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Pattern September Somnolence

Looks like the Euro agrees with the CMC
 
a little flatter with the ridge... it may be the GFS is too fast... who knows:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png
 
GFS keeps the SER in place the entire run, no seasonal temps anywhere east of Nashville or South of Virginia.
 
Im in Texas right now and wow this sun is no joke. Just brutal. The ground is dry and cracked. Looks like it hasnt rained in months. Btw this is my first time ever in Texas.
 
I’ve gotta agree with storm here. I’ve been ready for this cooler weather for about 3 weeks and it’s about to kill me. I feel like this time last year I already had a bunch of firewood and the campfires were starting to roll. I’ll be stocking up on some firewood when that first cold front arrives in the 7 day. The wife and I always sit by the fire and make some hobo dinners and s’mores when those first cool nights roll in. Can’t wait for October to get here!
 
The Euro is king, sure.. but why does the Gfs get all the 'negative criticisms aka the 4 letter s-word we all know', that we all know when this model is just as terrible, if not worse. I mean, the Canadian in Winter is virtually useless,always with a cold bias:
gem_T2m_us_39.png
 
Front is coming... if the Euro is on board too, we can finally let our guard down maybe. The Endless Summer of 2018 may have a terminus after all:
gfs_T2m_us_44.png
 
whamby said:
Front is coming... if the Euro is on board too, we can finally let our guard down maybe. The Endless Summer of 2018 may have a terminus after all:
gfs_T2m_us_44.png
Click to expand...
Yay, mid 60’s :( Winter is right around the corner so I guess us folks east of the Apps better get used to this look...
 
Sigh of summer relief? Hope so, lotto of models finally linking up:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png
 
pay your respects to Anthony Masiello for this.. dude has a bewitching weather mind..By which I mean, this guy saw it before the models, and had real science to back it up.
 
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Euro has 4 inches of rain here(3rd wet weekend in a row lol) and highs in the 60s next week...

where do I sign up
 
Eps has highs in the low 70s as we roll into October. The eps and euro actually hold sunday in the 70s here as well.

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SD said:
Eps has highs in the low 70s as we roll into October. The eps and euro actually hold sunday in the 70s here as well.

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Click to expand...
Any signs of a wetter pattern for NGA and WSC, anytime soon??
 
SD said:
Eps has highs in the low 70s as we roll into October. The eps and euro actually hold sunday in the 70s here as well.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Looks like a possible wedge situation.
 
Once this front pushes through middle of next week it should feel great and hopefully no more AC running at night for awhile.

14-km EPS USA United States 24-h Precipitation 192.png
 
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Just quickly plotted Oct 5h anomalies from previous nino/+enso over past 30 years and it's interesting to see a strong correlation to a BN October. Didn't include the super nino's. Looks like the Aleutian low gets going in October.

Octnino.png

Euro.png
 
Things definetley seem to be moving up in the expected timeframe the last couple of model runs in regards to cooler weather.
 
Parker said:
Things definetley seem to be moving up in the expected timeframe the last couple of model runs in regards to cooler weather.
Click to expand...
They have, and it has calmed my nerves. I'm over the heat.
 
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