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Ostrich December

gfs showing some flurries/moisture tonight too. will be something to watch.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_3.png
 
I'm surprised nobody's talking about the CMC. White Christmas for a lot of folks.
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I went to sleep after looking at the vort maps last night. Didn’t look all that bad for folks back west if it could bomb out and give cold air enough time to rush in. Didn’t hate it especially for western facing slopes in TN it’s a pretty good look honestly. Could put the same areas in play that already saw snow earlier this month.
 
Early indications are that early January may not be looking too shabby relative to normal pattern-wise. We'll see but at these scales subseasonal variability like the MJO, Kelvin Waves, & mountain + frictional torques usually help provide some first initial clues on where the pattern may be headed and what may show up on long-range guidance soon, I'm starting to hedge my bets that we'll have at least a semi-favorable pattern heading into early January.

 
The timing of the front on Monday is really a bummer. I'm not looking forward to working in the pouring rain. 5 hours walking outside in rain does not sound fun. Worth it for the $$$ but it hasn't rained in nearly 10 days, why does it have to be Monday lol.

GmCHkQM.png
 
I’ll take wind snow coming off the mtns for Christmas. Easy foothill setup there..
 
It looks like it has the cold front coming a bit later than the GFS.
CMC has snow again for parts of Mississippi and Tennessee Christmas night and the 26th . It’s light but it’s there

Also isn’t near as cold as the gfs


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Canadian looks money. If that low digs a bit more, it could get crazy.


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So far, the GFS, GEFS and Euro are not on-board. Just a typical winter frontal passage with some very cold air for a few days, then moderating to at or above normal prior to the next rain maker. I tend to believe those common solutions, for now.
 
So far, the GFS, GEFS and Euro are not on-board. Just a typical winter frontal passage with some very cold air for a few days, then moderating to at or above normal prior to the next rain maker. I tend to believe those common solutions, for now.

They’ll come around. 18z GFS will show signs of cracking.


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So far, the GFS, GEFS and Euro are not on-board. Just a typical winter frontal passage with some very cold air for a few days, then moderating to at or above normal prior to the next rain maker. I tend to believe those common solutions, for now.
GEFSSE_prec_snens_216.png

Actually, there are a few members for that time frame. This has been a singnal for a few runs now
 
GEFSSE_prec_snens_216.png

Actually, there are a few members for that time frame. This has been a singnal for a few runs now
Really not that bad of a look for an anafront pattern. I'm hoping we trend towards more wave separation because if we do, we can get an overrunning, but that's just being hopeful.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel-8984000.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-8984000.png
 
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