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Pattern September 2023 Discussion Thread

Happy to see temps tempering back closer to average but as a whole the days 2-7 period is underwhelming as far as cool air east of the apps. Any front passage is quickly replaced by return flow so our cool days are likely due to clouds and rain chances not true dry/cool air. As we get out to D7 and beyond we might have a better chance to drive cool and dry deeper in the region but for the most part these day 7+ troughs on the models have flattened in time or been weak with cool weather
 
SD said:
Happy to see temps tempering back closer to average but as a whole the days 2-7 period is underwhelming as far as cool air east of the apps. Any front passage is quickly replaced by return flow so our cool days are likely due to clouds and rain chances not true dry/cool air. As we get out to D7 and beyond we might have a better chance to drive cool and dry deeper in the region but for the most part these day 7+ troughs on the models have flattened in time or been weak with cool weather
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By looking at the forecast lows, I can tell that dewpoints will still be higher than I would like. This cooldown is not going to be bringing any of those cool, crisp autumn days when temperatures get into the upper forties and lower fifties at night. It is welcome relief however from highs in the upper nineties and surpassing 100 as the temperature did yesterday.
 
weather bubba said:
By looking at the forecast lows, I can tell that dewpoints will still be higher than I would like. This cooldown is not going to be bringing any of those cool, crisp autumn days when temperatures get into the upper forties and lower fifties at night. It is welcome relief however from highs in the upper nineties and surpassing 100 as the temperature did yesterday.
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In fairness it’s still a tad early for that nice crisp air to be regular. I know my average temperatures are still 86/64. Like you said though it will be nice to see 90s go away for awhile
 
Chazwin said:
In fairness it’s still a tad early for that nice crisp air to be regular. I know my average temperatures are still 86/64. Like you said though it will be nice to see 90s go away for awhile
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Yeah but it's not unheard of to get the first crisp airmass in Mid September, although it's usually in Late September i believe.
 
BullCityWx said:
One buck again at RDU
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As I have said before and will say again, I am skeptical about some of the readings that come from the RDU airport station these days. Living here my entire life, Fayetteville and Charlotte almost always were warmer than Raleigh with their temperature readings. It's been strange seeing Raleigh's temperatures being anywhere from two to five degrees warmer than these cities on average the past couple of years. I know the developers and builders have taken away a lot of the trees from the Triangle area and replaced them with concrete and asphalt but that shouldn't have affected temperatures that much. The same story when it comes to development is happening in Charlotte.
 
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SD said:
Happy to see temps tempering back closer to average but as a whole the days 2-7 period is underwhelming as far as cool air east of the apps. Any front passage is quickly replaced by return flow so our cool days are likely due to clouds and rain chances not true dry/cool air. As we get out to D7 and beyond we might have a better chance to drive cool and dry deeper in the region but for the most part these day 7+ troughs on the models have flattened in time or been weak with cool weather
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Better hope the next trough forecasted to show up in 7 days isnt a MIA.
 
Rough night in the Western suburbs of DC.


Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
609 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

VAC059-107-153-082245-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0333.000000T0000Z-230908T2245Z/
Loudoun VA-Fairfax VA-Prince William VA-
609 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN FAIRFAX AND NORTHWESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...

At 608 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Brambleton,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Numerous reports of wind driven
hail have been reported across southern and eastern Loudoun
County, mainly up to half dollar size hail. Hail up to golf
ball size is possible.

IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large
enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to
roofs, siding, and windows is possible.

Locations impacted include...
South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island,
Brambleton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Sterling,
Chantilly, Countryside, Arcola, Belmont, and Sterling Park.
 
Snowlover87 said:
How do you have a high of 68 and a low of 62 ? I could understand if it was cloudy and rainy but with mostly clear skies ?
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I dunno but it's wrong about Monday too which has high rain chances

Edit looking at the GFS it has widespread rain all day which yeah that would make more sense
 
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