I have a 5-40% chance, in my county alone! Going to be a nail biter...Wintry Possible Snow & Ice Threat Nov 14-15
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I have a 5-40% chance, in my county alone! Going to be a nail biter...
Pretty beastly cold core low heading across the Arkla-miss region on the NAM. Is this unusual for November? I'd be jumping for joy if this were late December
NAM warmer this run. Still has zr in NC mountains and cad areas, but cold is not as stout.
TW
TW
If the track of the 5H low was suppressed to the south, say tracking through GA/FL panhandle area then this setup would deliver a nice winter storm for many. However since it's tracking a bit to the north the 850mb winds are bringing in some warm air at the upper levels and the CAD just isn't stout enough for anything other than ice. An unusual setup for November though.
Lol I posted it at the same time. Just deleted..makes it a little more worrisome for folks to our north..if south (cold) trends continue, watch out
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The FV3 looks like the same garbage as the GFS . Gonna be a long winter with bogus snow maps . At least they are pretty to look at
B
Brick Tamland
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So, what's keeping this from happening? Because it is crazy for a model to show that much and there not be any frozen precip here.
I guess in the heavy rain bands, some IP may mix in the first half, no wonder it showing snow accum
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