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Wintry Possible Snow & Ice Threat Nov 14-15 (1 Viewer)

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Sleet actually did mix in according to a friend in the Statesville area so the HRRR was right in identifying the potential threat of IP
It wasn't widespread, at least from reports I've seen across the areas wxsouth mentioned. Sure some patches where it may have mixed in due to higher rates but not widespread sleet. The 3km NAM did quite well in forecasting the areas that saw ice IMO.
 
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Anyone else from the central-western piedmont of NC see any sleet or sleet/rain mix this morning? (I'll be making another retrospective winter storm map later tomorrow on the storm so it would help!)
We may have had a very little sleet but I never saw any, even way up here. We dodged a bullet though. mainly 31-32 at the height of things. Had it been 29-30 like many models forecast, we would have had terrible power issues with so many oaks with leaves still on them.
 
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It wasn't widespread, at least from reports I've seen across the areas wxsouth mentioned. Sure some patches where it may have mixed in due to higher rates but not widespread sleet. The 3km NAM did quite well in forecasting the areas that saw ice IMO.
There were reports of sleet in the western suburbs of the Charlotte metro area, Kannapolis, Sailsbury, and sleet was so heavy in areas east of the mountains like Rutherford & Cleveland counties that it was beginning to accumulate on some of the roadways.

WUS82 KGSP 151403
SPSGSP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
903 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

NCZ056-068-508-151615-
Catawba-Cleveland-Greater Rutherford-
Including the cities of Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Shelby,
Kings Mountain, Forest City, Rutherfordton, and Spindale
903 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...POCKETS OF SLEET PRODUCING SLICK ROADS REPORTED ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING...

Pockets of sleet have been reported this morning across portions
of eastern and northern Rutherford County, especially near the
South Mountains. This has resulted in some slick roads.
Additional sleet may be seen across portions of western Catawba
and northern Cleveland Counties before the precipitation tapers
off between now and 10 AM.

If sleet-covered roads are encountered, slow down and allow
plenty of space between yourself and surrounding vehicles.
 
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There were reports of sleet in the western suburbs of the Charlotte metro area, Kannapolis, Sailsbury, and sleet was so heavy in areas east of the mountains like Rutherford & Cleveland counties that it was beginning to accumulate on some of the roadways.

WUS82 KGSP 151403
SPSGSP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
903 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

NCZ056-068-508-151615-
Catawba-Cleveland-Greater Rutherford-
Including the cities of Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Shelby,
Kings Mountain, Forest City, Rutherfordton, and Spindale
903 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...POCKETS OF SLEET PRODUCING SLICK ROADS REPORTED ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING...

Pockets of sleet have been reported this morning across portions
of eastern and northern Rutherford County, especially near the
South Mountains. This has resulted in some slick roads.
Additional sleet may be seen across portions of western Catawba
and northern Cleveland Counties before the precipitation tapers
off between now and 10 AM.

If sleet-covered roads are encountered, slow down and allow
plenty of space between yourself and surrounding vehicles.
Here’s why I say the HRRR did bad. Here was the sleet forecast map it showed before the event started. The sleet was nowhere nearly as widespread as it modeled. It’s known for poorly handling thermal profiles and p-type. I’ve been burned by it in the past before I realized that it has a bias of this, something important for our area since events are always so marginal.
upload_2018-11-15_22-39-46.png

The RGEM did very well, it seems to handle CAD quite well but sometimes is too cold.
73A31DE5-B5E6-4BA5-9AF2-CBC74CECFE3F.jpeg

CMC was also solid.
C9EDC46D-3FEC-4C54-A5FC-390F52951F1F.jpeg
Overall I think the best 3 models were the RGEM, CMC, and the 3km/12km NAM.
 
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Here’s why I say the HRRR did bad. Here was the sleet forecast map it showed before the event started. The sleet was nowhere nearly as widespread as it modeled. It’s known for poorly handling thermal profiles and p-type. I’ve been burned by it in the past before I realized that it has a bias of this, something important for our area since events are always so marginal.
View attachment 7446

The RGEM did very well, it seems to handle CAD quite well but sometimes is too cold.
View attachment 7447

CMC was also solid.
View attachment 7448
Overall I think the best 3 models were the RGEM, CMC, and the 3km/12km NAM.
Yes, I already recognized that the area of sleet wasn't anywhere near as widespread or intense as the HRRR forecast on some of its runs but it did actually sleet over a "widespread" area unlike you previously claimed and accumulate in many spots well east of the mountains (and as far south as nearly to GSP (sleet was also reported in Gaffney, SC), but the HRRR was the only model to even show this as a remote possibility. You also have to keep in mind that most trace/light accumulating events go unreported, I've studied many storms just like this one and that's by far & away the largest reporting bias in historical records of winter wx around here. The reports that are available from yesterday via social media and personal communication clearly suggest the area of sleet stretched as far east as portions of the Charlotte metro. It's not a total bust and that has to be given due consideration imo in the context of other NWP, and if you blended w/ the other models it makes sense to include the potential for a brief period of sleet east of the mountains when heavier precipitation arrived in the morning hours yesterday, that's likely what I would have forecasted and many mentioned it as a possibility during the morning. Going full boar on the HRRR and suggesting we'd see up to an inch of sleet is reckless in light of everything that was going on, but not even considering it as a possibility when you looked at other modeling wasn't the right way to handle this either. A compromise solution between the HRRR and other NWP was closest to reality.
 
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Yes, I already recognized that the area of sleet wasn't anywhere near as widespread or intense as the HRRR forecast on some of its runs but it did actually sleet over a "widespread" area unlike you previously claimed and accumulate in many spots well east of the mountains (and as far south as nearly to GSP (sleet was also reported in Gaffney, SC), but the HRRR was the only model to even show this as a remote possibility. You also have to keep in mind that most trace/light accumulating events go unreported, I've studied many storms just like this one and that's by far & away the largest reporting bias in historical records of winter wx around here. The reports that are available from yesterday via social media and personal communication clearly suggest the area of sleet stretched as far east as portions of the Charlotte metro. It's not a total bust and that has to be given due consideration imo in the context of other NWP, and if you blended w/ the other models it makes sense to include the potential for a brief period of sleet east of the mountains when heavier precipitation arrived in the morning hours yesterday, that's likely what I would have forecasted and many mentioned it as a possibility during the morning. Going full boar on the HRRR and suggesting we'd see up to an inch of sleet is reckless in light of everything that was going on, but not even considering it as a possibility when you looked at other modeling wasn't the right way to handle this either. A compromise solution between the HRRR and other NWP was closest to reality.
Read what I said again, I said it wasn’t as widespread as what wxsouth showed and had previously mentioned that sleet wasn’t nearly as far south/east as he or the HRRR were showing. Within that context, yes, the sleet wasn’t as widespread as what wxsouth or the HRRR indicated. I think when you look at what happened, the areas that saw more than just a quick burst of sleet and actually saw sustained sleet for a few hours, the RGEM, CMC and to a lesser extent 3km NAM ended up handling things quite well. These models indicated the potential for bursts of sleet in other areas via soundings, 925mb temp predictions, etc but they didn’t depict sustained sleet for hours in areas that saw only a few bursts or even none at all like the HRRR did. We may have a difference of opinion on performance/expectations here and that’s fine, I’m just sharing my experience and why I don’t like or use the HRRR or even consider blending it. There are better models like the RGEM and 3km/12km NAM to use for blending the data and making a forecast, IMO. To each his own!
 
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Read what I said again, I said it wasn’t as widespread as what wxsouth showed and had previously mentioned that sleet wasn’t nearly as far south/east as he or the HRRR were showing. Within that context, yes, the sleet wasn’t as widespread as what wxsouth or the HRRR indicated. I think when you look at what happened, the areas that saw more than just a quick burst of sleet and actually saw sustained sleet for a few hours, the RGEM, CMC and to a lesser extent 3km NAM ended up handling things quite well. These models indicated the potential for bursts of sleet in other areas via soundings, 925mb temp predictions, etc but they didn’t depict sustained sleet for hours in areas that saw only a few bursts or even none at all like the HRRR did. We may have a difference of opinion on performance/expectations here and that’s fine, I’m just sharing my experience and why I don’t like or use the HRRR or even consider blending it. There are better models like the RGEM and 3km/12km NAM to use for blending the data and making a forecast, IMO. To each his own!
Don't get snappy with me... Yes, I read what you said. My point is which I've made pretty clear from the beginning & I'll reiterate again is that HRRR was the only model to show even a quick burst of IP east of the mountains which did in fact happen but wasn't as widespread as forecast. However, it actually was in fact a pretty widespread area that saw sleet in some way, shape, or form, east of the Appalachians unlike you previously claimed, areas west of Charlotte in the far SW piedmont picked up a quick dusting from it in fact. :) This is where we diverge.
 
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