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Severe Severe Thread May 4-6

SD said:
Don't worry we are probably going to mix dews into the 50s and won't have much to worry about locally
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Well, it's still overcast here. Maybe it will stay that way and we'll even get some rain ahead of time to limit the instability before the front comes through. It doesn't seem like it's supposed to do much here until around 8:00 tonight.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, it's still overcast here. Maybe it will stay that way and we'll even get some rain ahead of time to limit the instability before the front comes through. It doesn't seem like it's supposed to do much here until around 8:00 tonight.
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Thing is the longer we hold on to the stratus and cool the more likely we are to see the initial warm front storms initiate potentially farther SW new HRRR fires them along I40hrrr-nc-upd_hlcy_5000-2000_accum-1878000.png
 
SD said:
Thing is the longer we hold on to the stratus and cool the more likely we are to see the initial warm front storms initiate potentially farther SW new HRRR fires them along I40View attachment 118138
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Was just about to post similar map, HRRR also has DPs in mid/upper 60s and that's like one UH track over Brick, my office and then my house lol

edit: also always seems to be the case, clouds hold on longer, warm front delayed and best chance in situations like this a little more south. Could be part of the reason for the larger enhanced? May have to wait a few hours to get a feel for where best spot will be
 
metwannabe said:
Was just about to post similar map, HRRR also has DPs in mid/upper 60s and that's like one UH track over Brick, my office and then my house lol

edit: also always seems to be the case, clouds hold on longer, warm front delayed and best chance in situations like this a little more south. Could be part of the reason for the larger enhanced? May have to wait a few hours to get a feel for where best spot will be
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If i were looking for a tornado today I would head up your way, down just west of Charlotte or maybe to the NW of GSO. Those seem to be the areas of the state where the potential might be maximized for different reasons
 
SD said:
If i were looking for a tornado today I would head up your way, down just west of Charlotte or maybe to the NW of GSO. Those seem to be the areas of the state where the potential might be maximized for different reasons
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Cool, I guess... yeah definitely keeping an eye on it
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s worth noting however that the HRRR has a bad PBL mixing bias, it’s mixed out way to much on setups, definitely gonna be some mixing tomorrow but low 50s ? Pretty skeptical
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Depends on how much sunlight can get through. FFC sounding def had a pretty dry layer in the mid levels, it could definitely crimp convection depending on where it screws off to
1651842545037.png
 
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