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Severe Poss severe threat late this week
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
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Zander98al
Guest
Hrrr still showing cells ahead of the line really curious to wether a moderate will be issued for south alabama
ANYTIME STARTING AROUND 10AM ON THE WEST STATE LINE LOOKING MORE LIKE 12 NOON CST
HRRR soundings for Huntsville at 2000z tomorrow show PDS tornado risk with a DP of 65 and an STP over 3.
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Zander98al
Guest
Look at the STP tommorow in west alabama 
Showmeyourtds
Member
Damn...Ominous maps. I have tickets to the Auburn/ UGA basketball game tomorrow. From there, we were gonna head to Birmingham to visit family, but at this point, we might have to do one or the other. More concerned about the intense gradient winds blowing out ahead of all this crap.
VegasEagle
Member
How many tickets?
Showmeyourtds
Member
Not sure, but a friend from my college days promised 2 to Mrs. ShowMeYourTds & I. He lives in Columbus and the other folks that he normally goes with are out of town, so he suggested that we come down from Atlanta & use a few of his seats. Hopefully we can still make it.
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Zander98al
Guest
01z hrrr stp tommorow
Yikes.
Be careful with the STP maps, they are convection contaminated.
RollTide18
Member
Yes, not saying there won't be tornadoes or maybe strong tornadoes tomorrow but plenty of times the STP has been off the charts on those maps but it turned out to be over done.
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Zander98al
Guest
Ive heard that before, isnt EHI a better composite too look at when looking at tornado potential?
Yep, although sometimes you can find STP on some sites or runs that isnt contaminated. I don't know why that isn't issue isn't fixed on the HRRR.
Interesting enough, the HRRR is by far showing the most instability, although it still is plagued by low lapse rates and low 3km Cape except in southern AL. However it adds another kink to the forecast problem, unidirectional winds from 900mb to 500mb which really hurts directional shear. Still has plenty of helicity for some tornadoes though due to the increase in wind speed with height. UH wise it's pretty much with the other CAMs showing spin ups in the QLCS.
THIS IS FOR MY BACK YARD
Thanks, a quick look at the RAP and HRW and NAM showed significantly less STP. Still looks good for severe weather, just not buck-wild.
IF IM SEEING THIS CORRECTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LINE IS MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE VS A QLCS
I'll say this the HRRR and RAP are showing very solid STP all way thru AL into west GA. Now the HRW has STP hovering around 2s even in North of I-20 in GA and NAM and HRW have been moving toward the HRRR and RAP playing catch-up.
PS. HRRR maybe a little over amped but for this time of year anything that gets above a 2.0 on STP I'm impressed
PS. HRRR maybe a little over amped but for this time of year anything that gets above a 2.0 on STP I'm impressed
RAP IS STILL SHOWING VERY IMPRESSIVE STP
ALSO HWR SHOWING IMPRESSIVE UPDRAFTS AND SRH VALUES
ALSO HWR SHOWING IMPRESSIVE UPDRAFTS AND SRH VALUES
Actually I think the line is just weaker, really getting thin with breaks in the line as it passes I65 in BHM. Doesn't really make sense yet. Raining into each storms updraft from the unidirectional wind flow?
Yeah, critical angles under 45 to which is pretty unimpressive for this event, also like you said lots of unidirectional flow, and Flow between 2km-8km is nearly parallel to the boundary, so that keeps things more linear, but these soundings out of south AL do grab your attention with 3CAPE and decent low level LRsInteresting enough, the HRRR is by far showing the most instability, although it still is plagued by low lapse rates and low 3km Cape except in southern AL. However it adds another kink to the forecast problem, unidirectional winds from 900mb to 500mb which really hurts directional shear. Still has plenty of helicity for some tornadoes though due to the increase in wind speed with height. UH wise it's pretty much with the other CAMs showing spin ups in the QLCS.
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Zander98al
Guest
Who else is waking up bright and early to see how the weather is coming into mississippi then alabama?
IM AT WORK AT 9-1-1 UNTIL 0630 SO ILL BE WIDE AWAKE
ME
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Zander98al
Guest
Crazy that the dewpoint could hit the 70s in january ?. A ripe atmosphere. 
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Zander98al
Guest
As well as the dewpoints each new HRRR run raises instability with values near 2500 in south alabama
It really is. Those sounding are very impressive. What is even more impressive is that the HRRR does nothing with it. The line is looking more broken and weaker with each run. I don't know if the HRRR is broken or something. Haha.
Edit: Then again the next frame looks impressive. Who knows.
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THIS ONE SEEMS IMPRESSIVE TO ME AND STILL AT CRITICAL ANGLE OF 40
Well as far as Updraft Helicity go, round one goes to the 3km NAM and the WRF-NMMB. The HRRR and ARW have been way too hot across AR/TX/LA.
Definitely isn't a bust. That squall should give a pretty good punch.
SPC outlook is spot on IMO.
MIGHT BE A BUST FOR YOUR LOCATION BUT IF JUST ONE PERSON EXPERIENCES A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT THEN ITS NOT A BUST. ILL NEVER CALL A BUST UNTIL THE EVENT IS COMPLETELY OVER.
I'm just saying they went too heavy on the enhanced risk with hatched area and severe probabilities to start with only to major downgrade now wayy before the storms but I guess things change fast
Yeah major downgrades when we were waiting on the outlook patiently everyone is shocked