Ostrich December

[LovingGulfLows]

Definitely a trend in the right direction on the 12z EPS

Yeah it feels like a shift towards the GFS...both models are showing a couple of ULL's swinging through the southern CONUS now over the next two weeks. I definitely think someone in the South can score with this weather pattern.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yup already a better mean at hour 222 vs any run

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Yup already a better mean at hour 222 vs any run

I just have a feeling man

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

While it’s not crazy, it’s much better than any run so far

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This pattern ???

 

[GaWx]

This pattern ???View attachment 53128View attachment 53129

Textbook Canadian block/+PNA, which is typically almost always a lock for especially the deep SE to get colder than normal. But the odd thing is that this is typical of El Nino, not La Nina.

 

[Mitch West]

Climate center depicting what the models have been showing for a couple days now..

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

? ?
View attachment 53113

I can hear it now ... “SUN ANGLE” “RATES” “GROUND WARMTH”

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@Webberweather53 i know you’ve brought This out a few times but the similarities are really apparent here between the EPS and Jan 2000

 

[GaWx]

Very nice, thanks to the +PNA/Canadian blocking: I hope @pcbjr is watching this pattern for early Dec as he would be a solid 5 F BN for 12/3-8! When was the last time that happened there for a 5 day period in Dec? I'll have to check:

 

[Webberweather53]

@Webberweather53 i know you’ve brought This out a few times but the similarities are really apparent here between the EPS and Jan 2000 View attachment 53132View attachment 53135

Only big difference is the trough here is positively tilted, while Jan 2000 was negative by the time it passed the longitude of GA, still may end up w/ a strong cyclone regardless though

 

[Webberweather53]

My jimmies are officially rustled

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Ella Dorsey just predicted a brutal December and said she wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a snowstorm in early December. She called December 17

 

[Myfrotho704_]

My jimmies are officially rustled

View attachment 53137


View attachment 53138

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

My jimmies are officially rustled

View attachment 53137


View attachment 53138

THIS IS GOING TO BE THE ONE!! IT'S 2020!

 

[Ollie Williams]

@Myfrotho704_ could you post the probability maps for the EPS? The one I have doesn't list out the numbers.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@Myfrotho704_ could you post the probability maps for the EPS? The one I have doesn't list out the numbers.

 

[Webberweather53]

Really cool study that I think is worth reading on. Talks about the MJO- AO/NAO relationship and how the MJO phase 6-7 >>> -NAO/-AO tendency is stronger during west QBO years (like this winter), whereas it's basically non-existent in eQBO.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/2/175/htm

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

View attachment 53144View attachment 53145

Well thats not good. Pretty much everyone below 20% probability for more than 1" of snow. That means at least an 80% probability there will be less than inch