My goodness. Tds as wellView attachment 30305
You have they spin up as quick as they go away. ?Have I mentioned here how much I hate QLCS tornadoes. I think so.
Here is why you cannot just equate higher surface temps to more severe weather. The models have slowly adjusted higher surface temps with the stronger WAA, but the flip side is it has also advected warmer air at 925mb and 850mb, effectively hurting both low level lapse rates and 3km Cape. So far low level lapse rates have been very well forecasted by the NAM, 3km NAM and Euro. Add in high shear and linear forcing and you have what we have right now.