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Wintry Possible Snow & Ice Threat Nov 14-15

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I believe Charlotte had an ice storm around Thanksgiving in 1971. This was followed by a large snowstorm a little over a week later in early December 1971. Fifty years ago today(November 11-12, 1968) Charlotte received 2.5" of snow. My brother said there was thundersnow during this event.
 
Quick question: does the "Snow Depth" product you see associated with these models come straight from the model itself or is it derived by the sites that typically host the models (TT, PivotalWeather, etc.)?
 
snowlover91 said:
Convinced of what?
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LR Nam may be toss by many and including me. Although, the Nam was the first to pick up on this upper low from the gulf and ive been saying this for days, so take it as you want, but it's a model and for that I can't ignore it.
 
331820CA-BD0C-474E-B561-9CBD78EA0978.png Jimmy, wax the sled!! Latest NAM!
Somebody just got Jean Claude Van NAM’d
 
SnowNiner said:
It's showing exactly what I want, 6 inches of snow! That's how I know it's crazy! Lol.
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I know what your saying how crazy that models is, but I've seen the Nam on short range done a great job with snow/ice events better than others. No it's not the best, but it's consistent with this setup and like I said earlier, it was the first to pick out this upper low in the long range.
 
I'm assuming that the NAM is picking up on some brightbanding (heavy rain/IP) reason why it's showing sleet acumm even when the model just says all rain in some of those areas
 
accu35 said:
I know it's the nam, but it can't be ignored
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Nam is showing the same thing other models are which is a ice event for the mountains and immediate CAD regions. No snow. People on here posting the clown maps and thinking it’s showing snow are going to be disappointed because it’s not and nowhere close. Soundings show a distinct warm nose and p-type also indicates ice. Tropical tidbit maps on the NAM are awful in these setups because of the algorithm used.
 
Everyone, PLEASE do yourself a favor and DO NOT use the tropical tidbit snow maps for the nam in a setup like this. The algorithim used there has a difficult time distinguishing between 33F cold rain, sleet, snow and zr. Pivotal weather snow maps use a much better algorithm that matches up with the thermal profile. Here is the real snow map that matches the thermal profile and this is even overdone as it’s a 10:1 ratio which is probably a bit high but it gives a rough idea.
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