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Pattern Scorchtember

Good news, the GFS shows some relief at the end of Its run. Though It’s probably a mirage because we live in the desert now. Even the the camels are laughing at us because they’re going to be cooler than us next week. SMH91D1F61E-506E-4B08-BFA3-AB3FD4118342.png03A8DC56-0F7B-4873-8FDD-E5F7CB084BA9.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
At this point might as well hope it doesn't roll right though winter. I hope we have too much warmth and can get some snow in a few months instead of another summer! It's been too warm for 8 months now!
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Mjo likely to hang out in p1 for a while so ridging would be the primary player with short interludes of some troughing

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Lots of mid 50s showing up already. Metwannabe might make a run at 45 tonight
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SD said:
Lots of mid 50s showing up already. Metwannabe might make a run at 45 tonight
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Already 53 I might sleep outside btw where are those obs from? Looks like a radar with current obs, app? Site?

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FYI not far off from some sleet if we had moisture given temps are dropping into the 40s before 11pm around Boone. Mostly due to dry air...if we had moisture to work with.
 
SD said:
Radar omega, it has a lot of other cool features.
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Hi shane. I have a question. Just out of curiosity, if we get the mjo to focus more in phases 8 and 1 this winter, would we have a better chance at a colder and stormier outcome? Thanks in advance.
 
Golf7575 said:
Hi shane. I have a question. Just out of curiosity, if we get the mjo to focus more in phases 8 and 1 this winter, would we have a better chance at a colder and stormier outcome? Thanks in advance.
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It can't hurt. Obviously there are other factors that could still ruin things but having the mjo on your side is always a good thing. I'm still on the very warm train for winter but this is starting to make me at least wonder

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SD said:
The gfs run makes sense with the trough over the top suppressing the ridge. Much better than it trying to spill a trough down in the lee of the Rockies then plow it east

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If you can’t push it, squash it.


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after a day around 80(finally below normal), got some wet roads from mist here on the edges of Imelda

This is sad lol I feel like this is a preview of the maybe 3 flakes we'll get this winter...
 
ATL has yet to see a day with a negative temperature departure this September.

The best shot at that happening looks to be today or tomorrow, depending on the morning lows.

Otherwise, we're going to go an entire months with temps above average every single day.
 
SouthATLwx said:
ATL has yet to see a day with a negative temperature departure this September.

The best shot at that happening looks to be today or tomorrow, depending on the morning lows.

Otherwise, we're going to go an entire months with temps above average every single day.
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Mellish’s blog post yesterday mentioned that and several other records. Worth a read. Nuts!


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54 degrees
i'm wearing a longsleeve shirt today just because i can
 
Per the 06z GFS, during the first week of October, places in the upper south and even mid Atlantic could shatter high temperature records by several degrees. Meanwhile Canada is cool but not cold. Man I’ll take anything...even some humid, wet gulf moisture.


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Feeling nice here in NW GA this morning. I wished it would stick around longer than a day or two!

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No 50's here in my part of the peach state. Had a low of 62° this morning. Still felt really nice though. Maybe it'll cool off like that again around December.

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53 this morning
 
That’s the warmest (temp departure) EPS run I have ever seen. And day 15 you would think is muted being an ensemble mean.

Good news is though, it can’t get worse as far as model runs go.

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RollTide18 said:
GFS also showing similar, no cold shots in the south through 384 hrs, could this possibly be the warmest fall ever?
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Euro has widespread 98-100 across much of the Eastern US next Saturday. That's 100 degrees on September 29th!! Would break records like crazy. Of course its way out in fantasy land. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019092000_210_35_210.png

Looking forward into October and you don't see a lot of hope. The ENSO continues to be in a weird state but clearly la nina presence is influencing the weather pattern. Hot/dry Eastern US is staple la nina feel.

When the ENSO is in a neutral state it allows other indexes to flex their muscles.

Heading into October the MJO is in a terrible position for our fall.ensplume_full.gif

Here are the temps based on MJO. You can see 8 and 1 are not nice to us in the Southeast.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this dry/hot pattern last into October. Especially without any outside forces. A lot of times we see a tropical system help break down this ridge. Without any influence there is nothing to knock it down.
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CPC also agrees with the continued warmth atleast until October.814temp.new.gif
 
It’ll be interesting to see how this ends. The two scenarios I’m thinking about are both bad. You finally get cold to build in Canada and it dives southeast into extreme heat and you have atmospheric napalm. Then other is a monster hurricane that obliterates the pattern. Both would unfortunately cause a lot of damage.


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ATLwxfan said:
It’ll be interesting to see how this ends. The two scenarios I’m thinking about are both bad. You finally get cold to build in Canada and it dives southeast into extreme heat and you have atmospheric napalm. Then other is a monster hurricane that obliterates the pattern. Both would unfortunately cause a lot of damage.


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Yeah, last year, Michael broke the pattern down, literally the next day it was beautiful.

This isn’t really an educated guess but I’d say that a big fall severe event will probably eventually break the pattern.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Euro has widespread 98-100 across much of the Eastern US next Saturday. That's 100 degrees on September 29th!! Would break records like crazy. Of course its way out in fantasy land. View attachment 23756

Looking forward into October and you don't see a lot of hope. The ENSO continues to be in a weird state but clearly la nina presence is influencing the weather pattern. Hot/dry Eastern US is staple la nina feel.

When the ENSO is in a neutral state it allows other indexes to flex their muscles.

Heading into October the MJO is in a terrible position for our fall.View attachment 23757

Here are the temps based on MJO. You can see 8 and 1 are not nice to us in the Southeast.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this dry/hot pattern last into October. Especially without any outside forces. A lot of times we see a tropical system help break down this ridge. Without any influence there is nothing to knock it down.
View attachment 23759
CPC also agrees with the continued warmth atleast until October.View attachment 23760
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I think all of us are fully expecting warmth well into October. Frankly the models have largely held a steady hand with this. How it finally cracks will be interesting.


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