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Severe Poss severe threat late this week

Brick Tamland said:
Yikes! Wish we had some posters in that area.
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I live in longview tx (bit NE of Tyler). Still kinda new and trying to grasp some of this stuff, but enjoy reading the discussion :). I can tell you some local schools are releasing early in anticipation of storms. people here taking things pretty seriously.
 
Well most recent HRRR/RAP models vs NAM it seems on intensity for parts of East Alabama and GA
 
First tornado warning of the day out now in Oklahoma it's starting now
 
Hodographs today are interesting around Dallas, even with very moist BLs/low levels, hodographs today support LP supercells due to strong storm relative flow E4D5019C-DC3B-40D3-A625-C3AC3391A3F5.png
 
Good rotation with this tor warning
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You can see attempts of towering cumulus already on the radar being capped off at the moment by the EML, right above that cap is 8-8.5C 700mb-500mb LRs, a busy day is about to really beginB955499C-142A-49EA-A741-48484823519E.pngedit* I just saw reed tweeted out something similar, lol
 
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3CAPE has slowly been increasing west of DFW, up to 50jkg, something to watch today
 
I would have thought that the early morning environment in and around Memphis would be more stable but after seeing the moderate risk extending into the area I'm not so certain anymore. :oops:
 
Hrrr has several supercells out ahead of the line during the middle of the night in LA/AR
 
Any chance that south alabama gets a moderate risk tommorow? Future radar on the HRRR shows possibility of supercells ahead of the line and instability is pretty good in south alabamaScreenshot_20200110-151804_Samsung Internet.jpg
 

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This is from the nws of bham discussion. That came out just a little bit ago. Screenshot_20200110-155224_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20200110-155205_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
If correct and models are underestimating like the nws of bham says the liklihood of more tornadoes and strong torndoes will be possible. Lapse rates will probably limit things a bit though i imagine
 
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