013 (2).png
 
Updraft helicity swath is a good bit stronger. This thing is definitely riding. A boundary long track supercell HRRRSE_con_uphlysw_016 (2).png
 
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