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Wintry Possible Snow & Ice Threat Nov 14-15

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73E602C2-604B-437E-A4A7-A7B29AEC601B.png I have a 5-40% chance, in my county alone! Going to be a nail biter...
 
Pretty beastly cold core low heading across the Arkla-miss region on the NAM. Is this unusual for November? I'd be jumping for joy if this were late December
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Pretty beastly cold core low heading across the Arkla-miss region on the NAM. Is this unusual for November? I'd be jumping for joy if this were late December
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If the track of the 5H low was suppressed to the south, say tracking through GA/FL panhandle area then this setup would deliver a nice winter storm for many. However since it's tracking a bit to the north the 850mb winds are bringing in some warm air at the upper levels and the CAD just isn't stout enough for anything other than ice. An unusual setup for November though.
 
GFS/CMC coming in colder on 12z for MS and now parts of central Alabama, Alabama may see little ice out of it.
 
Fv3 coming in colder as well
 
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Brick Tamland said:
So, what's keeping this from happening? Because it is crazy for a model to show that much and there not be any frozen precip here.
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IDK, I've always been told that upper lows cold core are hard to predict
 
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