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Severe Poss severe threat late this week

Arcc said:
In my experience, in these types of strong negative tilt troughs, right off the gulf is normally where you do end up seeing the highest threat especially tornado wise.
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Yeah, seen those setups where sups come out the gulf and take advantage of Rich low level moisture and stay more discrete
 
When will hrrr be available for Fridays threat
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah, seen those setups where sups come out the gulf and take advantage of Rich low level moisture and stay more discrete
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Just saw a long range NAM 3km that Spann posted and it’s pretty interesting. It wants to actually give the medal for tornado potential to south AL, probably more SE AL and it’s possible.

As the upper level system pulls out, the flow will broaden out and shift H5 winds more westward. That could allow the line to break apart and with the higher instability would allow an elevated tornado threat.

Now we know that the 3km NAM likes to over do discrete convection in the long range, but it’s a thought.
 
Just watched the update from BMX and Kevin Laws. Basically, they are tossing numerical guidance on the quality of the warm sector even at this point. That is the make or break with this system and we most likely wont have a handle on it until 12 hours out. Will be watching to the west tomorrow to see how the models verify.
 
Arcc said:
Just saw a long range NAM 3km that Spann posted and it’s pretty interesting. It wants to actually give the medal for tornado potential to south AL, probably more SE AL and it’s possible.

As the upper level system pulls out, the flow will broaden out and shift H5 winds more westward. That could allow the line to break apart and with the higher instability would allow an elevated tornado threat.

Now we know that the 3km NAM likes to over do discrete convection in the long range, but it’s a thought.
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SE Alabama is no stranger to Winter Tornadoes
 
Really see nothing to change my thoughts tonight. Of the CAMs, the 0z 3km NAM has the weakest event and the WRF-ARW with the strongest with some nice velocity streaks over South Central MS. None of the models tonight fire discrete supercell ahead of the line, because of pretty strong capping.
 
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Can see what the SPC is saying about those areas of supercells that form ahead of the line, hrrr shows this, during the dark.. 4820D4F2-761F-4991-8FCA-8611F318FE9E.jpegthis nocturnal severe threat is no joke, 5.5 -6 C low level LR at 06z during January is pretty impressive itself, you can’t get much better than that during the the coldest time of the year, and solid low level instability along with that, not to mention those insane storm motion (bunkers right at 56kts !!) and man that’s some intense low level shear 5577AA9F-4F70-4E7F-ABED-04FD5DB77A8B.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
Yikes! Wish we had some posters in that area.
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I live in longview tx (bit NE of Tyler). Still kinda new and trying to grasp some of this stuff, but enjoy reading the discussion :). I can tell you some local schools are releasing early in anticipation of storms. people here taking things pretty seriously.
 
Well most recent HRRR/RAP models vs NAM it seems on intensity for parts of East Alabama and GA
 
First tornado warning of the day out now in Oklahoma it's starting now
 
Hodographs today are interesting around Dallas, even with very moist BLs/low levels, hodographs today support LP supercells due to strong storm relative flow E4D5019C-DC3B-40D3-A625-C3AC3391A3F5.png
 
You can see attempts of towering cumulus already on the radar being capped off at the moment by the EML, right above that cap is 8-8.5C 700mb-500mb LRs, a busy day is about to really beginB955499C-142A-49EA-A741-48484823519E.pngedit* I just saw reed tweeted out something similar, lol
 
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I would have thought that the early morning environment in and around Memphis would be more stable but after seeing the moderate risk extending into the area I'm not so certain anymore. :oops:
 
Hrrr has several supercells out ahead of the line during the middle of the night in LA/AR
 
Any chance that south alabama gets a moderate risk tommorow? Future radar on the HRRR shows possibility of supercells ahead of the line and instability is pretty good in south alabamaScreenshot_20200110-151804_Samsung Internet.jpg
 

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This is from the nws of bham discussion. That came out just a little bit ago. Screenshot_20200110-155224_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20200110-155205_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
If correct and models are underestimating like the nws of bham says the liklihood of more tornadoes and strong torndoes will be possible. Lapse rates will probably limit things a bit though i imagine
 
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