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Ostrich December

Only reason why I’m uneasy about the 18z trends, is that our piece of energy that will become our confluence is on land in British Columbia, don’t wanna see bad trends when you energy is on land 0A69AA01-2761-431B-9E78-A4620A80EE10.png
 
All I can say is if you want to have a model on your side, it damn sure isn’t the OP GFS. If that was showing our winter storm and the Euro wasn’t, I’d almost put a fork in it right then. Granted the Euro hasn’t been all that great, it is still better than the GFS and the GFS ensembles don’t agree with the OP.
 
I don't mind seeing a big storm in the northeast right now. That just means things are normal. Better than not seeing anything at all as far as winter storms go.
 
SD said:
You have more spread in the members mslp locations at 18z than in the previous few runs. Not saying to discount the 18z op but for a suite where the ens usually don't veer that far from the op that's pretty telling
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I think a bit of disappointment is we still got a good way to go to actually get a legit winter storm for southern piedmont of the Carolinas imo. 18z broke the flow of good trends. Cant break the flow man...but yeah ways to go.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
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snow.gif

I am so tired of the NE and MA getting storm, after storm, after storm, after storm. It's our turn down here. And I don't want to hear about the "snow drought" from last year. We've been in one for almost 6 years. Plus, the MA and NE board peeps are somewhat obnoxious when it comes to snow. (We get it, you see snow, Every. Damn. Year).
 
Ollie Williams said:
I’d say the 18z Euro actually looked better overall. Notice on the H5 graph, the storm looked more squashed.
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It’s just the 50/50 low isn’t as impressive which is quite important, I guess there’s a important balance between a further south storm/better 50/50, if you get one that’s good enough it’ll work out
Edit * and wouldn’t the southeast ridge flexing more introduce more ice rather then snow and sleet ?
 
18z euro cad stronger and that trend often continues each day for CAD being realized as deeper at the surface. Seen it many times. If cmc comes in again with glory at 0z all bets are gfs is trash as usual.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s just the 50/50 low isn’t as impressive which is quite important, I guess there’s a important balance between a further south storm/better 50/50, if you get one that’s good enough it’ll work out
Edit * and wouldn’t the southeast ridge flexing more introduce more ice rather then snow and sleet ?
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Southeast ridge taking out snow/sleet would be damaging ZR event.The Virginia guy earlier said it looked like a mess because every Ptype was shown, that’s not a mess but a savior. We need all Ptypes not just all ZR. A little of each is nothing compared to all ZR.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s just the 50/50 low isn’t as impressive which is quite important, I guess there’s a important balance between a further south storm/better 50/50, if you get one that’s good enough it’ll work out
Edit * and wouldn’t the southeast ridge flexing more introduce more ice rather then snow and sleet ?
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I think that even though the look with the 50/50 low looks worse, the ridging out west looks better, which should allow the high pressure over the Nebraska area to get stronger, which is just as important as the NE low since we’re getting more influence from the +PNA. That should allow the first low to be further south, and have less of a warm nose. The ridge on the east was stronger, but I believe that is from the ridge being stronger as well.
 
WPC finally bites today and pulls trigger on ZR probabilities for Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee. Once the odds on their maps go above a certain percentage, a Winter Storm Watch will be issued.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I think that even though the look with the 50/50 low looks worse, the ridging out west looks better, which should allow the high pressure over the Nebraska area to get stronger, which is just as important as the NE low. That should allow the first low to be further south, and have less of a warm nose. The ridge on the east was stronger, but I believe that is from the ridge being stronger as well.
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yeah it seems like the 18z gefs was taking that trend to the max, and the WAA aloft wasn’t coming from the first low, but the second one off the coast, as I said, this probably means more ZR as the dominant wintry Ptype F62616F7-BF0E-453F-8AA3-EBF65C76DE68.gif
 
WPC. So far just the mtns. Valid Tuesday. Their maps don’t always match exactly when the storm occurs out in very extended. I expect percentages to slowly increase each day for ZR. I agree with including north Georgia.
 
I’ll be honest I didn’t see snow being much of chance here. Depending on the 925’s you definitely could see some sleet from I40 north but ZR seemed like the most likely precip type from Anderson To Laurens to Union to Chester, north.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
The odds are so low because of uncertainty out in the extended and the fact it’s likely to occur after Tuesday. It’s good they are already sending local offices the message tho. Check back daily. View attachment 57111
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There's literally nobody who lives in the area of GA that is shaded in brown. Ok maybe 20 people ?
 
You don’t discover a trend that quick over one set of runs. Too far out. Sure it could be all rain but we don’t know. And we don’t know how each system alters the next system with snowpack to the north. We have moisture and cold nearby so let’s be optimistic.
 
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