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Pattern Scorchtember

ATLwxfan said:
It’ll be interesting to see how this ends. The two scenarios I’m thinking about are both bad. You finally get cold to build in Canada and it dives southeast into extreme heat and you have atmospheric napalm. Then other is a monster hurricane that obliterates the pattern. Both would unfortunately cause a lot of damage.


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You pretty much nailed it... going take something
ATLwxfan said:
It’ll be interesting to see how this ends. The two scenarios I’m thinking about are both bad. You finally get cold to build in Canada and it dives southeast into extreme heat and you have atmospheric napalm. Then other is a monster hurricane that obliterates the pattern. Both would unfortunately cause a lot of damage.


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Pretty much nailed it.... true
 
ATLwxfan said:
It’ll be interesting to see how this ends. The two scenarios I’m thinking about are both bad. You finally get cold to build in Canada and it dives southeast into extreme heat and you have atmospheric napalm. Then other is a monster hurricane that obliterates the pattern. Both would unfortunately cause a lot of damage.


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Agreed. We need one of them. This heat and drought will cause just about the same price but without the pattern change. So I’ll pick severe or Katrina again.



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ATLwxfan said:
I think all of us are fully expecting warmth well into October. Frankly the models have largely held a steady hand with this. How it finally cracks will be interesting.


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One hope I have is that the models are too warm with the temps, although with it being so dry it will probably come to fruition.
 
I would think that just the fact days are rapidly getting shorter and the sun angle getting lower would at least help temps lower a little, even without a pattern change. I feel like this goes against the laws of science for the heat to keep building like this as the sun angle rapidly declines. Something is off here.
 
RollTide18 said:
One hope I have is that the models are too warm with the temps, although with it being so dry it will probably come to fruition.
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Yeah plus the level of consensus is really damning. It really feels like the models are stuck on the same image after Hr 200 through the end of the run.


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NoSnowATL said:
Agreed. We need one of them. This heat and drought will cause just about the same price but without the pattern change. So I’ll pick severe or Katrina again.



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You'd pick Katrina again over a drought? Really? A drought isn't going to kill people and do damage like Katrina did.
 
Brick Tamland said:
You'd pick Katrina again over a drought? Really? A drought isn't going to kill people and do damage like Katrina did.
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Come on man you know I wasn’t talking about deaths. I’m talking about a strong system to mess up this pattern. Nobody wants to see people die.


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SWVAwxfan said:
Wow. Some people are really ignorant about droughts. They are quite devastating and have cost countless thousands of lives around the planet. Of course, no one wants a deadly hurricane, but if this pattern holds for many more months, the Southeast US will be a huge disaster area
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I'm not talking about around the planet. I am talking about here. A drought is not going to be as devastating here as another Katrina would be. I think the droughts here are always overblown by some. It's going to eventually rain again.
 
SWVAwxfan said:
Wow. Some people are really ignorant about droughts. They are quite devastating and have cost countless thousands of lives around the planet. Of course, no one wants a deadly hurricane, but if this pattern holds for many more months, the Southeast US will be a huge disaster area
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I guess some would rather run out of water than have a hurricane

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I hope it gets to 100. That would be awesome. At this point, I'm resigned to the fact that we're in a new normal. It's just going to be hot. No use fighting it anymore. Just bring it.
 
Will Rossman said:
I predict we keep the heat in the SE until end of October when the cold bottled up in Canada finally breaks free and we get a cold November and basically skip fall to winter.

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Europe get most of the cold air... if pattern stays way it is in the pacific nw... it will go other side globe ... not liking the looks of pacific at all
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Euro has widespread 98-100 across much of the Eastern US next Saturday. That's 100 degrees on September 29th!! Would break records like crazy. Of course its way out in fantasy land. View attachment 23756

Looking forward into October and you don't see a lot of hope. The ENSO continues to be in a weird state but clearly la nina presence is influencing the weather pattern. Hot/dry Eastern US is staple la nina feel.

When the ENSO is in a neutral state it allows other indexes to flex their muscles.

Heading into October the MJO is in a terrible position for our fall.View attachment 23757

Here are the temps based on MJO. You can see 8 and 1 are not nice to us in the Southeast.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this dry/hot pattern last into October. Especially without any outside forces. A lot of times we see a tropical system help break down this ridge. Without any influence there is nothing to knock it down.
View attachment 23759
CPC also agrees with the continued warmth atleast until October.View attachment 23760
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The very hot Euro temps are likely a little too hot based on a warm bias in these situations. But heat has verified very well recently. Regardless, it is looking to be ridiculously hot.
The 0Z Euro has an insane 97 at KATL for the hottest day in the 6-10 day period! The Euro ens hottest is only 92 but it has had about a 5 degree cool bias. So, 92 + 5 = 97.
 
tennessee storm said:
Europe get most of the cold air... if pattern stays way it is in the pacific nw... it will go other side globe ... not liking the looks of pacific at all
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I'm just getting used to the idea that this is preparing us for what winter will be like. Just replace 90 with 70.
 
Will be interesting to see what happens to our biome with deciduous trees losing their leaves in early December and getting tricked into budding by late January after a warm spell.


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