Right, but the overall synoptic setup really isn’t very supportive of a storm, really not a awesome H5 setup, and really not a great push of cold. I think the best we see is a ZR chance for the mountains. We would need to see huge shifts, and we haven’t seen that lately especially since we’re at a point where the storm is on land, and getting worse.
So it not looking good for a winter storm
you can’t predict a winter storm from the NAM 5 days out. It’s better short range like 24 hours. Euro is typically good at this range need it to continue to strengthen cad like most recent run.
Oh yeah for sure. Once it trends rain it doesn't trend back
I think jan 2016 several models had rain/freezing rain but it ended up trending colder and had more IP instead
CAD generally trends colder. Especially when it comes to Ice. One thing I’m noticing is models trying to run out LP into the CAD and that just isn’t going to happen. Seen that happen too many times just for it to trend back to more ice from 72 hrs in
Yeah, but that happens with most every major Miller B setup. ZR is always way over modeled, and ends up being mostly sleet. December 2018 did that, and I think February 2014 did as well. Altogether in those setups, they had a very decent shot of winter precip. I just feel like we’re teetering between ZR and Rain.
Yeah the LP is going to travel the path of least resistance and that isn’t right up in the middle of cold air.
You are correct. In fact until within 36 hours out, CLT was expected to get predominantly rain, but the NAM really caught on to the strength of the wedge and the colder thermals the day before and the metro area ended up with a major sleet storm
Most likely scenario is the LP is going to move around the CAD and transition to the coast. The lows never make it above I20 before they transition. Now I will say if you’re expecting snow, that’s just likely not going to happen. The Euro from today’s 12z run had 850’s running around 43 degrees but did have 925s slightly below freezing so you could see some sleet but ZR is likely what we are going to see. Precip isn’t very heavy either but a good .6 - .9 looks possible which could really create some issues.
Knock off the warm bias temperatures by even 3-4 degrees and that is a very significant ice storm.
I wish there were a jealous reaction!
I don't think I've ever experienced a total sleet storm with nothing else... I think it would be cool
Especially for central NC. You had maybe a few ensemble members here or there showing some sleet but that's about it. This really is only a snow threat for the mountains. Still could be interesting though!
That January 2016 had just a little bit of ZR with it... just enough to make nearly 3 inches of sleet on the ground a rock hard glacier... the kids had some really good sledding in that one
Looks like ga is getting colder as well
I’ve seen where it’s stated the ICOn can run 4-7 degrees too warm generally and globals are awful with the depth of CAD and the strength of it so it wouldn’t be at all out the possibility to see the Piedmont and Upstate running around 29-33 degrees here.
And these models already have us at 33-35 degrees right now. It would likely be running 29-31 as of today. CAD always trends colder so upper 20’s is a real possibility here. Like I said earlier, another thing that overhypes the ZR is we get these 2-3 inch events that the models show as all ZR. This is going to be a much lighter falling precip with the storm goal around 3/4 quarters of an inch of liquid that would be falling more like a shower. That can really help with the accrual of ice.
I’ve always thought that as well, but I did a little bit of research and found that during the infamous 1973 Atlanta Ice Storm, temperatures stayed in 30-32 degree range throughout. Heck even IMBY during the January 2017 winter storm, I saw over a 1/4 inch of ice accrual with a temperature of 31-32.
I would dial it back. Ignore the Icon warm bias, because most other models agree with it just barely being into freezing north of I-85. Not a real good push of cold air to get an ice storm IMO. I’ve been burned so many times being around 32-33 degrees while the CMC says I get .50 inches of ice. If anybody gets anything outside of maybe a light coating, it’ll be maybe Winston-Salem northwestward. There’s the potential CAD trend, but don’t count on that happening, because it’s easy to get too excited. I have an extremely hard time seeing up in the upper 20’s, it’s just not that strong of climo setup. I could be wrong though.
True, but those highs were just locked in place and just didn’t go away. This is a receding high, so temps are going to warm up.
And I’ve seen these models consistently under perform CAD here all my life. I’ve seen them try to drive LP directly into CAD and that just isn’t going to happen. It never does. CAD always over performs, always gets colder the closer you get to show time, and for the globals to be that close to freezing already tells me an ice storm is looking more and more likely. On top of that you only get those ridiculous ice totals from models showing every bit of liquid being freezing rain. No matter if it’s falling very heavy. That’s not the setup here. You’re dealing with lighter precip that lasts over a longer period of time, if it’s as modeled. Now I’m not saying an inch of ice but .25-.5 certainly couldn’t be ruled out.
