RAH Afternoon Discussion:
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...
The surface warm
front will lift northeast across central
NC Friday
afternoon, advecting a more moist airmass with surface dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s throughout the day with strong southerly
flow.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead and along the
front,
and what is much different than storms the past few days is the
presence of increased
shear and
SRH, in combination with elevated
CAPE values. 0-6 km
shear will increase to 40-50
kt, and with 0-1 km
shear of 25-35
kt and
SRH of 200-300
m2/s2, rotating updrafts are
likely with the threat of
isolated tornadoes, in addition to the
threat of damaging wind gusts and large
hail.
SPC continues to have
the entire region under a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms,
however this may be increased in some areas as the details come into
better agreement. High-res CAMs are starting to come in better
agreement in the timing of the details, and the strongest storms
will
likely move west to east across the region starting in the
afternoon and ending in the evening. Most storms are expected to
move quick enough to avoid
flash flooding, however some heavier
storms could cause an issue, especially over developed areas. Please
stay tuned for further updates on the severe potential of the
system.