HSVweather
Member
Looks like it. Same setup that south Ga steals all the juice.is this more of a south central GA event?
I could see a larger enchanced and a small moderate issued, if details become more clear.Knowing how these events ramp up for central Georgia, we'll probably have a small hatched area within a larger enhanced region by the Day 1. After the outbreak we had in central and east GA/SC on April 5th, I think I've had my share of close tornado encounters for the season.
It’s worth noting however that the HRRR has a bad PBL mixing bias, it’s mixed out way to much on setups, definitely gonna be some mixing tomorrow but low 50s ? Pretty skepticalYeah I think tomorrow is going to be a pretty fun/interesting day for some places. If I were to guess, the SPC will paint a small, incisive ENH zone with 10% tor in a skinny corridor that starts around Durham and peters out around Newport News. This corridor represents the goldilocks zone where the warm front is veering the surface winds a touch more (more easterly component) and upping helicity a little bit without sacrificing too much CAPE.
One thing that I think limits the tor potential some is the orientation of the warm front- it's not at a favorable angle to storm motions. Storms will have a tight window to take advantage of the most supportive environment before they just lose all the surface CAPE and become elevated guff. All of those "ride the warm front" cells typically occur with a front orientation that's a little more parallel.
I also don't think this is going to be a very "widespread" event- a lot of CAMs show these rogue strips of very dry air mixing to the surface tomorrow. It looks like a lot of dry upper air got entrained when this trough got cut off in the west. See below in the sandhills.
And yeah with dews in the mid 50s you're going to stifle storm development. Think that the NC/VA border is the sport to track here.
One of the bigger enhanced regions I can remember! Interested to see the probabilities and discussionView attachment 118133