Snowflowxxl
Member
4/5/17 is my comparison for this event for now.
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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
Dawgdaze22
Member
Still looks like a nasty line on the CAMS tho they still got over 2 days to change, lots of uncertainty with this one 
Yeah this one still has potential to be big, all it takes is a shift in the MCS miles north to setup a pseudo warm front in areas like N AL/GA into NC, or ofc it can go the other way and go south like the NAM shows, but where this MCS begins slowing down and trains, is likely where the boundary will setup and storms will form along it/south of it, sorta similar to the last system which was a MCS 
Jrips2710
Member
This probably got posted this morning but NWS Birmingham didn't seem too enthused. Appreciate that they don't always follow the SPC map exactly. They typically have a good idea of what to expect...
"This lead impulse will greatly impact the prospects for severe weather from the late morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Models have trended a bit slower with the 500 mb trough and surface low which could allow for greater refocusing along the cold front. The 12 km NAM is very bullish with eye-popping parameters based on an idealistic scenario, the kind that rarely seem to verify. At this time, this has a low probability of occurring, but if it does, a significant tornado threat would be on the table. Many times the 12 km NAM`s convective scheme
minimizes the impact of the lead impulse, and this could very well be case in this situation. The most likely scenario is for morning storms to result in an effective warm front across the middle of our area, with veered surface winds across the warm sector. However, substantial instability is likely to develop by early afternoon across the warm sector, with CAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and strong 0-6 km shear in place. Storm initiation will depend on how much low-level convergence can develop behind the morning storms. Any storms in this environment will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado."
"This lead impulse will greatly impact the prospects for severe weather from the late morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Models have trended a bit slower with the 500 mb trough and surface low which could allow for greater refocusing along the cold front. The 12 km NAM is very bullish with eye-popping parameters based on an idealistic scenario, the kind that rarely seem to verify. At this time, this has a low probability of occurring, but if it does, a significant tornado threat would be on the table. Many times the 12 km NAM`s convective scheme
minimizes the impact of the lead impulse, and this could very well be case in this situation. The most likely scenario is for morning storms to result in an effective warm front across the middle of our area, with veered surface winds across the warm sector. However, substantial instability is likely to develop by early afternoon across the warm sector, with CAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and strong 0-6 km shear in place. Storm initiation will depend on how much low-level convergence can develop behind the morning storms. Any storms in this environment will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado."
Brent
Member
yikes
hopefully we can get an early round to work over the atmosphere. The radar in Oklahoma is a lot busier than I expected
The NWS here seems to think it'll be worse to the east of Dallas
Shaggy
Member
Yeah not liking the look on the broken line over SC/NC.......wouldn't be writing this one off just yet.
Attachments
At this point I could see this go either way. This could get ugly quick. IMHO, at this point, you better hope for a MCS or something to choke out the upper parts of the region. I think the MCS is the less likely situation right now.
farleydawg792
Member
Agree.. If that MCS does not form, AL/GA and even into SC are going to see the event escalate quickly.
It's very odd seeing the NMMB being much more aggressive than the ARW. Kind of makes me pause.
CAMs have been on and off with MCSs, especially around the S central US, in TX there have been a few busted MCSs which never developed, and one that did develop, developed north of its forecasted area, COVID 19 is really messing with the models
Starting to see warm sector hodographs have destructive VBV in around 2-4km in them as well
GFS shows that MCS 
farleydawg792
Member
farleydawg792
Member
Just a bit of information, the RAP performed the worst by far of the short range models the last event.
RAP was pretty terrible last event for sure. I think if you don't like SVR storms, the 00z run was a better run for sure. I wouldn't go MDT in new day 2 in a few hours. not yet....
farleydawg792
Member
Agreed, but its interesting to see the models still do not have a consistent grasp on this system. Tomorrows short range runs will tell us so much more!
Absolutely. Just adding a tidbit on its performance.
farleydawg792
Member
No worries!
Jrips2710
Member
SPC stays with the enhanced risk
Brent
Member
Jrips2710
Member
Jrips2710
Member
Jrips2710
Member
12k NAM going nuts again. Much higher instability values advecting north this run. Let’s see if the 3k backs it up... 
Jrips2710
Member
3k NAM rebounds better for the afternoon storms. The morning junk isn’t as widespread/inhibiting. Looking forward to seeing how things trend tomorrow. Goodnight all!
Yeah NAM12km is quite volatile, NAM 3km took a step in that direction
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The RAP was absolutely horrible with the northern extent of the last events warm sector
HSVweather
Member
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Bmx doesn't sound very confident about well anything.
Thursday morning through Tuesday.
The suppressed weather pattern will feature a low-amplitude trough
Wednesday night into Thursday across the Lower Mississippi Valley
and eastward into Alabama. A residual low theta-e airmass will be in
place with a pinched warm sector to our west. Storms are expected to
move across LA and MS overnight and become elevated as they move
into Alabama. There may be a non-zero threat for damaging winds and
quarter size hail with this activity between 4 AM and 10 AM.
This lead impulse will greatly impact the prospects for severe
weather from the late morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Many
times models underemphasize the impact of the lead impulse, and this
could very well be case in this situation. The most likely scenario
is for morning storms to result in an effective front across the
middle or southern part of our area, with somewhat veered surface
wind to the south of the front. Substantial instability could
develop by early afternoon across the warm sector which may
encompass the southern half of our forecast area. SBCAPE of
2500-4000 J/kg and strong 0-6 km shear will easily support
damaging winds and large hail with any storms that develop. North
of the front, there is less of a threat for damaging winds and
large hail with elevated storms. The tornado threat south of the
front is extremely difficult to gauge due to mesoscale details
that are impossible to know at this time. The general idea is for
veered surface winds to temper the tornado threat. It is also
possible that the entire scenario above never materializes to due
to a major disruption from morning activity. In other words
forecast confidence is unusually low, and people should prepare
for severe weather including tornadoes.
Thursday morning through Tuesday.
The suppressed weather pattern will feature a low-amplitude trough
Wednesday night into Thursday across the Lower Mississippi Valley
and eastward into Alabama. A residual low theta-e airmass will be in
place with a pinched warm sector to our west. Storms are expected to
move across LA and MS overnight and become elevated as they move
into Alabama. There may be a non-zero threat for damaging winds and
quarter size hail with this activity between 4 AM and 10 AM.
This lead impulse will greatly impact the prospects for severe
weather from the late morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Many
times models underemphasize the impact of the lead impulse, and this
could very well be case in this situation. The most likely scenario
is for morning storms to result in an effective front across the
middle or southern part of our area, with somewhat veered surface
wind to the south of the front. Substantial instability could
develop by early afternoon across the warm sector which may
encompass the southern half of our forecast area. SBCAPE of
2500-4000 J/kg and strong 0-6 km shear will easily support
damaging winds and large hail with any storms that develop. North
of the front, there is less of a threat for damaging winds and
large hail with elevated storms. The tornado threat south of the
front is extremely difficult to gauge due to mesoscale details
that are impossible to know at this time. The general idea is for
veered surface winds to temper the tornado threat. It is also
possible that the entire scenario above never materializes to due
to a major disruption from morning activity. In other words
forecast confidence is unusually low, and people should prepare
for severe weather including tornadoes.
Snowflowxxl
Member
I’m not convinced an afternoon threat will even materialize
Shaggy
Member
Raleigh says deck isnstacked against us again.
Regardless, this system has the potential to produce severe weather
as far north as central NC Thursday into Thursday evening. Bottom
line, expect changes to this evolving situation as severe storm /
tornado potential will be highly dependent on the amount of
stabilizing rain over NC, the early to mid day thunderstorm
potential to our south along the warm front, and the potential for
storms to our south to cut off WAA moisture transport Thursday
afternoon.
Regardless, this system has the potential to produce severe weather
as far north as central NC Thursday into Thursday evening. Bottom
line, expect changes to this evolving situation as severe storm /
tornado potential will be highly dependent on the amount of
stabilizing rain over NC, the early to mid day thunderstorm
potential to our south along the warm front, and the potential for
storms to our south to cut off WAA moisture transport Thursday
afternoon.
NoSnowJoe
Member
FCC graphic this morning
Psalm 148:8
Member
- Joined
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Yes! They were dead in last time in their threat categories.. and very fine forecasters fir that matter... not to take anything away from SPC, but BMX has a better handle seems due to them knowing their area and how things react in the past... hoping BMX is right again!
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
They didn't really seem too enthusiastic about it being a non event either atleast from the afd this morning. You can really tell that the models have been giving them fits over the last couple of weeks.
Snowflowxxl
Member
The HRRR looks like a complete non event here. Maybe some severe action in the southern parts of AL and GA. There is no afternoon threat as I have supsected.
This event reminds me of last week's event. Barring any changes, I do not see this being the doomsday outbreak that was being advertised. Maybe the southern portions of GA/AL but even then... meh.
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Jessy89
Member
It’s a isolated severe threat! I think it will be the morning rain. Followed by isolated severe storms of course a isolated tornado is possible.
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Snowflowxxl
Member
The HRRR isn’t even showing isolated storms. The morning mess diminishes the threat almost entirely