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Severe Severe Thread May 4-6

Wild to have 2 significant tornados ongoing!

Tornado near Vernon, TX is moving all over the place. 4 warnings up for it. It just took a hard hard north turn. Hope the storm chasers got out of the way.

Tornado near Cromwell, OK has a large correlation coefficient drop.
 

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Looking at CAMS. There’s 2 areas I could see going enhanced, first area is NE NC/SE VA along the warm front, many models show supercells with all hazards possible around this area with the warm front. soundings reveal lots of helicity/ backing sfc winds around the warm front with moderate instability.
Second area is back in central/western NC where divergence aloft is favorable for a QLCS storm mode, damaging winds being the main threat with some embedded supercells possibleB1407E49-54D9-4879-A1FA-6C5C5E4054C0.jpeg
 
Lightning strikes toilet.
93d8a36abab0edb097cbbff4c9528170.jpg


In a storm around Oakmulgee yesterday. Gives new meaning to “someone blew up the bathroom!”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
27F601B6-3489-45EE-B7D5-1B134118B915.png
..NC INTO VA


MODELS INDICATE A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS NC
AND INTO VA DURING THE DAY, COINCIDENT WITH HEATING. MUCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS, WITH HODOGRAPHS
CLEARLY FAVORING SUPERCELLS. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND
68-70 F DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO FAVOR A TORNADO RISK. AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THIS SCENARIO REGARDING STORM COVERAGE, A CATEGORICAL
UPGRADE COULD BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
 
View attachment 118115
..NC INTO VA


MODELS INDICATE A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS NC
AND INTO VA DURING THE DAY, COINCIDENT WITH HEATING. MUCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS, WITH HODOGRAPHS
CLEARLY FAVORING SUPERCELLS. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND
68-70 F DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO FAVOR A TORNADO RISK. AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THIS SCENARIO REGARDING STORM COVERAGE, A CATEGORICAL
UPGRADE COULD BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
Noticed the 12z HRRR run had decent supercellular development in the new enchaned area. Maybe yall get some action too
 
Fairly impressive event for the southeast tommorow. Being sleeped on a lot. Could end up being one of the bigger events of the season.
 
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