Really ready to see what the new HRRR can do
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Severe Poss severe threat late this week
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Yeah, seen those setups where sups come out the gulf and take advantage of Rich low level moisture and stay more discrete
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Should be later on today/tonight. We will really be in it's range solidly tomorrow. It only goes out 36hrs
Just saw a long range NAM 3km that Spann posted and it’s pretty interesting. It wants to actually give the medal for tornado potential to south AL, probably more SE AL and it’s possible.
As the upper level system pulls out, the flow will broaden out and shift H5 winds more westward. That could allow the line to break apart and with the higher instability would allow an elevated tornado threat.
Now we know that the 3km NAM likes to over do discrete convection in the long range, but it’s a thought.
Claycochaser
Member
Just watched the update from BMX and Kevin Laws. Basically, they are tossing numerical guidance on the quality of the warm sector even at this point. That is the make or break with this system and we most likely wont have a handle on it until 12 hours out. Will be watching to the west tomorrow to see how the models verify.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Flurry
Member
SE Alabama is no stranger to Winter Tornadoes
18z 3km NAM may be the weakest run yet. I wouldn’t trust it because I hate the 3km NAM, but you have to take note because it likes to be bullish.
Models are already underdoing thermodynamics, lol what’s new
Really see nothing to change my thoughts tonight. Of the CAMs, the 0z 3km NAM has the weakest event and the WRF-ARW with the strongest with some nice velocity streaks over South Central MS. None of the models tonight fire discrete supercell ahead of the line, because of pretty strong capping.
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Something interesting to note here is that Memphis is currently on the boarder of the marginal and slight risk so this will be a significant jump for them
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Already got yourself a loaded gun sounding from DFW 
Snowflowxxl
Member
Big day ahead. Let’s see if anywhere goes high risk
Being seeing some saying a derecho (likely a serial one) is actually possible
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Can see what the SPC is saying about those areas of supercells that form ahead of the line, hrrr shows this, during the dark.. 
this nocturnal severe threat is no joke, 5.5 -6 C low level LR at 06z during January is pretty impressive itself, you can’t get much better than that during the the coldest time of the year, and solid low level instability along with that, not to mention those insane storm motion (bunkers right at 56kts !!) and man that’s some intense low level shear 
this nocturnal severe threat is no joke, 5.5 -6 C low level LR at 06z during January is pretty impressive itself, you can’t get much better than that during the the coldest time of the year, and solid low level instability along with that, not to mention those insane storm motion (bunkers right at 56kts !!) and man that’s some intense low level shear
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
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Yikes! Wish we had some posters in that area.