John1122
Member
The most common occurrence in these situations is that the North American models soon cave to the Euro, which then two runs later drops the threat.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
The most common occurrence in these situations is that the North American models soon cave to the Euro, which then two runs later drops the threat.
Parker
Member
I sure would like to see better ensemble support today.
I mean really just any ensemble support would be nice. EPS last night had 3 members with any snow for my area and GEFS was completely blanked. Not great.
I mean really just any ensemble support would be nice. EPS last night had 3 members with any snow for my area and GEFS was completely blanked. Not great.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well, looks like the -NAO wants to save us after all. I thought last week it would probably dissipate & hence I was getting pretty keen on a warm-up by the Winter Solstice, but I did mention if we get managed to get a strong -NAO, we might be able to thwart it at least thru Christmas. Good to see it's fighting back in a big way inside day 7-10 on most guidance.
AJ1013
Member
Disappointing forecast bust here. Only made it down to 48F imby, 50F at the airport. Wind was probably the culprit.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Using data from this forum, social media, CoCoRaHS, mPING, SERCC's NWS NOWData, & other personal communication, I made a map of the flizzard event we had earlier this week in north-central NC & have stored it on my website:
http://www.webberweather.com/2020s-winter-storms-nc.html
http://www.webberweather.com/2020s-winter-storms-nc.html
I’m also noticing that the AO is wanting to stay negative as well which is big difference from the last couple years. Is this something that will help keep warm ups in check?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's a favorable indicator in a hemispheric-scale sense that cold air is being distributed fairly generously into the mid-latitudes, it doesn't say anything specifically about N America however. The NAO & EPO help describe the pattern here over N America. As @Myfrotho704_ & myself alluded to last week, if we can get the Alaskan vortex to retrograde towards the Aleutians/Bering Sea we open up the door for a +PNA to develop and coupled w/ the -NAO, it opens up the door for significant bouts of cold air to get discharged into the east-central CONUS and also provides a relatively stormy pattern for the US east coast.
I got stuck at 26. Still though I can't complain about the last couple of weeks, some warm, some cold
I will say that even though we got the 00z Euro on board, the 06z run looks arguably much worse, but it's not done yet, the ICON looks worse too. There's still a lot of room for shifting, with little support from its ensembles, the GFS and CMC. I wouldn't get my hopes up, since this pattern is really threading the needle.
In Huntsville, we've already had as many lows below freezing this December as we had all of December 2019.
SnowNiner
Member
Wouldn't be poetic if we finally get our long coveted season long -NAO.....but only to block the AK vortex warm pacific flow? It looks like the AK low wants to move a touch west, but not really doing it overnight. We're sooo close here. My hope is come January it'll find it's way west.
I'm not the biggest fan of the setup but I'm not going to tell myself that
You might could change that for all winter. Last year was touch here.
The last four runs don’t look too promising for anybody. The eastern Canadian ridge has been retreating in every run allowing our system to continue to cut further north sooner.
On the upside the god awful AK is looking better and our NAO looks better on the long run. Webber is on to something around late next week and possible Christmas week in the se. If we gradually see improvements over the LR the next couple of days.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
On the upside the god awful AK is looking better and our NAO looks better on the long run. Webber is on to something around late next week and possible Christmas week in the se. If we gradually see improvements over the LR the next couple of days.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Unlike so many -NAO/+EPO regimes we've seen in the past, the one that's coming around the corner could have much easier access to true Arctic air thanks to this week's -WPO that'll deposit air from NE Siberia (the coldest place in the entire N hem) straight into Alaska & NW Canada. I'm legitimately going to be interested in what this pattern holds thru Christmas if the -NAO doesn't dissipate.
