Wintry Possible Snow & Ice Threat Nov 14-15

[Nomanslandva]

Look at the warm nose at 825 and 800. And look at the very cold dew points just go poof at that level when the precip starts at hour 57 and 60 far right. Also remember warm nose is often under done by the models so looks like no chance at snow even up here. Unless the CAD trends stronger I guess.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 7347 Jimmy, wax the sled!! Latest NAM!
Somebody just got Jean Claude Van NAM’d

Ice ice baby. Global warming signature. The CAD boundary has shifted into Columbia SC and Macon GA. I know this isn’t probable but god NAMmit if it isn’t exciting

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Today’s storm: this is as cold a November rain as you’ll ever see around here

Thursday’s storm: hold my beer

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Since the title of this thread says "possible ice threat" i am going to assume there wont be any snow in North MS or West TN?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Question. Does this setup resemble some of those classic meteorological busts where they call for rain and that CAD just doesn’t let go so we end up with half an inch of ice? Thoughts?

 

[accu35]

Overall so far, nights 0z trended colder. BTW, I'm not saying all this is snow, this is a ice setup if anything.

 

[Tarheelwx]

Precip rates seem way too high and temps too warm for a major ice storm. Drop the temps into the mid 20's or cut the rates in half and you might have a major issue.
TW

 

[accu35]

Question. Does this setup resemble some of those classic meteorological busts where they call for rain and that CAD just doesn’t let go so we end up with half an inch of ice? Thoughts?

There's been plenty bust good or bad, who knows what's gonna happen, but it's fun to track esp this early.

 

[SnowNiner]

None of that is snow.

Oh I know. Lol, in reality it's not going to be ice imby either. Just a nice sweet November cold cold rain! Don't look at the nam until it's inside 24 hours imo.

 

[snowlover91]

Oh I know. Lol, in reality it's not going to be ice imby either. Just a nice sweet November cold cold rain! Don't look at the nam until it's inside 24 hours.

The NAM is very good with thermal profiles at this range and if anything I expect it may trend a touch colder at the surface. There will definitely be some ice in the mountains and immediate CAD regions but with daytime heating, latent heat release, heavy rates and marginal temps to start the ice should transition to just a very cold rain within a few hours Thursday morning.

 

[accu35]

for fun

 

[olhausen]

Since the title of this thread says "possible ice threat" i am going to assume there wont be any snow in North MS or West TN?

I think there’s a better chance of some frozen precipitation in north western Tennessee then the Carolinas. I won’t lie it’s hard not to get a little excited seeing these opportunities this early twice in one week before mid November. That said no one should get thier hopes up to much from these ridiculous clown maps.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

The NAM is very good with thermal profiles at this range and if anything I expect it may trend a touch colder at the surface. There will definitely be some ice in the mountains and immediate CAD regions but with daytime heating, latent heat release, heavy rates and marginal temps to start the ice should transition to just a very cold rain within a few hours Thursday morning.

Ok, Ok, ... We already know what you are screaming. Folks just want to see if the NAM is going to be right about the cold air damming. Everyone on here knows that this event will be freezing rain and sleet if there is any winter weather, but we all get a kick out of posting clown maps from different models.

 

[snowlover91]

Ok, Ok, ... We already know what you are screaming. Folks just want to see if the NAM is going to be right about the cold air damming. Everyone on here knows that this event will be freezing rain and sleet if there is any winter weather, but we all get a kick out of posting clown maps from different models.

Unfortunately not everyone who visits this or other boards are seasoned enough to know this. The NAM is very good with the CAD and with all globals showing something similar to the 3km nam I would say it has solid support.

 

[SimeonNC]

I just use the TT clown maps as indicators of frozen precip.

 

[Nomanslandva]

Euro is colder again. More so at 850 than the surface but a little there. Still looks too warm above 850 for snow.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gfs 850s were just a bit colder and nam 12km was just slightly colder in general, but the 3km was more realeastic this run

 

[NCSNOW]

Poster on another forum posted the RGEM never switches a lot of NW NC areas over. The 3k Nam does however. Nice little short term Model war or difference. See which handles it better. That way will know when a better opportunity comes about in a couple weeks for a lot more folks.

 

[snowlover91]

I just use the TT clown maps as indicators of frozen precip.

Only issue I've seen with that is it will show areas where temps are say 32.5 to 34F as "frozen" when cold rain is what actually verifies. The p-type graphs on TT are pretty good but the snowfall maps for the NAM are horrible, I have no idea why they haven't been updated/fixed since other sites like Pivotal use much better algorithms to determine accumulations.

 

[Tarheel1]

Poster on another forum posted the RGEM never switches a lot of NW NC areas over. The 3k Nam does however. Nice little short term Model war or difference. See which handles it better. That way will know when a better opportunity comes about in a couple weeks for a lot more folks.

The RGEM is usually one of the coldest, iciest models , wrt CAD events, but usually slightly too cold , iirc.? We will see how this unfolds