• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Ostrich December

Myfrotho704_ said:
Can we trend this the right direction more or do we suck at that View attachment 58357
Click to expand...
Problem I saw last night is that +PNA sliding East from this point going forward. I don’t love the WAR but it doesn’t necessarily hurt us if it stays where it’s at. What do you see? Can we get that trough to dig in long enough to let a southern stream wave make a pass?
 
If we can slow that wave entering the Pacific Northwest down to keep our +PNA in place a touch longer then we might have a chance?
 
Ollie Williams said:
I know I said that a phasing Baja wave wasn’t likely, but now I take back that it’s impossible. I think that we could get a phase with better trends, but this is another, I’ll see it when I believe it situation.
Click to expand...

I agree, I'd like to see a second piece of energy in the N/S dive behind this Christmas anafrontal miracle, because chances are that big trough the GFS keeps showing will move out, or if the Baja energy caught up and interacted w/ it we'd be too warm. Instead it'd be nice to see that trough position itself more as a 50/50 low for a storm on the 27/28th. GFS did this on yesterday's 18z, but it's not shown up since and I'm not confident it will again.
 
Webberweather53 said:
If we can get the Baja wave to move over into the red circled area about 500-600 miles to the east, we'll have a classic southern slider/overunning event on our hands because it's plenty cold enough to snow at least to the I-20 corridor w/ this deep longwave trough centered near the Lakes

View attachment 58359
Click to expand...
Are we moving in that direction
 
Webberweather53 said:
If we can get the Baja wave to move over into the red circled area about 500-600 miles to the east, we'll have a classic southern slider/overunning event on our hands because it's plenty cold enough to snow at least to the I-20 corridor w/ this deep longwave trough centered near the Lakes

View attachment 58359
Click to expand...
Plenty of time to do so still, my expectations are very low but it’s still very possible
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Plenty of time to do so still, my expectations are very low but it’s still very possible
Click to expand...

Clem282340 said:
Are we moving in that direction
Click to expand...

We're getting closer. These southwestern US/northern Mexico cut off upper lows are so fickle though, they can easily trend 500 miles+ inside day 3-4 in or against our favor. I'd like to see the wave come a little more east and north so it's more deeply embedded in the westerly flow (moves faster east if it's further north) & is further east so timing wise it comes out and starts throwing moisture into this arctic air mass before it leaves

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh180_trend.gif
 
wxdaniel said:
This is how we determined our state borders in South Carolina.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
We just can't buy anything but an apps cutter. You would think, just by the odds, we could eventually get a gulf coast track but we just can't. These apps cutters, especially with marginal cold, just aren't going to do it.?
 
And honestly the ingredients are there to pop a coastal off the Carolina coast if enough energy drops down out of Montana on the 26/27th. It’ll be moving fast. Ensembles showing any OBX snow around that timeframe? Hmm
 
The kind of look we'd be dealing w/ if this trended favorably is something along the lines of Jan 1992, which produced a sizable snowstorm along the I-20 corridor. Notice the cut off upper low is nearly attached to the trough and sitting over SW TX and northern Mexico.

The one thing we don't have that we had in 1991-92 was a strong El Nino. The additional westerly momentum El Nino pumps into the southern branch of the jet via central Pacific convection encourages these cut off upper lows over the southwestern US and northern Mexico to be more progressive and come out a little quicker.

1608245354186.png
 
Light snow is breaking out in the hickory nc area tonight maybe something to watch off the mtns
 
Webberweather53 said:
The kind of look we'd be dealing w/ if this trended favorably is something along the lines of Jan 1992, which produced a sizable snowstorm along the I-20 corridor. Notice the cut off upper low is nearly attached to the trough and sitting over SW TX and northern Mexico.

The one thing we don't have that we had in 1991-92 was a strong El Nino. The additional westerly momentum El Nino pumps into the southern branch of the jet via central Pacific convection encourages these cut off upper lows over the southwestern US and northern Mexico to be more progressive and come out a little quicker.

View attachment 58361
Click to expand...
I remember in December 1993, which was a La Niña I believe, we had a Southern Slider come through the south on the 22nd and 23rd. Charlotte Metro had a widespread 2-3 inches and if I remember correctly there was a shield of accumulating snow through the south basically between I-40 and I-20. I wonder what the set up was for that.
 
Chazwin said:
I remember in December 1993, which was a La Niña I believe, we had a Southern Slider come through the south on the 22nd and 23rd. Charlotte Metro had a widespread 2-3 inches and if I remember correctly there was a shield of accumulating snow through the south basically between I-40 and I-20. I wonder what the set up was for that.
Click to expand...

That's also not a horribly dissimilar look in general if we get the cut off upper low over the Baja to speed up

1608246332256.png


This is what the snowfall map looks like for NC
December 22-24 1993 NC Snowmap.png
 
GEFS looks decent and better. A lot are wraparound back end snow however.
GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_186.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's also not a horribly dissimilar look in general if we get the cut off upper low over the Baja to speed up

View attachment 58365


This is what the snowfall map looks like for NC
View attachment 58366
Click to expand...
Trying to dig back in the memory bank I do remember a pre Christmas snowstorm being on the TWC local forecast that was going to be a big deal and it kind of was meh and was melted before Christmas. I wonder if this is it
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top