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Ostrich December

RVD said:
I have a question: I've used the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis tools some, but not a lot. Is it possible to make diagrams that show variance/standard deviation of these years too, and not just average anomalies? It would be a good way to visualize where these analogs disagree, not just where they agree. It might also help paint a picture of whether we risk depature from these analogs, e.g. if our December pattern looks different from the average in a place with low variance that implies that it may evolve differently down the road.
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I’m curious if you would know calculate std anomalies? I’ve downloaded ERA-5 H5 data, and have done average anomalies, and have made plots, but am still a bit puzzled.
 
That H5 setup clearly signals high pressure. The SER will be the caveat in this setup taking verbatim. Still interesting though.
 
Verbatim, you'd want to see that wave over the southern plains hang back a little longer and/or the s/w over the Lakes to speed up and dig off New England to give time for the trailing cold surface high to build in ahead of the precip and generate cold air damming
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Slow down the southern wave a bit and hope it don’t get stuck back to our west and we’re in business for some legit CAD, Nice knowing arctic highs still can come out of Canada
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Yeah that look isn't far off at all. Probably the best period for us to try to pull rabbits from hats before we lose any chance at all
 
Webberweather53 said:
Verbatim, you'd want to see that wave over the southern plains hang back a little longer and/or the s/w over the Lakes to speed up and dig off New England to give time for the trailing cold surface high to build in ahead of the precip and generate cold air damming
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Here's the high pressure, you're right, we just need the timing to shift.icon-all-conus-mslp-7990400.png
 
PNA - Looks to dive (from strongly + now) to slightly negative in about 10 days (bad). Then go slightly positive at the end of the runs (good??).
NAO - Looks to stay slightly negative through the entire runs (good??)
AO - Looks to stay moderately of even strongly negative (averaged) through the entire runs (good).

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
 
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