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Severe Poss severe threat late this week
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Also this could turn into a derecho event. That could be a worst situation then a tornado situation.. it can cause widespread damage for alot of communities. Especially with how
Much rain we had and the trees could easy be uprooted.. I have seen it before...
Much rain we had and the trees could easy be uprooted.. I have seen it before...
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So what is a derecho, anyway?
"The normal definition I'd use would probably be a widespread wind storm," Laws said on Friday.
"I think the technical definition would be (a storm complex) at least 250 miles long and contain winds of 60 mph like we had and contain tons of damage."
Derechos can contain hurricane-force winds. In fact, the National Weather Service in Huntsville estimated that the portion that rolled through Madison County had winds of 100 mph.
The winds in a derecho blow in straight lines (according to NOAA derecho means "straight" in Spanish).
They are also long-lived events that are bigger and more intense than a squall line that can develop along or ahead of a cold front or an MCS (mesoscale convective system).
"They almost have a life of their own, so once they get going the momentum carries them forward," Laws said. "Thursday's was going from one state to the next, it was huge."
According to NOAA derechos are most common in the Midwest "but are still fairly rare. You might see a derecho about once a year there."
The winds in Thursday's storms were higher than what many people may have experienced.
"It's probably pretty rare for people to experience 60 mph winds, which is our criteria for a severe thunderstorm," Laws said.
"It's a very rare thing. One inch hail and larger ... you're going to remember that kind of thing. Same with 60 mph winds. There's a reason why we put that criteria so high because that's when the extensive damage really starts.
"The normal definition I'd use would probably be a widespread wind storm," Laws said on Friday.
"I think the technical definition would be (a storm complex) at least 250 miles long and contain winds of 60 mph like we had and contain tons of damage."
Derechos can contain hurricane-force winds. In fact, the National Weather Service in Huntsville estimated that the portion that rolled through Madison County had winds of 100 mph.
The winds in a derecho blow in straight lines (according to NOAA derecho means "straight" in Spanish).
They are also long-lived events that are bigger and more intense than a squall line that can develop along or ahead of a cold front or an MCS (mesoscale convective system).
"They almost have a life of their own, so once they get going the momentum carries them forward," Laws said. "Thursday's was going from one state to the next, it was huge."
According to NOAA derechos are most common in the Midwest "but are still fairly rare. You might see a derecho about once a year there."
The winds in Thursday's storms were higher than what many people may have experienced.
"It's probably pretty rare for people to experience 60 mph winds, which is our criteria for a severe thunderstorm," Laws said.
"It's a very rare thing. One inch hail and larger ... you're going to remember that kind of thing. Same with 60 mph winds. There's a reason why we put that criteria so high because that's when the extensive damage really starts.
I dont hey what your trying to say I've been listening to him I'm talking about the spc being so carefree with high risks to major downgrade with places with pds for soundings its baffling
And you might be right. ??? I have also seen the local Mets cry wolf a few times around here when it comes to storms. Then the bad one happens and people are like “we didn’t have no warning”... So in there case it is kinda like lose/lose situation...
06Z ON THE HRRR
NEW BMX OUTLOOK STILL ENHANCED
BMX HAS NOT LOWED THE TOR RISK, IM THINKING WE WILL SEE OR HAVE REPORTS OF SEVERAL TORNADOES IM GOING WITH 2-3 EF2 OR HIGHER(POSS LONG TRACK), THIS IS NOT A FORECAST BUT IS MY PERSONAL OPINION . JUST BY GOING OFF WHAT MY LOCAL NWS OFFICE IS SAYING, NOW THEY HAVENT MENTIONED ANY EF-SCALE NUMBERS
LATEST AFD FROM BMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
244 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020
...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TODAY...
.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0244 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/
Today through Sunday.
Consensus of latest guidance clearly indicates that previous
forecasts are on track with little changes needed other than minor
timing changes. Confidence continues to increase that an intense
QLCS producing widespread damaging winds with isolated gusts to 70
mph possible and embedded quickly developing tornadoes with a
couple strong tornadoes possible. Extensive pre-frontal severe
QLCS has developed as expected, extending from Illinois to the
Texas Coastal Waters with confirmed reports of damaging winds,
a recent TDS east of Shreveport, and a measured 70 mph wind gust
near Beaumont TX. This QLCS will continue to maintain itself
and/or intensify as it encounters a large area of 1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE over Louisiana and Mississippi and the upper trough becomes
more neutrally tilted. This potent shortwave trough will lift
northeastward to the Mid-South by this evening, taking on a
neutral tilt at mid-levels and a negative tilt at upper-levels.
It will be accompanied by a 120kt mid-level speed max behind the
QLCS, with 80-85kts of mid-level flow in closer proximity to the
line, and a 70kt southerly 850mb LLJ. A current broad area of low
pressure will consolidate into a 1000mb deepening surface low, and
the pre-frontal QLCS will continue to race eastward across
Alabama during the day today.
Current light isentropic rain showers are not expected to have
much of an impact on destabilization and high-res guidance is on
board with temperatures rising into the low 70s today with some
mid 70s south. This makes sense given strong southerly flow/warm
advection, and temperatures are already 65-71 degrees as of 2 AM.
These temperatures and mid 60s dew points will result in CAPE
values of 500-1000 J/kg north of I-20 and 1000-1700 J/kg along and
south of I-20. Backed surface winds and the strong LLJ will
result in very strong 0-1 km SRH values of 400-600 m2/s2, with 65
kts of 0-6 km bulk shear oriented parallel to the QLCS, favoring
a continued predominately linear convective mode. The HRRR does
try to show the line breaking up into supercells which does not
appear likely at this time given the shear vector orientation,
though some high res guidance does try to veer shear vectors a bit
by afternoon so some embedded supercells are certainly possible
especially the further south you go. CAMs do still indicate some
pre-line convection developing across our south-central and
southeast counties later this afternoon, which could pose a
supercell tornado threat, but still indicate the line will be the
main show. The strong 0-1km SRH will be very favorable for QLCS
tornadoes (where the line can take on more of a negative tilt and
become orthogonal to the 0-3km shear vector) and tornadoes with
embedded supercells in the line, both of which could be strong.
Damaging winds are also likely with downward momentum transfer and
some pockets of DCAPE, especially in portions of the line that
can orient more perpendicular to the strong LLJ where local wind
gusts of 70 mph will be possible.
Regarding timing, did bump the start time up to 9 AM mainly for
the far northwest counties based on the current line orientation
and radar extrapolation, but most areas will see the threat hold
off until after 11 AM. Also changed the end time to 7 PM as the
line should be in Georgia at that time. Some argument could be
made for upgrading the risk to moderate, but don`t want to get too
caught up in risk levels as everyone should take this seriously
regardless. Severe thunderstorm warnings should also be treated
seriously given the strong wind potential and potential for
tornadoes to spin up with little lead time, and especially mobile
home residents and those with many trees near their home should
consider moving to a safe place even for severe thunderstorm
warnings. Brief heavy downpours along the line may cause minor
flooding of poor drainage areas, but short duration of heavy rain
at any one location should prevent much of a flooding threat. Have
already seen a couple 35 mph gradient wind gusts in our area,
with several sites recording 35-45 mph gusts across Mississippi
and Louisiana so the wind advisory remains on track
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
244 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020
...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TODAY...
.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0244 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/
Today through Sunday.
Consensus of latest guidance clearly indicates that previous
forecasts are on track with little changes needed other than minor
timing changes. Confidence continues to increase that an intense
QLCS producing widespread damaging winds with isolated gusts to 70
mph possible and embedded quickly developing tornadoes with a
couple strong tornadoes possible. Extensive pre-frontal severe
QLCS has developed as expected, extending from Illinois to the
Texas Coastal Waters with confirmed reports of damaging winds,
a recent TDS east of Shreveport, and a measured 70 mph wind gust
near Beaumont TX. This QLCS will continue to maintain itself
and/or intensify as it encounters a large area of 1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE over Louisiana and Mississippi and the upper trough becomes
more neutrally tilted. This potent shortwave trough will lift
northeastward to the Mid-South by this evening, taking on a
neutral tilt at mid-levels and a negative tilt at upper-levels.
It will be accompanied by a 120kt mid-level speed max behind the
QLCS, with 80-85kts of mid-level flow in closer proximity to the
line, and a 70kt southerly 850mb LLJ. A current broad area of low
pressure will consolidate into a 1000mb deepening surface low, and
the pre-frontal QLCS will continue to race eastward across
Alabama during the day today.
Current light isentropic rain showers are not expected to have
much of an impact on destabilization and high-res guidance is on
board with temperatures rising into the low 70s today with some
mid 70s south. This makes sense given strong southerly flow/warm
advection, and temperatures are already 65-71 degrees as of 2 AM.
These temperatures and mid 60s dew points will result in CAPE
values of 500-1000 J/kg north of I-20 and 1000-1700 J/kg along and
south of I-20. Backed surface winds and the strong LLJ will
result in very strong 0-1 km SRH values of 400-600 m2/s2, with 65
kts of 0-6 km bulk shear oriented parallel to the QLCS, favoring
a continued predominately linear convective mode. The HRRR does
try to show the line breaking up into supercells which does not
appear likely at this time given the shear vector orientation,
though some high res guidance does try to veer shear vectors a bit
by afternoon so some embedded supercells are certainly possible
especially the further south you go. CAMs do still indicate some
pre-line convection developing across our south-central and
southeast counties later this afternoon, which could pose a
supercell tornado threat, but still indicate the line will be the
main show. The strong 0-1km SRH will be very favorable for QLCS
tornadoes (where the line can take on more of a negative tilt and
become orthogonal to the 0-3km shear vector) and tornadoes with
embedded supercells in the line, both of which could be strong.
Damaging winds are also likely with downward momentum transfer and
some pockets of DCAPE, especially in portions of the line that
can orient more perpendicular to the strong LLJ where local wind
gusts of 70 mph will be possible.
Regarding timing, did bump the start time up to 9 AM mainly for
the far northwest counties based on the current line orientation
and radar extrapolation, but most areas will see the threat hold
off until after 11 AM. Also changed the end time to 7 PM as the
line should be in Georgia at that time. Some argument could be
made for upgrading the risk to moderate, but don`t want to get too
caught up in risk levels as everyone should take this seriously
regardless. Severe thunderstorm warnings should also be treated
seriously given the strong wind potential and potential for
tornadoes to spin up with little lead time, and especially mobile
home residents and those with many trees near their home should
consider moving to a safe place even for severe thunderstorm
warnings. Brief heavy downpours along the line may cause minor
flooding of poor drainage areas, but short duration of heavy rain
at any one location should prevent much of a flooding threat. Have
already seen a couple 35 mph gradient wind gusts in our area,
with several sites recording 35-45 mph gusts across Mississippi
and Louisiana so the wind advisory remains on track
I agree pretty much be safe I'll be safe here later n watching thanks
YOUDO HE SAME I GET OFF WORK AT 0630 THEN IM SUPPOSED TO TRY AND SLEEP TO BE BACK TONIGHT AT 1830 .. THE SLEEPING PART MAY NOT HAPPEN FOR LONG
TXTornado
Member
HRRR has been trash lately.
---- GETTING REAL IN MS. GOT TREES ON HOUSES WITH INJURIES AND IN LA THERE WE MOBILE HOMES REMOVED FROM THEIR PADS AND THROWN INTO A LAKE UNK INJ
Yikes not good I'm waiting on nws Huntsville discussion they are being slow
Claycochaser
Member
Tornado warned storm in N MISS has winds of 138mph at 2500ft.
WHAT YOU USING TO SEE THAT? CAN YOU SEE WIND SPEEDS ON RADARSCOPE??
gawxnative
Member
Seeing bit of TDS in CC with the cell near Miller , MS now
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Also appears that it knocked offline the KPOE AND KLCH RADARS