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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd

SouthATLwx said:
This morning round of rain / embedded storms seems to be progressing fairly quickly. It's already through BHM, with things fairly clear behind it.
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Will be interesting to watch temps...I’m @ 53 right now with light to moderate rain. Will be interested to see if anything pops to the west with all the convection to the south. Several tornado warnings on-going right now with the MCS.
 
I don't understand this "oh, we're not in an enhanced/mod area, so it's a bust and we're not getting anything" mentality some have here. Models still are showing a threat for slight areas (north metro). Sure, we may get just a rumble of thunder, but we could also get something much worse.

It's like some of you want a tornado to drop on your house.
 
CamWX said:
I don't understand this "oh, we're not in an enhanced/mod area, so it's a bust and we're not getting anything" mentality some have here. Models still are showing a threat for slight areas (north metro). Sure, we may get just a rumble of thunder, but we could also get something much worse.

It's like some of you want a tornado to drop on your house.
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Hatched outlook boxes are an essential part of tornadogenesis, along with the colors orange, red, and purple.
 
DustinWx said:
Dude you are about to get a timeout
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Why? If you go from a level 3 hatched to a marginal risk in less than 12 hours, that shows you probably never should have been in the risk to begin with. I’m just stating facts. None of the models showed anything warranting NC being in a level 3 hatched. If you are handing out timeouts for stating evidence then I don’t know what to say...
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Why? If you go from a level 3 hatched to a marginal risk in less than 12 hours, that shows you probably never should have been in the risk to begin with. I’m just stating facts. None of the models showed anything warranting NC being in a level 3 hatched. If you are handing out timeouts for stating evidence then I don’t know what to say...
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Because you are arguing with posters, bashing the spc, and causing a commotion
 
DustinWx said:
Because you are arguing with posters, bashing the spc, and causing a commotion
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No. Quote one post where I have been arguing with someone? Never happened. When did I cause a commotion? Never happened, I’m just posting what the models are showing. Never bashed the SPC, I just stated that NC never should have been in the 10% hatched risk which is a fact. They got moved to a marginal risk within 12 hours which shows it was an obvious mistake. Not a single model showed that was anywhere near warranted.
 
The back edge of the rain shield is approaching the GA/AL state line around I-20. It appears to be moving at a solid clip. If it can clear out of here completely by lunchtime, that may change things. You really do have to nowcast this.
 
swody1_categorical.png


SPC has significantly cut back on the enhanced risk for today. Redevelopment of storms this afternoon is more in question, and the enhanced risk is now basically along and head of the line of storms this morning,
 
When final line moved through here last night it was nothing more than a little thunder, little wind and little rain.
 
I agree with SPC. I didn’t think the MCS line now would be as much of a big deal because models were all over the place but I think its very evident now that’s what is likely to happen. Also looking at if there is any redevelopment of storms, the best shear axis is well moved east of that area so maybe severe but don’t think that big of a deal.
 
Looks like some storms are firing back in Mississippi.. Will be interesting to see what those will do as they progress eastward.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree with SPC. I didn’t think the MCS line now would be as much of a big deal because models were all over the place but I think its very evident now that’s what is likely to happen. Also looking at if there is any redevelopment of storms, the best shear axis is well moved east of that area so maybe severe but don’t think that big of a deal.
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I feel like even the models that weren't showing much rain to stabilize things in NC were still keeping the severe threat well to our south.
 
mbway091 said:
I feel like even the models that weren't showing much rain to stabilize things in NC were still keeping the severe threat well to our south.
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I agree. Didn’t see a big threat for y’all’s area with this one.
 
Sure watch any isolated cells that might develop. One or two may trigger a severe thunderstorm warning. May gusty winds or hail. That’s about it. Also have a marginal risk to watch Saturday for some. I don’t like severe weather but I watch and track it because it has a impact on people lives!


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Lol from enhanced to general thunderstorms for many. My map I made in banter yesterday is about carbon copy of the latest SPC map.
 
I’m stuck in the 40s. I knew I wasn’t going to hit 70.
 
I feel like the MCS is moving through WAY earlier than modeled. Most models didn't have it here until noon, when we might have sun shine by noon today. Wouldn't that allow more time for the atmosphere to destabilize. All the models are late with the MCS.
 
Some short range models are hinting at some rough storms around 5am Friday if your in western to central NC. Discrete storms.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I feel like the MCS is moving through WAY earlier than modeled. Most models didn't have it here until noon, when we might have sun shine by noon today. Wouldn't that allow more time for the atmosphere to destabilize. All the models are late with the MCS.
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It’s possible.
 
It almost feels like they overreacted the other direction. The rain has stopped in West Georgia and the clouds are starting to thin. I know it’s an off hour HRRR, but the last run is showing redevelopment in the afternoon again.
 
Cbmatt2408 said:
It almost feels like they overreacted the other direction. The rain has stopped in West Georgia and the clouds are starting to thin. I know it’s an off hour HRRR, but the last run is showing redevelopment in the afternoon again.
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Agreed.

I think folks just need to hold their horses and let the day play out first. It's only 10am and the front's still way back in Mississippi.
 
Greg Fishel had this to say about the threat and SPC.

SEVERE WEATHER?

I should have shared last night. I was looking at things, knew we were in a level 3 risk area, and I kept asking myself “what am I missing?” The folks at the storm prediction center in Norman, Oklahoma are some of the very best at what they do and they have all my respect. This morning they changed their forecast dramatically to basically a non event except for the southeastern corner of our state. So I’m somewhat reassured this morning that I’m not going crazy! Happy Thursday!
 
With the way this MCS has been going, by the time it finally gets over me it might rain an hour. Lol

Then we'll see what happens afterward with the atmosphere.
 
This is completely anecdotal and unscientific, but at least here, low clouds are rapidly lifting while moving from east to west.

Also, I notice steam rising from the ground. Typically, when this happened in the past, there was another round of storms that day.
 
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SouthATLwx said:
This is completely anecdotal and unscientific, but at least here, low clouds are rapidly lifting while moving from west to east.

Also, I notice steam rising from the ground. Typically, when this happened in the past, there was another round of storms that day.
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There's still a 5% tornado risk throughout GA so it wouldn't be surprising to see a few. They don't have to be strong to mess up your day if you're caught in a bad position.
 
SouthATLwx said:
This is completely anecdotal and unscientific, but at least here, low clouds are rapidly lifting while moving from west to east.

Also, I notice steam rising from the ground. Typically, when this happened in the past, there was another round of storms that day.
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Yeah, if it clears up early enough the rain from the morning just makes things more humid and can help fire off storms later.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I feel like the MCS is moving through WAY earlier than modeled. Most models didn't have it here until noon, when we might have sun shine by noon today. Wouldn't that allow more time for the atmosphere to destabilize. All the models are late with the MCS.
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Here in jefferson county sun is out and its warming fairly quickly
 
14z HRRR showing some decent helicity swaths still. It also initialized the rain a tick behind where it actually is.
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Not to mention starting to see some higher sfcbased CAPE getting into MS/AL. this will be very interesting to watch
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