I wouldn't frown at that, that's really good at this range!Well thats not good. Pretty much everyone below 20% probability for more than 1" of snow. That means at least an 80% probability there will be less than inch
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
1. It’s a trend the last 12 hours 2. It’s not gonna be that much that far out as it’s still around D8-10, still have disagreements within the ensembles 3. Covid 19 doesn’t help and tacs on uncertainty given SFC observations and other things are not good right nowWell thats not good. Pretty much everyone below 20% probability for more than 1" of snow. That means at least an 80% probability there will be less than inch
Avalanche
Member
Yeah, we'll never be able to make it with all those factors against us.
Haha. I've learned my lesson to forget ground temps. They are very progressive, meaning they forget about the past. Of course, that is usually an argument I've made when its been in the 40's or 50's, not70's like recently.Avalanche
Member
Would we want that blocking way up south of Greenland to shift a tad west?
"If only it were January."
The new Euro Weeklies say December is going to be awesome!
Then we crap the bed in January, although to be fair, it had the same thing for December two runs ago.
The highest snow mean I've seen all winter!
Then we crap the bed in January, although to be fair, it had the same thing for December two runs ago.
The highest snow mean I've seen all winter!
Now hold on a minute. Last year wasn’t the Euro weeklies always showing glory in the long range only to fail. Now it had been showing warm December only to flip to cold. Makes you wonder... ?
Maybe this year it’ll be flopped .. showing warmth which turns to cold .. seems to be happening with this here possible threat coming up
You know things are getting interesting when Tim Buckley pulls this out!
Just for giggles I looked at the GEPS. The entire long range looks like this. Lol
Let’s keep those mountain percentages going up! GSP is dead to me that weekend anyway ?
I went and plotted the Vorticity maps from the '00 winter storm. It goes to show you that we are really threading the needle with this setup.
Paging RC!
For a model that’s often to progressive, I like where it’s at and I’m not complaining 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Seems as if the Low Is in a really good position. Just trying to hunt for some cold air!
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GFS still a little interesting with the ULL feature.
Not bad!
NorthGaWinter4
Member
We officially have something to watch imo