Parker
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Severe Poss severe threat late this week
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Actually I think the line is just weaker, really getting thin with breaks in the line as it passes I65 in BHM. Doesn't really make sense yet. Raining into each storms updraft from the unidirectional wind flow?
Yeah, critical angles under 45 to which is pretty unimpressive for this event, also like you said lots of unidirectional flow, and Flow between 2km-8km is nearly parallel to the boundary, so that keeps things more linear, but these soundings out of south AL do grab your attention with 3CAPE and decent low level LRsInteresting enough, the HRRR is by far showing the most instability, although it still is plagued by low lapse rates and low 3km Cape except in southern AL. However it adds another kink to the forecast problem, unidirectional winds from 900mb to 500mb which really hurts directional shear. Still has plenty of helicity for some tornadoes though due to the increase in wind speed with height. UH wise it's pretty much with the other CAMs showing spin ups in the QLCS.
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Zander98al
Guest
Who else is waking up bright and early to see how the weather is coming into mississippi then alabama?
IM AT WORK AT 9-1-1 UNTIL 0630 SO ILL BE WIDE AWAKE
ME
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Zander98al
Guest
Crazy that the dewpoint could hit the 70s in january ?. A ripe atmosphere. 
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Zander98al
Guest
As well as the dewpoints each new HRRR run raises instability with values near 2500 in south alabama
It really is. Those sounding are very impressive. What is even more impressive is that the HRRR does nothing with it. The line is looking more broken and weaker with each run. I don't know if the HRRR is broken or something. Haha.
Edit: Then again the next frame looks impressive. Who knows.
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THIS ONE SEEMS IMPRESSIVE TO ME AND STILL AT CRITICAL ANGLE OF 40
Well as far as Updraft Helicity go, round one goes to the 3km NAM and the WRF-NMMB. The HRRR and ARW have been way too hot across AR/TX/LA.
Definitely isn't a bust. That squall should give a pretty good punch.
SPC outlook is spot on IMO.
MIGHT BE A BUST FOR YOUR LOCATION BUT IF JUST ONE PERSON EXPERIENCES A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT THEN ITS NOT A BUST. ILL NEVER CALL A BUST UNTIL THE EVENT IS COMPLETELY OVER.
I'm just saying they went too heavy on the enhanced risk with hatched area and severe probabilities to start with only to major downgrade now wayy before the storms but I guess things change fast
Yeah major downgrades when we were waiting on the outlook patiently everyone is shocked