High end parameter potential here .. many ways of busting though. We got many short range models to go through before this comes to pass but I’m excited to track 
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Severe Severe Thread May 4-6
- Thread starter Detective WX
- Start date
SPC is sleeping hard
Justin Buchinsky
Member
SPC is sleeping hard imo... Absence of a negatively tilted trough and a focus on other regions is likely why we are still under a D3 gen thunder. High-end parameter space w/ sfc low and all 4 pillars of convection covered. Also pretty good model agreement w/ NAM/GFS/Euro (last I checked)/RGEM and a couple other CAMs showing a superb environment for severe convection. Watching with a wary eye for now.
The only things I see about Friday that could really cut back on convection are early day convection along and NE of the WF which may slow its progression and keep more areas stable and the potential to get a mid level dry punch. That dry punch though may simply act to cut back on overall coverage and organization into a mcs and keep things more cellular assuming they aren't choked out. Otherwise the parameters are there for a higher end day by NC/VA standards
Tornado watch from northern Texas to Tulsa just issued until 10:00 PM.
Brent
Member
My third tornado watch at least in 5 days. Still pretty cool and stable here but we'll see. Still expect the bigger threat to my south
HSVweather
Member
From what I am hearing it sounds like the moderate risk will be extended into central Oklahoma possibly including OKC in the next update.
Brent
Member
Yes I just heard that too
Brent
Member
Huge 15% hatched tornado now
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Elevated plumes of convection north of the warm front. 
It has taken a while but storms are starting to organize a little south of the warm front. Storm to my southeast might be the first to watch depending on how it does with the warm front.
?
Starting to get more organized.
Tornado warning now. Classic looking supercell.
Brent
Member
Brent
Member
Wouldn’t be surprised if the storm behind the tornado warned one drops a tornado at some point down the line as well. Starting to organize at it approaches the warm front.
Tornado warned now.
