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Severe Severe Thread May 4-6

Knowing how these events ramp up for central Georgia, we'll probably have a small hatched area within a larger enhanced region by the Day 1. After the outbreak we had in central and east GA/SC on April 5th, I think I've had my share of close tornado encounters for the season.
 
David M. said:
Knowing how these events ramp up for central Georgia, we'll probably have a small hatched area within a larger enhanced region by the Day 1. After the outbreak we had in central and east GA/SC on April 5th, I think I've had my share of close tornado encounters for the season.
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I could see a larger enchanced and a small moderate issued, if details become more clear.
 
RAH Afternoon Discussion:

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

The surface warm front will lift northeast across central NC Friday
afternoon, advecting a more moist airmass with surface dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s throughout the day with strong southerly flow.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead and along the front,
and what is much different than storms the past few days is the
presence of increased shear and SRH, in combination with elevated
CAPE values. 0-6 km shear will increase to 40-50 kt, and with 0-1 km
shear of 25-35 kt and SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, rotating updrafts are
likely with the threat of isolated tornadoes, in addition to the
threat of damaging wind gusts and large hail. SPC continues to have
the entire region under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms,
however this may be increased in some areas as the details come into
better agreement. High-res CAMs are starting to come in better
agreement in the timing of the details, and the strongest storms
will likely move west to east across the region starting in the
afternoon and ending in the evening. Most storms are expected to
move quick enough to avoid flash flooding, however some heavier
storms could cause an issue, especially over developed areas. Please
stay tuned for further updates on the severe potential of the
system.
 
Close to have a robust severe threat in central Alabama predawn based on HRRR. Will continue to watch trends.
 
HRRR needs to stop acting up with that nonsense. A few supercells nah come through in the early morning hours 23z continues the 22z thoughts
 
Yeah I think tomorrow is going to be a pretty fun/interesting day for some places. If I were to guess, the SPC will paint a small, incisive ENH zone with 10% tor in a skinny corridor that starts around Durham and peters out around Newport News. This corridor represents the goldilocks zone where the warm front is veering the surface winds a touch more (more easterly component) and upping helicity a little bit without sacrificing too much CAPE.

One thing that I think limits the tor potential some is the orientation of the warm front- it's not at a favorable angle to storm motions. Storms will have a tight window to take advantage of the most supportive environment before they just lose all the surface CAPE and become elevated guff. All of those "ride the warm front" cells typically occur with a front orientation that's a little more parallel.

I also don't think this is going to be a very "widespread" event- a lot of CAMs show these rogue strips of very dry air mixing to the surface tomorrow. It looks like a lot of dry upper air got entrained when this trough got cut off in the west. See below in the sandhills.
hrrr_Td2m_seus_22.png

And yeah with dews in the mid 50s you're going to stifle storm development. Think that the NC/VA border is the sport to track here.
 
ILMRoss said:
Yeah I think tomorrow is going to be a pretty fun/interesting day for some places. If I were to guess, the SPC will paint a small, incisive ENH zone with 10% tor in a skinny corridor that starts around Durham and peters out around Newport News. This corridor represents the goldilocks zone where the warm front is veering the surface winds a touch more (more easterly component) and upping helicity a little bit without sacrificing too much CAPE.

One thing that I think limits the tor potential some is the orientation of the warm front- it's not at a favorable angle to storm motions. Storms will have a tight window to take advantage of the most supportive environment before they just lose all the surface CAPE and become elevated guff. All of those "ride the warm front" cells typically occur with a front orientation that's a little more parallel.

I also don't think this is going to be a very "widespread" event- a lot of CAMs show these rogue strips of very dry air mixing to the surface tomorrow. It looks like a lot of dry upper air got entrained when this trough got cut off in the west. See below in the sandhills.
hrrr_Td2m_seus_22.png

And yeah with dews in the mid 50s you're going to stifle storm development. Think that the NC/VA border is the sport to track here.
Click to expand...
It’s worth noting however that the HRRR has a bad PBL mixing bias, it’s mixed out way to much on setups, definitely gonna be some mixing tomorrow but low 50s ? Pretty skeptical
 
One of the bigger enhanced regions I can remember! Interested to see the probabilities and discussion880B4BB1-0F15-4AEA-8A7C-409D7218A9F2.jpeg
 
Dang it doesn’t seem like a 10% chance tornado type of day none of the local weather Mets barely talked about it
 
SD said:
Don't worry we are probably going to mix dews into the 50s and won't have much to worry about locally
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Well, it's still overcast here. Maybe it will stay that way and we'll even get some rain ahead of time to limit the instability before the front comes through. It doesn't seem like it's supposed to do much here until around 8:00 tonight.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, it's still overcast here. Maybe it will stay that way and we'll even get some rain ahead of time to limit the instability before the front comes through. It doesn't seem like it's supposed to do much here until around 8:00 tonight.
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Thing is the longer we hold on to the stratus and cool the more likely we are to see the initial warm front storms initiate potentially farther SW new HRRR fires them along I40hrrr-nc-upd_hlcy_5000-2000_accum-1878000.png
 
SD said:
Thing is the longer we hold on to the stratus and cool the more likely we are to see the initial warm front storms initiate potentially farther SW new HRRR fires them along I40View attachment 118138
Click to expand...
Was just about to post similar map, HRRR also has DPs in mid/upper 60s and that's like one UH track over Brick, my office and then my house lol

edit: also always seems to be the case, clouds hold on longer, warm front delayed and best chance in situations like this a little more south. Could be part of the reason for the larger enhanced? May have to wait a few hours to get a feel for where best spot will be
 
metwannabe said:
Was just about to post similar map, HRRR also has DPs in mid/upper 60s and that's like one UH track over Brick, my office and then my house lol

edit: also always seems to be the case, clouds hold on longer, warm front delayed and best chance in situations like this a little more south. Could be part of the reason for the larger enhanced? May have to wait a few hours to get a feel for where best spot will be
Click to expand...
If i were looking for a tornado today I would head up your way, down just west of Charlotte or maybe to the NW of GSO. Those seem to be the areas of the state where the potential might be maximized for different reasons
 
SD said:
If i were looking for a tornado today I would head up your way, down just west of Charlotte or maybe to the NW of GSO. Those seem to be the areas of the state where the potential might be maximized for different reasons
Click to expand...
Cool, I guess... yeah definitely keeping an eye on it
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s worth noting however that the HRRR has a bad PBL mixing bias, it’s mixed out way to much on setups, definitely gonna be some mixing tomorrow but low 50s ? Pretty skeptical
Click to expand...
Depends on how much sunlight can get through. FFC sounding def had a pretty dry layer in the mid levels, it could definitely crimp convection depending on where it screws off to
1651842545037.png
 
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