Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020
Areas affected...Northeast AL...Northwest GA...Southeast TN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 111820Z - 111945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes will increase
this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely by 19Z.
DISCUSSION...An extensive QLCS has recently intensified across
portions of western AL, with at least one confirmed tornado noted
earlier in Pickens County. Gradually increasing downstream
instability (noted in objective mesoanalysis and recent SWIRLL
soundings) will favor maintenance of this system as it moves into
northeast AL and adjacent portions of northwest GA and southern TN.
Very strong wind profiles will also spread eastward with time, with
1 km AGL flow of 60-70 kt and effective SRH expected to increase
into the 450-650 m2/s2 range. This powerful wind field will continue
to support the potential for relatively widespread damaging wind,
and also embedded circulations capable of producing at least brief
tornadoes. New watch issuance is expected by 19Z to cover these
threats from northeast AL into northwest GA and southern TN.
..Dean/Hart.. 01/11/2020
...Please see
www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...