Pattern September 2023 Discussion Thread

[Turd Ferguson]

Hope the Pack has insurance on the scoreboard.

 

[Brent]

What a pattern change

 

[Tarheel1]

What a pattern change View attachment 136956

Yeah! It’s great!

 

[Chazwin]

Man it’s just been pounding rain here the last 90 minutes… 2.3” so far after .75” earlier this afternoon

 

[tractor girl]

Still not a single drop of rain in about 3 weeks in my part of Athens. Pop up, non-moving storms are happening all around us, but we are dry as a bone.

 

[DopplerWx]

Lows next weekend mid 50s ??

 

[jackendrickwx]

We got smoked on the field and from the sky yesterday. Got soaked trying to wait out the delay because they kicked most of us out of the stadium when the delay started. Tons of close lightning and an absolute deluge for a while there. RDU picked up almost 2" and the temp never got above 75F!

 

[FallsLake]

What does it mean to miss out on the hurricane and keep it off our coast --> Beautiful fall weather coming (with the help of the offshore storm).

18z GFS dew points ~noon Friday:

 

[Chazwin]

What does it mean to miss out on the hurricane and keep it off our coast --> Beautiful fall weather coming (with the help of the offshore storm).

18z GFS dew points ~noon Friday:
View attachment 136967

This is something you can always bank on in September when a hurricane is moving north offshore. Gonna be some good weather to get the fire pit going outside in the evening

 

[NCSNOW]

Getting pounded again from a storm

 

[Brent]

May we be done with the 90s til May or June like this year

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Seeing signs in the subseasonal pattern that we may have a overly strong pacific jet in late sept into oct, which would result in warmth

 

[LukeBarrette]

Seeing signs in the subseasonal pattern that we may have a overly strong pacific jet in late sept into oct, which would result in warmth

Get it out of the way early?!?

 

[Snowlover87]

Seeing signs in the subseasonal pattern that we may have a overly strong pacific jet in late sept into oct, which would result in warmth

You mean we could have 80s in October ?

 

[Chazwin]

You mean we could have 80s in October ?

Could also mean we see a lot of cloud cover and rainfall resulting in mind nights and near average highs as well.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Typically when the pacific jet reaches the GOAK, you flood most of CONUS with mild air

 

[Chazwin]

Typically when the pacific jet reaches the GOAK, you flood most of CONUS with mild airView attachment 136972

Definitely some signs there that the STJ is starting to come alive there. Pretty much right on cue for going into October in a moderate to strong El Niño

 

[SD]

Seeing signs in the subseasonal pattern that we may have a overly strong pacific jet in late sept into oct, which would result in warmth

Yep pattern isn't great. We likely get out of this around 10/10 give or take a week but certainly no longer duration BN until then. Interesting looking back at some analogs quite a few had a big mid October cold shot with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s/30s. All in all looks like a pretty normal nino sept-oct

 

[Snowlover87]

Yep pattern isn't great. We likely get out of this around 10/10 give or take a week but certainly no longer duration BN until then. Interesting looking back at some analogs quite a few had a big mid October cold shot with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s/30s. All in all looks like a pretty normal nino sept-oct

I just hope it's not like the Fall 2002 when the cooler air took forever to get here. I wonder if that was an El Nino also.

 

[JHS]

I just hope it's not like the Fall 2002 when the cooler air took forever to get here. I wonder if that was an El Nino also.

The winter behind that was kind of nice though, especially NC and SC and up into VA.