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Ostrich December

BufordWX said:
You can definitely see that La Niña pattern in place on the GFS with the general storm track being well to the north of here. View attachment 55997View attachment 55998View attachment 55999
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Honestly we need this to happen so snow cover can get back to where it’s suppose to be north of here .. it will help with our periods of colder temperatures when we have them ..come our better climo months .. we need that for less airmass modification IMO
 
Here comes the cold! I wonder if my heater works lol
rChf3Xh.png
 
On a more serious note, here are the La Ninas since 1950 that featured a strong-very strong +EPO in December and a negative or weakly positive NAO. While I was being a bit facetious earlier wrt 2011-12, that winter is actually not a good match in the Atlantic-Euro sector because the NAO was extremely positive in Dec and that just isn't gonna happen this year.



1607307289942.png

1607307242055.png


Those 5 winters (1954-55, 1959-60, 1970-71, 1999-00, 2007-08) shown in the above 500mb composite are truly all over the place cold/snow wise, you have arguably 3 great-blockbuster winters in central NC (1954-55, 1959-60, & 1999-00), 1970-71 pretty average, 2007-08 fairly meh-boring. Rolling them forward into January it's a very intriguing pattern and one that suggests transient shots of both cold & warmth as the -PNA competes w/ the -NAO.


1607307533675.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
On a more serious note, here are the La Ninas since 1950 that featured a strong-very strong +EPO in December and a negative or weakly positive NAO. While I was being a bit facetious earlier wrt 2011-12, that winter is actually not a good match in the Atlantic-Euro sector because the NAO was extremely positive in Dec and that just isn't gonna happen this year.



View attachment 56013

View attachment 56012


Those 5 winters (1954-55, 1959-60, 1970-71, 1999-00, 2007-08) shown in the above 500mb composite are truly all over the place cold/snow wise, you have arguably 3 great-blockbuster winters in central NC (1954-55, 1959-60, & 1999-00), 1970-71 pretty average, 2007-08 fairly meh-boring. Rolling them forward into January it's a very intriguing pattern and one that suggests transient shots of both cold & warmth as the -PNA competes w/ the -NAO.


View attachment 56014
Click to expand...

Even those 3 aforementioned excellent-blockbuster winters were pretty all over the place in their evolution. 1954-55 had a respectable low end accumulating event in Dec 1954 then came out w/ a big storm in mid January and a few other minor events in late month to follow it up. 1999-00 was garbage until January then went gangbusters in mid-late month only to back off again late in the winter. 1959-60 is one of the snowiest winters on record in the last 125 years in NC and is a quintessential example of a March Miracle, producing basically no snow in central NC until the middle of February, then absolutely going off in March. Moral of the story is, it's kind of anyone's guess what happens beyond late December, but certainly looks like we're moving towards a milder pattern by the Winter Solstice or so as I initially expected.
 
Webberweather53 said:
On a more serious note, here are the La Ninas since 1950 that featured a strong-very strong +EPO in December and a negative or weakly positive NAO. While I was being a bit facetious earlier wrt 2011-12, that winter is actually not a good match in the Atlantic-Euro sector because the NAO was extremely positive in Dec and that just isn't gonna happen this year.



View attachment 56013

View attachment 56012


Those 5 winters (1954-55, 1959-60, 1970-71, 1999-00, 2007-08) shown in the above 500mb composite are truly all over the place cold/snow wise, you have arguably 3 great-blockbuster winters in central NC (1954-55, 1959-60, & 1999-00), 1970-71 pretty average, 2007-08 fairly meh-boring. Rolling them forward into January it's a very intriguing pattern and one that suggests transient shots of both cold & warmth as the -PNA competes w/ the -NAO.


View attachment 56014
Click to expand...
I definitely can see how those winters ended up being blockbusters with that ridging over the Great lakes, with a neutral/slightly negative signal out in SE Canada. That highly favors a CAD/Miller B look. We'll see when all the model dispersion clears out, but I would argue that modeling looks much different than your analogs with the SE Canada Ridge. If I get time, I aught to use the ERA-5 to make a daily composite to compare it with your monthly research.
 
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ghost1 said:
Where's the cold weather in NA? The highs in Edmonton Alberta have been in the mid 40's and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s this past week. Average high for early Dec is mid 20's and lows around 10. I keep looking for a cold source to the NW and can't find one
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I would gladly answer that, but I can't find the Global warming thread.
 
ghost1 said:
Where's the cold weather in NA? The highs in Edmonton Alberta have been in the mid 40's and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s this past week. Average high for early Dec is mid 20's and lows around 10. I keep looking for a cold source to the NW and can't find one
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The cold is in Florida muahahahaha
 
accu35 said:
I'm enjoying this nice cold air out right now. Even if it doesn't snow or ice now, the fresh nice December cold is amazing.
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Yep, exactly how I remember my Decembers in my elementary school days, I'm going to enjoy this before the SER flexes it's muscle later on.

Edit: Apparently the weather here in Alabama is the same everywhere in North America.
 
ghost1 said:
Where's the cold weather in NA? The highs in Edmonton Alberta have been in the mid 40's and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s this past week. Average high for early Dec is mid 20's and lows around 10. I keep looking for a cold source to the NW and can't find one
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Well the Arctic sea ice is way behind this year, so there is plenty of energy left for the water to dump into the atmosphere and keep the northern hemisphere warm.
 
Interesting, that cutter next week is trying to access a piece of cold from the TPV 93A6EA2D-4CB2-45AF-B8B8-4C4F37FC935F.gif187395DC-FC31-4A5B-BBBE-48546E0061E5.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even those 3 aforementioned excellent-blockbuster winters were pretty all over the place in their evolution. 1954-55 had a respectable low end accumulating event in Dec 1954 then came out w/ a big storm in mid January and a few other minor events in late month to follow it up. 1999-00 was garbage until January then went gangbusters in mid-late month only to back off again late in the winter. 1959-60 is one of the snowiest winters on record in the last 125 years in NC and is a quintessential example of a March Miracle, producing basically no snow in central NC until the middle of February, then absolutely going off in March. Moral of the story is, it's kind of anyone's guess what happens beyond late December, but certainly looks like we're moving towards a milder pattern by the Winter Solstice or so as I initially expected.
Click to expand...

I have a question: I've used the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis tools some, but not a lot. Is it possible to make diagrams that show variance/standard deviation of these years too, and not just average anomalies? It would be a good way to visualize where these analogs disagree, not just where they agree. It might also help paint a picture of whether we risk depature from these analogs, e.g. if our December pattern looks different from the average in a place with low variance that implies that it may evolve differently down the road.
 
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