• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Ostrich December

iGRXY said:
And I’ve seen these models consistently under perform CAD here all my life. I’ve seen them try to drive LP directly into CAD and that just isn’t going to happen. It never does. CAD always over performs, always gets colder the closer you get to show time, and for the globals to be that close to freezing already tells me an ice storm is looking more and more likely. On top of that you only get those ridiculous ice totals from models showing every bit of liquid being freezing rain. No matter if it’s falling very heavy. That’s not the setup here. You’re dealing with lighter precip that lasts over a longer period of time, if it’s as modeled. Now I’m not saying an inch of ice but .25-.5 certainly couldn’t be ruled out.
Click to expand...
Again, the high is receding, with a weak cold air mass. Even if you are right and temps are able to make it below freezing to the update, I’ll say 30-32 degrees because 20s just aren’t realistic. You’d have light precip (as you said), that about half doesn’t freeze because of how marginal temps are. Plus Globals have it in 6-12 hour increments, but in reality, with a receding high 1-2 is more likely.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Again, the high is receding, with a weak cold air mass. Even if you are right and temps are able to make it below freezing to the update, I’ll say 30-32 degrees because 20s just aren’t realistic. You’d have light precip (as you said), that about half doesn’t freeze because of how marginal temps are. Plus Globals have it in 6-12 hour increments, but in reality, with a receding high 1-2 is more likely.
Click to expand...
Again, we can go back and forth on this all night. I’ve seen globals slide highs out too fast and erode CAD way too fast. Until I see the day that it actually happens, I’m in a wait and see. Also the high isn’t receding that fast either.
 
I do think the GFS is to warm this run. With that scenario it will be a touch colder.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
So the GFS went from ZR being on the VA/NC border the last run, I believe, to now it being all the way down to the NC/SC border. Expected.
 
Pretty big improvement for the gfs. Although not quite there for Sc or Ga. At least its picking up on what the other models are seeing. That is a bonus this far out. A long way to go and a slight shift southeast with the high and and a slight shift in timing can be huge here. We def got one to track!
 
Ollie Williams said:
I would dial it back. Ignore the Icon warm bias, because most other models agree with it just barely being into freezing north of I-85. Not a real good push of cold air to get an ice storm IMO. I’ve been burned so many times being around 32-33 degrees while the CMC says I get .50 inches of ice. If anybody gets anything outside of maybe a light coating, it’ll be maybe Winston-Salem northwestward. There’s the potential CAD trend, but don’t count on that happening, because it’s easy to get too excited. I have an extremely hard time seeing up in the upper 20’s, it’s just not that strong of climo setup. I could be wrong though.
Click to expand...
Definitely need a continuous low level cold feed or freezing rain is a self-limiting process due to latent heat.
 
I don’t want folks to think I’m arguing with them or anything but I’ve lived in prime CAD my whole life and have seen this script a thousand times. Globals too warm at the surface, globals trying to drive LP into the CAD, globals eroding CAD too quickly. Happens everytime. Until it finally decides to show me different, I can’t think this time will be any different.
 
Lets see what CrazyManCanadian has to say. Wouldn't surprise me to see a doozy run here or tomorrow extending into ne ga.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I could see that being more sleet, especially on the onset View attachment 57142
Click to expand...
I could be mistaken and making things up, but it seems like over the last decade, we’ve gotten more sleet as opposed to freezing rain than expected in a lot of these situations. In my time in the Triad (up until 2016), we really hadn’t had any bad ice storms since December 2002 with the exception of March 2014, and even March 2014 had a significant amount of mixing with sleet. Over the same timespan, we had like 10 pingermaggedons (slight exaggeration, but not too much haha).
 
iGRXY said:
That 2nd wave is our storm and is very much in play her. We have a wave showing up and CAD showing up. That’s all you can ask.
Click to expand...
EmersonGA said:
I wasn’t paying attention but when I just let the dog out I noticed my deck was white. I guess I can put a big T down for 11/30.
Click to expand...
iGRXY said:
I don’t want folks to think I’m arguing with them or anything but I’ve lived in prime CAD my whole life and have seen this script a thousand times. Globals too warm at the surface, globals trying to drive LP into the CAD, globals eroding CAD too quickly. Happens everytime. Until it finally decides to show me different, I can’t think this time will be any different.
Click to expand...
My biggest concern is the location of the High at the onset. Would like to see it 200 miles SE
 
GEFS ought to be interesting

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
 
superjames1992 said:
I could be mistaken and making things up, but it seems like over the last decade, we’ve gotten more sleet as opposed to freezing rain than expected in a lot of these situations. In my time in the Triad (up until 2016), we really hadn’t had any bad ice storms since December 2002 with the exception of March 2014, and even March 2014 had a significant amount of mixing with sleet. Over the same timespan, we had like 10 pingermaggedons (slight exaggeration, but not too much haha).
Click to expand...
You’re right, ZR is almost always over modeled with these Ptype changeover gradients. I also find it very suspect that models have a pretty sharp cutoff between ZR and snow, which almost never verifies that way.
 
42edb711368fb0f48047b1f046565e0a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top