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Severe Poss severe threat late this week

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12z 3km NAM just collapses the line before BHM and is pretty much is a none event for all of AL except for NW AL and a pocket or two.

The 12z WRF-ARW shows the line staying pretty stout but has completely given up on any significant convection ahead of the QLCS.

So far the 3km NAM is nailing the ragged appearance of the line.
 
I'm going to stick with the HRRR in my opinion it's best for the hours before the storm , again this is my personal opinion

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Arcc said:
12z 3km NAM just collapses the line before BHM and is pretty much is a none event for all of AL except for NW AL and a pocket or two.

The 12z WRF-ARW shows the line staying pretty stout but has completely given up on any significant convection ahead of the QLCS.

So far the 3km NAM is nailing the ragged appearance of the line.
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Models have a had time in the disapation phase before redevelopment. Lot of math.
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
I'm going to stick with the HRRR in my opinion it's best for the hours before the storm , again this is my personal opinion

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I would take a blend of the WRFs, ARW and NMMB. The ARW is always too hot and the NMMB is negative Nancy. In between in a good way to go IMO.
 
Unless this changes drastically, the chance of a statewide significant event is low. This is current Low level lapse rates.
 

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Dry line clearly visible on latest satilite data. As this moves east you can give a sigh of relief. For those in Alabama. It does not look good.

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Hrrr suggests some rouge rotating storm may possibly form in south alabama ahead of the line Screenshot_20200111-100009_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20200111-100019_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Slowly but surely this supercell in south alabama is slowly organzing itself some, still broad rotation though. A storm southwest of it is trying to organize as wellScreenshot_20200111-102305_RadarScope.jpgScreenshot_20200111-102258_RadarScope.jpg
 
Tornado warning on state line. Spann also has his suspenders on so its time to get a little worried ?20200111_105743.jpg9Screenshot_20200111-105639_RadarScope.jpg
 
Starting to get concerned for Georgia, South and North Carolina.. Should remain south of Maryland. "Famous last words."
 
Here is why you cannot just equate higher surface temps to more severe weather. The models have slowly adjusted higher surface temps with the stronger WAA, but the flip side is it has also advected warmer air at 925mb and 850mb, effectively hurting both low level lapse rates and 3km Cape. So far low level lapse rates have been very well forecasted by the NAM, 3km NAM and Euro. Add in high shear and linear forcing and you have what we have right now.
 

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TDS. PICKENS CO ALABAMA


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Arcc said:
Here is why you cannot just equate higher surface temps to more severe weather. The models have slowly adjusted higher surface temps with the stronger WAA, but the flip side is it has also advected warmer air at 925mb and 850mb, effectively hurting both low level lapse rates and 3km Cape. So far low level lapse rates have been very well forecasted by the NAM, 3km NAM and Euro. Add in high shear and linear forcing and you have what we have right now.
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Max heating is what it is. Can it be residual? You bet ya. That's why I'm concerned.
 
Change to abc 3340 the circulation going to pass over or right by there reform alabama camera
 
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