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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd

mbway091 said:
I feel like even the models that weren't showing much rain to stabilize things in NC were still keeping the severe threat well to our south.
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I agree. Didn’t see a big threat for y’all’s area with this one.
 
Sure watch any isolated cells that might develop. One or two may trigger a severe thunderstorm warning. May gusty winds or hail. That’s about it. Also have a marginal risk to watch Saturday for some. I don’t like severe weather but I watch and track it because it has a impact on people lives!


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Lol from enhanced to general thunderstorms for many. My map I made in banter yesterday is about carbon copy of the latest SPC map.
 
I’m stuck in the 40s. I knew I wasn’t going to hit 70.
 
I feel like the MCS is moving through WAY earlier than modeled. Most models didn't have it here until noon, when we might have sun shine by noon today. Wouldn't that allow more time for the atmosphere to destabilize. All the models are late with the MCS.
 
Some short range models are hinting at some rough storms around 5am Friday if your in western to central NC. Discrete storms.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I feel like the MCS is moving through WAY earlier than modeled. Most models didn't have it here until noon, when we might have sun shine by noon today. Wouldn't that allow more time for the atmosphere to destabilize. All the models are late with the MCS.
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It’s possible.
 
It almost feels like they overreacted the other direction. The rain has stopped in West Georgia and the clouds are starting to thin. I know it’s an off hour HRRR, but the last run is showing redevelopment in the afternoon again.
 
Cbmatt2408 said:
It almost feels like they overreacted the other direction. The rain has stopped in West Georgia and the clouds are starting to thin. I know it’s an off hour HRRR, but the last run is showing redevelopment in the afternoon again.
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Agreed.

I think folks just need to hold their horses and let the day play out first. It's only 10am and the front's still way back in Mississippi.
 
Greg Fishel had this to say about the threat and SPC.

SEVERE WEATHER?

I should have shared last night. I was looking at things, knew we were in a level 3 risk area, and I kept asking myself “what am I missing?” The folks at the storm prediction center in Norman, Oklahoma are some of the very best at what they do and they have all my respect. This morning they changed their forecast dramatically to basically a non event except for the southeastern corner of our state. So I’m somewhat reassured this morning that I’m not going crazy! Happy Thursday!
 
With the way this MCS has been going, by the time it finally gets over me it might rain an hour. Lol

Then we'll see what happens afterward with the atmosphere.
 
This is completely anecdotal and unscientific, but at least here, low clouds are rapidly lifting while moving from east to west.

Also, I notice steam rising from the ground. Typically, when this happened in the past, there was another round of storms that day.
 
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SouthATLwx said:
This is completely anecdotal and unscientific, but at least here, low clouds are rapidly lifting while moving from west to east.

Also, I notice steam rising from the ground. Typically, when this happened in the past, there was another round of storms that day.
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There's still a 5% tornado risk throughout GA so it wouldn't be surprising to see a few. They don't have to be strong to mess up your day if you're caught in a bad position.
 
SouthATLwx said:
This is completely anecdotal and unscientific, but at least here, low clouds are rapidly lifting while moving from west to east.

Also, I notice steam rising from the ground. Typically, when this happened in the past, there was another round of storms that day.
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Yeah, if it clears up early enough the rain from the morning just makes things more humid and can help fire off storms later.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I feel like the MCS is moving through WAY earlier than modeled. Most models didn't have it here until noon, when we might have sun shine by noon today. Wouldn't that allow more time for the atmosphere to destabilize. All the models are late with the MCS.
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Here in jefferson county sun is out and its warming fairly quickly
 
14z HRRR showing some decent helicity swaths still. It also initialized the rain a tick behind where it actually is.
HRRRSE_con_uphlysw_010.png

Not to mention starting to see some higher sfcbased CAPE getting into MS/AL. this will be very interesting to watch
sbcp.gif
 
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