Webberweather53
Meteorologist
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
BufordWX
Member
FWIW the GEFS locking in with below average temperatures across the area into the second week of December.
He’s a newbie I think.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A little bit less digging & weaker looking wave on the Euro today vs yesterday's 12z. All else considered, it argues the southern stream wave will start moving a bit faster and more likely to phase in later frames (not as favorable for snow from wave #1 in places like the Carolinas (east of the mtns)).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
And right on cue here comes the phase. Euro's bias to drag its feet in the medium range w/ cutoffs over the SW US making its presence known once again.
Severe threat with this system is still definitely there 
Just pulled this out of Alabama, woah lol 
I’m curious to watch if there is a line of storms on the gulf will that reduce the instability across Northern Georgia and the Carolinas. Possibly reducing qpf rates as well.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Discussion w/ wave #1 will quickly be pivoting from snow/ice to a severe weather &/or tornado outbreak on the front end. Man that's an ugly synoptic look
Woah, nasty high shear low cape look here 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wow mid 60s dews in late November, that's crazy
BufordWX
Member
Liking the cold look after wave 1. Gonna be the coldest air so far this winter.
Wow I can’t get over the shear in these soundings in NC, these resemble Cameron Nixon’s “mid Atlantic bullet” so it’s a pretty classic Hodograph for this time of the year here 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We have not one, but 2 waves dropping south along the front range of the Rockies & high plains behind our big upper trough that's hanging out over the Great Lakes
BufordWX
Member
That blocking...
That ridge over SE Canada is a big problem in the setup.
Even if we don't get a big storm like some were hoping, I'm not disappointed in regards to the colder air.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Are we finally gonna see our first below average December since 2010?
Just a reminder that there’s bad runs and good runs so don’t freak out, get disappointed, or cancel if there’s a bad run or a few suites of bad runs, totally normal, and I’m guilty of that, but with the first wave I’m honestly leaning towards severe weather, second still has potential and many possibilities
^ same thing can be said about good runs, don’t get to excited if there’s a good run or a few good runs, especially if it’s far out, I’m definitely guilty of that, lol
100% agree, bottom line, don't cliff dive. I personally am not excited about the snow chances because models haven't reflected that enough, but what do I know. I don't think this is anywhere near the best pattern we've ever seen in years on the models for snow, but I am encouraged for some long-lasting cold through the first week or two of December!
I hope and assume @pcbjr is keeping up as this gives Hogtown an average of a whopping 7 F colder than normal for early Dec with no end in sight! I'll take my -6 to -7 anomaly, too! This pattern , a classic +PNA, often gives the deep SE the coldest anomalies. And note that there is often a very warm (anomalywise) Canada with these as is the case here.
olhausen
Member
Yep I’ve literally gone from 4-6 inches of snow, to nothing then to 14 inches of snow back to an inch since last nights gfs runs through this morning. Either way cold cold temps look to start December off this winter.
KMA is close after its nukenado event in the southeast with the first wave, lol 
Looks kind of like the CMC
Yeah tbh based on our past, I Prefer a quicker/flatter wave that doesn’t slow down and doesn’t amplify, even if it means light snow ?
Now IF we could get that to verify it would have potential. Never been a big fan of the pattern the first few days of December. Never understood the best pattern in years saying. It's not the worst but what exactly is that sprawling Canadian ridge helping with? It's just blocking up Pacific air.
Honestly I could get away with look similar to early jan 2018, hopefully we get a look that can get something like it or a low pressure around Atlantic Canada rather then a ridge, like what @RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said
I’m starting to wonder if we can sneak some rain/snow showers out with the cold pocket aloft, that look on the icon is still solid for it
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The placement of these 2 shortwaves is pretty ideal for creating as strong of a negatively tilted trough as possible w/ the southern stream wave slightly leading the northern one.
we have a thread for the early December Threat. Come over there
Perhaps some one could help me on this. This winter, with about half of the airline industry grounded. Do you think balloon recon would increase or would we lose data that a normal seasons recon were collected.
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gawxnative
Member
Yes, this distance out, we just want to keep an eye on the model trends, and not look and "run vs run"
BufordWX
Member
If nothing else right now at least we have what looks like an extended period of below average coming up. Feels like it’s been a long time since we went more then a day or two with temperatures like these.
Am I seeing this right that the eps mean doesn't have a high above 50 from 12/1 on?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, basically lol. Definitely seems like a cold pattern you're more accustomed to seeing in an El Nino winter, it's not vodka cold as most of the air masses are continental polar, but we're more persistently below average & of course wet. If only we had early-mid January climo to work w/, temps would be about 8-10F colder overall.
Where is Falls Lake, falling off on the job? Lol Indexes here looking even better heading into December. AO looks similar to the NAO with it going negative. I love seeing this in early winter, I believe I remember Don Sutherland on American once discussing how the AO tends to repeat itself during the winter months based on what it does entering winter, someone can correct me if I’m wrong. It may not produce next week, but hopefully we can get more blocking the next few months.
I believe Don used to say the AO was like a 30-60 day cycle I cant remember the exact numbers