Ostrich December

[Ollie Williams]

I have a question: I've used the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis tools some, but not a lot. Is it possible to make diagrams that show variance/standard deviation of these years too, and not just average anomalies? It would be a good way to visualize where these analogs disagree, not just where they agree. It might also help paint a picture of whether we risk depature from these analogs, e.g. if our December pattern looks different from the average in a place with low variance that implies that it may evolve differently down the road.

I’m curious if you would know calculate std anomalies? I’ve downloaded ERA-5 H5 data, and have done average anomalies, and have made plots, but am still a bit puzzled.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wedges

 

[Chandler]

?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs/cmc has same general pattern except the 50/50 low is positioned way better on the CMC, a few members showed some CADish stuff but it’s the CMC mainly by itself

 

[Webberweather53]

?
View attachment 56028

Also wedges (just CAD wedges)

 

[Webberweather53]

At least we're going in the right direction inside the medium range

 

[Webberweather53]

GEFS completely whiffed on this week's -EPO, hopefully we get a trend like this in late December to moderate the AK vortex a bit

 

[AJ1013]

65F and low overcast with light drizzle here at 9:30am. Feels like winter!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can we please score off this pattern before it switches to crap

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hmm

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

View attachment 56059View attachment 56060Hmm

Severe WX?

 

[BufordWX]

View attachment 56059View attachment 56060Hmm

Gonna be close for @Brent

 

[RobertRath]

So the pattern change post mid-December is a lock? Anything to root for to change things?

 

[SD]

?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 56064
?

Slow down the southern wave a bit and hope it don’t get stuck back to our west and we’re in business for some legit CAD, Nice knowing arctic highs still can come out of Canada

 

[Ollie Williams]

That H5 setup clearly signals high pressure. The SER will be the caveat in this setup taking verbatim. Still interesting though.

 

[Webberweather53]

Verbatim, you'd want to see that wave over the southern plains hang back a little longer and/or the s/w over the Lakes to speed up and dig off New England to give time for the trailing cold surface high to build in ahead of the precip and generate cold air damming

 

[SD]

Slow down the southern wave a bit and hope it don’t get stuck back to our west and we’re in business for some legit CAD, Nice knowing arctic highs still can come out of Canada

Yeah that look isn't far off at all. Probably the best period for us to try to pull rabbits from hats before we lose any chance at all

 

[Ollie Williams]

Verbatim, you'd want to see that wave over the southern plains hang back a little longer and/or the s/w over the Lakes to speed up and dig off New England to give time for the trailing cold surface high to build in ahead of the precip and generate cold air damming

Here's the high pressure, you're right, we just need the timing to shift.

 

[FallsLake]

PNA - Looks to dive (from strongly + now) to slightly negative in about 10 days (bad). Then go slightly positive at the end of the runs (good??).
NAO - Looks to stay slightly negative through the entire runs (good??)
AO - Looks to stay moderately of even strongly negative (averaged) through the entire runs (good).

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)