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Pattern Scorchtember

GFS wasn't really terrible until the very long range.

Sad that I'm saying that mostly well above average temps are okay, but for a while the top looked like low 90s to me.

Now precip is a whole different story for some.
 
72/52 with full sun and a 15 mph NE breeze.....not bad for mid Sept......rainfall is not a big deal here yet got 8" in Dorian.....would love to see 48/49 in the morning...would be the first time we have been below 50 since mid May, forecast is for 51 but we always go lower if the wind lays up in setup's like this.
 
Nice NAO block in the extended, with big ridge over the SE. That will give us incredible warmth and deflect any kind of TS. So you are in luck if you like dry/heat.

GEFS Ensembles North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 306.png
 
KyloG said:
Nice NAO block in the extended, with big ridge over the SE. That will give us incredible warmth and deflect any kind of TS. So you are in luck if you like dry/heat.

View attachment 23733
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Just to add as a point of clarification, that map shows height trends (orange is rising and blue is falling), not temperature departures.
 
KyloG said:
Nice NAO block in the extended, with big ridge over the SE. That will give us incredible warmth and deflect any kind of TS. So you are in luck if you like dry/heat.

View attachment 23733
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How is that even possible? Ridging in AK and Greenland and we torch. My bet is the NAO wont verify, because we know the SER will.
 
KyloG said:
Nice NAO block in the extended, with big ridge over the SE. That will give us incredible warmth and deflect any kind of TS. So you are in luck if you like dry/heat.

View attachment 23733
Click to expand...

Could break some records with that look. looks like that type of heat with large t/dp spreads/ mixed BL, and to go with that there’s also the developing drought which helps a bit, so it’s definitely gonna be hot (90s) with that look
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
How is that even possible? Ridging in AK and Greenland and we torch. My bet is the NAO wont verify, because we know the SER will.
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Probably because the MJO In phases favorable for that ugliness, and very warm waters under Alaska, and a very negative PNA, also it’s a bad -EPO
 
SoutheastRidge said:
There wouldnt be as much to talk about, but it would be nice if we could just ignore what any map says beyond 7 days. I dont even care what the maps say 10+ days from now because it most likely will change.
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That’s what we say when we don’t like what the models show day 7+.
 
We have had -NAO for past several months. Past couple weeks have been + though.

E63F1310-6397-439F-BBD7-187E183439A2.png
 
KyloG said:
That’s what we say when we don’t like what the models show day 7+.
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Its true though. How many times have you seen long range models show cold only to modify as it gets closer ? No reason why the reverse cant happen when it shows warmth in the long range.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Its true though. How many times have you seen long range models show cold only to modify as it gets closer ? No reason why the reverse cant happen when it shows warmth in the long range.
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Day 12+ can get iffy for sure but in this case EPS and GEFS agree day 7-12 -NAO, GOA ridge and thus warm/dry pattern for us.

14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 300.png
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Its true though. How many times have you seen long range models show cold only to modify as it gets closer ? No reason why the reverse cant happen when it shows warmth in the long range.
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You should know by now, warmth is normally forecasted well, if you see signs of ridging in the SE/warmth in the SE in the extended, its way more likely than cold, when you see cold in the models at long range, it normally modifies, for example the cold bias @GaWx mentions often is a good example, and there’s support for heat in the extended
 
No real rain here yet but it is cloudy and only 80 degrees here at mid afternoon after the whole month being well over 90

Ill take it lol
 
not feeling good, dry CADs do that lol, anyways it does feel better outside, NWS going with 48 degrees tonight
 
KyloG said:
Day 12+ can get iffy for sure but in this case EPS and GEFS agree day 7-12 -NAO, GOA ridge and thus warm/dry pattern for us.

View attachment 23735
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I love deep west coast troughs! That look probably gets Seattle with gigs in the 50s! SMFH
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Probably a sign of our winter pattern where we finally get a -NAO and still torch!
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I have heard that -NAO in the summer correlates to hot. I don't know if that's true or not, but I've heard it said. The unfortunate reality seems to be that everything correlates to hot anymore.
 
Rain Cold said:
I have heard that -NAO in the summer correlates to hot. I don't know if that's true or not, but I've heard it said. The unfortunate reality seems to be that everything correlates to hot anymore.
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Cycles I think. Don’t want to start talking about CC but I think we are just in a warm cycle and have been since the early 90s. We will flip again.


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This is sadAFD79FE6-C5D4-442E-B4E0-5759851DA5B3.png
 
SD said:
Got D15? We can get out of the ridge rolling this forward but we can easily see the same thing over and over

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At this point might as well hope it doesn't roll right though winter. I hope we have too much warmth and can get some snow in a few months instead of another summer! It's been too warm for 8 months now!
 
NoSnowATL said:
I will guess the winter pattern will look very similar to this. This pattern will be hard to break. We need a miracle.


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Not a miracle. I think we might be seeing some chinks in the model armor so to speak. 24 hours ago things were looking bleak. We are starting to see a ridge that while resilient, can only hold so long. You aren’t sustaining mid 90’s past early October.


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