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Severe Poss severe threat late this week

I’m Mostly watching for flooding. Too wet and getting wetter.
 
I am not very good at interpreting models while many of you on here are good at that. As I have shared before, I enjoy this site because there are some very smart people on here that share their knowledge. The general consensus appears to be that many of you are wondering (as am I) what the forecasters are seeing in the model output to make them jump the gun so to speak on this event. Of course, just like any forecast, it may bust.

It is extremely rare that we have a an outlook posted that far in advance for a system any time of the year, let alone in January. I think I saw a tweet the other day which mentioned only 4 or 5 times in January that an outlook that far out had been posted. (I will try to find it and post here.) With that said, this event will be a good illustration of a forecaster using models as well as personal skill in making a forecast rather than simply looking at model output. As most of you know, (and some of you are skilled at,) just about anybody can forecast based on model output. The true meteorologist has to do more than that ... and it is a humbling task. My hat is off to them ... and in the age of the internet, their task is made more difficult because the general public has much of the same information they do. (But that could easily be another topic!)

Thank you all for your contributions to the forum!
 
One of the biggest arguments against a significant event is as has been talked about is warm sector contamination. Strong negative tilt trough, good upper level divergence, and pretty good cap right off the ground and lack of a decent EML will likely lead to lots of prefrontal elevated convection/rain.
 
I guess everybodies waiting for the 00z model runs to come out before posting lol. Looked at reed timmers facebook post about the setup and he was making comments like he thinks this will be a prolific tornado outbreak across alabama and mississippi ?. Way too early to say anything like that.
 
Zander98al said:
I guess everybodies waiting for the 00z model runs to come out before posting lol. Looked at reed timmers facebook post about the setup and he was making comments like he thinks this will be a prolific tornado outbreak across alabama and mississippi . Way too early to say anything like that.
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Reed is the JB of severe weather.


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NAM showed some clouds/showers in the morning, which would definitely limit things, but still showed solid cape ahead of the convection on the morning (profiles were extremely saturated tho) bout time the meso models come in, that will definitely help out
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
NAM showed some clouds/showers in the morning, which would definitely limit things, but still showed solid cape ahead of the convection on the morning (profiles were extremely saturated tho) bout time the meso models come in, that will definitely help out
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Both GFS and NAM show a slightly stronger EML than the Euro and less prefrontal convection, yet on the flip side are both much stronger with the cap. Either way with those wind fields and meager lapse rates, most updrafts ahead of the line will be torn apart.
 
This is mostly a dud East of the mtns. Too wet and upslope kicks in 0z Saturday. Western NC May flood while places like Myrtle Beach SC sees next to nothing.
 
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