Which must imply good snow around that boundary in NC
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
if only the CMC didn't have a notorious cold bias.. even gives tennessee some hope for a little snow/ice.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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??
SimeonNC
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BufordWX
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Even the warmer euro is super close call with a big icing event, I’m honestly at this point eager to see what the NAMs shows since it’s better with thermals 
Low track is so nice, just needs more Arctic air. sad.
Euro looks like a slightly stronger and western version of the GFS. WV, NW VA and PA get smoked, low just parks off of Jersey before exiting stage right. Verbatim it’s close for the triad, most everyone else is out of luck.
SimeonNC
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The warmest temps get on the Euro for the event is ~40 from Union county to ~33/34 Greensboro, Winston Salem, Hickory, and so on.
The western NC Piedmont may have a decent shot at some onset ice in this setup. If you live east of I-85 in the Carolinas, this is most likely a non-event.
I wonder what happens if we see another tick towards stronger CAD
That's what I am interested to see, if that occurs, the chance of onset ice farther east along the I-85 corridor increases. Not quite the same situation, but I remember a March 2014 system caught the Alamance/Orange/Durham counties off guard with significant icing
SimeonNC
Member
The EPS is gonna have some interesting members.
Ugly Map but here’s what I’m thinking right now per models (this will change !) number 3 is the area that stands the best shot at seeing snow/sleet/ZR
Number 2 is for areas that have a better shot at ZR/IP and staying with frozen precip longer
Number 1 is for areas that for right now, could see some brief onset sleet followed by some freezing rain to rain
It’s very early but these are just some early thoughts, this thing is still 4-5 days away, so there will likely be some hefty shifts, this could get warmer and go to mainly VA, or this could get colder and become more widespread, just depends
Number 2 is for areas that have a better shot at ZR/IP and staying with frozen precip longer
Number 1 is for areas that for right now, could see some brief onset sleet followed by some freezing rain to rain
It’s very early but these are just some early thoughts, this thing is still 4-5 days away, so there will likely be some hefty shifts, this could get warmer and go to mainly VA, or this could get colder and become more widespread, just depends
SimeonNC
Member
Stealing this from the MA forum but someone did point out that the Euro tends to be over amped sometimes.
Brent
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Always so far out
SimeonNC
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Also question, would the snow north of us from the first storm be enough to influence the CAD? That could play a huge role
After taking off for 12 days over Thanksgiving no way I can make a quick trip north mid-week, timing sucks. Certainly upside potential as all key ingredients for a mid latitude cyclone with large comma head are shaping up for interior sections up there.
Clem282340
Member
How about the individual members
People already calling this event when we’re not even in NAM range and we know how much CAD fluctuates in the days leading up to an event and often go way colder ??????
BufordWX
Member
Looks like someone on here is gonna be winning tonight!
We can adjust this ?
Very close to cross polar flow there... Yeah, I think we see some pretty mid-level magnitude arctic air in the Deep South in January.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Just crazy radar!
Trending towards another miller B/CAD pattern here right after the one we’re looking at 
NAM is about to drop the bomb on NC at long range later this weekend
I’ve been through many ice events. Even 30 is fairly warm for much other than a glaze on trees. Need 20s. Still time to do it. Would rather have snow tho.
BufordWX
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06z GFS should be better again. CAD once again looks stronger.
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BufordWX
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L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
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An absolute massive ice storm on the 06z gfs.
Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
SimeonNC
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And the 6z GFS has my front end sleet idea for the NW piedmont lol
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
6Z GFS and 6Z ICON... both are colder and wintry and the footprint of the wintry extended. Also, one trend im noticing too is that the CAD is holding longer each run.
Icon had a stronger CAD this run also shifting the 1037 high farther south.
buckle up, is gonna be a wild & fun weekend of model watching.
This could even trend better for the midlands of SC.STILL 2-3 days to trend colder.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
One thing you can definitely notice on the top animation is how snug those isobars are getting. Good sign of an entrenched high to the north.