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Pattern September 2023 Discussion Thread

JHS said:
The Euro is hot too so we can lock the heat after this weekend. Back to the middle and upper 90's we go.
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Posts like these are what earn you so many clown reactions. Despite all your predictions of generational droughts every month and summer temps of 105-110 (and even 115) every year, they NEVER even come close. GSP has not been above 98 since July 2016 and has only reached 97 about 3 times since then. Here is your NWS point and click for Jonesville through next Tues; honestly looks pretty good for the first week of Sept. Just keep repeating to yourself "Jonesville is not Death Valley, Jonesville is not Death Valley," and maybe you'll catch on!

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SD said:
Not a great set of models last night if you are looking for anything fall like. I'd guess it's 9/20 before we have anything to really shake up the pattern and it might be later than that
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At least the models have moved away from another long lasting 594+dm heat dome over the east though.
 
SD said:
Not a great set of models last night if you are looking for anything fall like. I'd guess it's 9/20 before we have anything to really shake up the pattern and it might be later than that
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Always disappointing not to see that initial "fallish" punch in early Sept but it looks like pretty typical stuff coming up really. And actually we've had some early nice weather during August; recall the week before last was very nice for most and these next couple of days look nice as well. For most of us, we have to wait till mid Sept to really see any sign of those first fronts coming through for most years. I also suggest checking out the ensembles; GEFS looks a lot more realistic with mid 80s for highs after the 10th, no tripple digits, etc. The long range GFS, as we know, has been a clown show this year.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Posts like these are what earn you so many clown reactions. Despite all your predictions of generational droughts every month and summer temps of 105-110 (and even 115) every year, they NEVER even come close. GSP has not been above 98 since July 2016 and has only reached 97 about 3 times since then. Here is your NWS point and click for Jonesville through next Tues; honestly looks pretty good for the first week of Sept. Just keep repeating to yourself "Jonesville is not Death Valley, Jonesville is not Death Valley," and maybe you'll catch on!

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Sounds like GSP is very much overdue a hot summer then
 
LickWx said:
Sounds like GSP is very much overdue a hot summer then
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No thanks; we've been plenty hot for my taste, (too many 90s) but yeah we've been pretty fortunate overall with the ultra high temps since 2016. I went back and got a full tally of the over 95s since then and it looks like this:

96 = 16 days
97= 5 days (I was 2 off) (2 of these were Oct 2019!)
98 = 3 days (I didn't realize it reached 98 twice during a June heat wave of 2022) The other was Oct 2019!

It has also been very wet during this stretch, which helps keep the record highs away. If we don't get a 100 going forward this year, which would be very likely, (latest ever is Sept 9th) next summer will be 8 years running without the century mark. GSP actually doesn't reach 100 most years, with the longest streak without being 15 years from 62-77. Interestingly, nearly a quarter of all of GSPs 100 degree days (back to 1885) happened in just 3 summers, (1887, 1952, and 2007) and almost half coming in just 8 summers.
Unfortunately we've also missed out on most of the recent cold (one week last Christmas doesn't make up for it). Each of the last 2 winters were extremely wimpy with the cold despite the good snow in Jan of 22.
 
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Iceagewhereartthou said:
No thanks; we've been plenty hot for my taste, (too many 90s) but yeah we've been pretty fortunate overall with the ultra high temps since 2016. I went back and got a full tally of the over 95s since then and it looks like this:

96 = 16 days
97= 5 days (I was 2 off) (2 of these were Oct 2019!)
98 = 3 days (I didn't realize it reached 98 twice during a June heat wave of 2022) The other was Oct 2019!

It has also been very wet during this stretch, which helps keep the record highs away. If we don't get a 100 going forward this year, which would be very likely, (latest ever is Sept 9th) next summer will be 8 years running without the century mark. GSP actually doesn't reach 100 most years, with the longest streak without being 15 years from 62-77. Interestingly, nearly a quarter of all of GSPs 100 degree days (back to 1885) happened in just 3 summers, (1887, 1952, and 2007) and almost half coming in just 8 summers.
Unfortunately we've also missed out on most of the recent cold (one week last Christmas doesn't make up for it). Each of the last 2 winters were extremely wimpy with the cold despite the good snow in Jan of 22.
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What you describe is pretty normal around this area.
Regardless of "what some ppl" try and portray.
Most are just attempting to troll.
100° days are more rare in this area than Snow in the Winter.
 
Billypg70 said:
What you describe is pretty normal around this area.
Regardless of "what some ppl" try and portray.
Most are just attempting to troll.
100° days are more rare in this area than Snow in the Winter.
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No most are not attempting to just troll…average return period for a 100 down there is some 3 years and it’s been like what 7 years? I get it you hate heat… but be honest it’s time
 
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