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Wintry Possible Snow & Ice Threat Nov 14-15 (1 Viewer)

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Crazy to me that it seems places in the deep south see snow every year before we see it here.
I think it has a lot to with the fact that our early season cold air invasions drop down out of Canada into the middle of the country. We don’t benefit a whole lot from that type of HP placement. Just my amateur take
 

metwannabe

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Btw I find this from the Rah NWS a little comical and even a touch of resentment that this storm is occurring now... Lol

If this were December or January, we would most likely have 20s near surface temperatures, with much more freezing rain. It is not mid winter, it is mid-November. Therefore, this is not a classical time to have a classical winter storm either.
 

metwannabe

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Crazy to me that it seems places in the deep south see snow every year before we see it here.
Deep south yes but also those areas are further west, as in west of the mountains (as RC noted), nothing to inhibit the cold air and further from Atlantic maritime influence.
 
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Matthew East posted this on Facebook.

Wednesday 10am Weather Update:

Very complex setup around the region tonight into Thursday. There will be a very mature, pronounced cold air damming setup in place, and the result will likely be a significant round of freezing rain and sleet for portions of western NC and far NW SC.

As is always the case in this type of setup, there will be a lot of variability depending on elevation and precipitation intensity as well as precise temperatures.

Anyone in the piedmont down through roughly the I-85 corridor or so could see a few sleet pellets mixed in with the rain, but in that area, just get ready for a very cold, soaking rain.

The most significant winter weather impacts with this system will definitely be in the mountains. Again, elevation will make a huge difference, and one of the trickiest aspects of this system for the High Country will be how much precip falls as sleet and how much falls as freezing rain.

Trying to get overly specific is probably a fool's errand, but I will simply say that many mountain locations will see significant accumulations of ice. In fact, I fully expect the hardest-hit locations to pick up at least 0.25" and likely 0.5" in spots. There will also be sleet accumulation involved as well.

For the mountains, I fully expect problems with the power grid to develop by later tonight and Thursday morning. Travel will likely become very dangerous in some areas as the night progresses.

For the foothills, extremely tough call. In general, the closer to the mountains you are, the more freezing precipitation you will see. I think once you get down to a Shelby to Hickory to King line, any issues would likely be minor and in the nuisance category. Northwest of there, the potential increases for at least some accumulations of freezing rain with some sleet mixed in.

This will be a healthy rain event for the piedmont with another 1-2" of rain likely with some locally higher amounts. With the ground saturated and creeks and streams full (and in flood in some instances), some flooding problems could develop.
 

Rain Cold

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Btw I find this from the Rah NWS a little comical and even a touch of resentment that this storm is occurring now... Lol

If this were December or January, we would most likely have 20s near surface temperatures, with much more freezing rain. It is not mid winter, it is mid-November. Therefore, this is not a classical time to have a classical winter storm either.
Yeah I thought that was funny too.
 
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Ugh 34 degrees and moderately raining. I hate these setups when you’re just on the edge of freezing and rain instead of snow is falling. On the bright side I do believe I’ll see my first flurries tomorrow.
 
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The hrrr is interesting, if it was to verify, there would be alot more sleet than zr/ kinda like that storm back in January 2016 where it was expected to give cad areas significant zr but was a bust and
Poured significant sleet
 
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I wouldn't put much stock in the HRRR, it's been my experience that it is pretty bad with handling thermal profiles and the Tidbits maps look off. Here's a sounding for an area in the "ice" zone but verbatim would be a cold 35F and rain.
upload_2018-11-14_15-1-28.png
 

ForsythSnow

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The hrrr is interesting, if it was to verify, there would be alot more sleet than zr/ kinda like that storm back in January 2016 where it was expected to give cad areas significant zr but was a bust and
Poured significant sleet
Speaking of which, the HRRR seems to be busting too warm on surface temps.

 
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The hrrr earlier was not matching the correct ptype based off the sounding, but now it's starting to, interesting trend for the triad
 
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