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Ostrich December

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RVD said:
A big shift like that in the nearer term makes me anxious... dunno that I like its downstream implications here. Result of that phase is the 957 low near Newfoundland. TPV looks weaker and further north. Helps amp the SER more. That wave out west isn't helping either.View attachment 58239
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I think it really just boils down to whether or not those two waves in the pacific phase. If they do, we get a more -PNA, and stronger LR WAR. We also get a less negative EPO because we don’t have that wave to help push it north.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Southern Christmas storm a decade ago was a Baja wave that we tracked 5-7 days out. Never wavered. Cross your fingers and clench your buttcheeks. A chance is all you can ask for.
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It had a @Rain Cold guarantee! But it was looking a lot more suppressed than it ended up being. There was a big NW shift in the last 24-48 hours that put places like Greensboro and even the foothills and mountains in the game. And overrunning overperformed.

I think the NW shift also allowed it to nail DC with 6-12”, as DC basically got feet of snow on the regular in that time period.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What did January 17-18 2018 look like at H5 ? @Ollie Williams
Pattern here isn’t far off
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I literally plotted it today, and I’ll share it tomorrow, but the H5 look wave very different. The wave was just barely holding onto the north from being cut off over AL/MS. There was a big +PNA and ridge over central Canada to the NW, and a little ridge the the NE.
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CR had the magic whammy fingers for that one. I wonder if he still has another in him? Might be too old now, lol....maybe they have some blue pills to help enhance weather prediction prowess :) He's already a legend in Ga. A twofer for Xmas day storms would hang his weather gear in the rafters. Come on, CR, this one has potential. Get a secondary system to start up with that gulf tap, lag behind so the cold air gets in first. It could happen, with some whammy fingers .
 
Ollie Williams said:
I literally plotted it today, and I’ll share it tomorrow, but the H5 look wave very different. The wave was just barely holding onto the north from being cut off over AL/MS. There was a big +PNA and ridge over central Canada to the NW, and a little ridge the the NE.
View attachment 58243
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If you could remember tag me. I would like to see it as well.


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dsaur said:
CR had the magic whammy fingers for that one. I wonder if he still has another in him? Might be too old now, lol....maybe they have some blue pills to help enhance weather prediction prowess :) He's already a legend in Ga. A twofer for Xmas day storms would hang his weather gear in the rafters. Come on, CR, this one has potential. Get a secondary system to start up with that gulf tap, lag behind so the cold air gets in first. It could happen, with some whammy fingers .
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That storm really was a Christmas miracle, maybe Santa will give us another one after all the crap we’ve endured this decade.
 
And the long-term implications of those changes for the close call on the 18z are what I suspected. Southern stream looks barely changed and western ridge improved a bit, but that nice 50/50 low (and mega high pressure) noped out. TPV didn't stick around the same way. Still far out there, subject to a lot of changes.

What the GFS spits out for this (another flizzard, with a tilt just a bit too far east) is better than I thought it would be actually. Just not as promising of a setup as last run was showing.
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RVD said:
Lol is that lake effect?
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Not just saying it because that finger of precip looks vaguely right on the 6hrly map... the setup actually makes sense for it, and I know it's possible to get a little bit off of Kerr lake. Winds are likely strengthening with that developing low, and oriented in roughly the right direction (keep in mind the precip is a 6-hr average that isobars shown are at the end of). And it's a big cold push, especially at 850 mb (the important height for lake effect) while Kerr lake would still be pretty warm. Just with such a small lake/fetch, it seems absurd to get such a long band.

The sounding at 288 shows it better actually- look at those northerly winds and lift concentrated in the lower levels- that's definitely a lake effect signal. The cloud isn't reaching the DGZ here, but I suspect it does between this frame and the next (by which point 850s have cooled more but the column has desaturated). Looks like a similar profile extends all the way down to around Johnston County.

Anyway, just nerding out over a pretty neat phenomenon to see the model spit out. It'd take some pretty exact conditions to produce such a notable event here.lake_effect.png
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Storm5 said:
FWIW and it’s not much given it’s the CMC . But the 00z CMC will have some light snow Christmas Day for parts of Tennessee and maybe northern Mississippi


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It ended up being a dang megastorm, especially for the western 2/3rds of Tennessee but it got North Miss, North Alabama and North Ga too. Unfortunately I wouldn't even believe it if it were the Euro 72 hours out.
 
O Wunderground my beloved Wunderground.. it's been a decade since the last white christmas:

Thursday Night 12/24
39% / 1.2 in
Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers in the evening. A few snow showers late. Low 29F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 40%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.
 
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