Webberweather53
Meteorologist
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks about the same.
It improved at H5 and it looks better for TN members especially
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Forum has been opened for the 12-24/12-25 setup..
It is for most of us. Damn us if we can't score because of the lack of cold air.... which always seems to be the issue for all of us. And of course, we don't have a wedge this go around. All that snow pack to our north getting wasted.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
How's long range eps lookin
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Big low over the Bering Sea + Barents-Kara Sea ridge, that pattern is gonna inflict some serious damage on the polar vortex
Ron Burgundy
Member
Oh ye of too much faith.
This will be the best Dec pattern since 2010, will be a shame if we don’t see something out of this. Though, an Xmas winter event for TN and Deep South would be nice to see.
How repetitive has this pattern been ?, were gonna score off this soon, especially as climo gets better, already close calls off this Look, tons of blocking 
Wulfer
Member
Not a bad spot for this one honestly
Cad Wedge NC
Member
It's Christmas for Heaven's sakes .... don't confuse us with the facts. Our minds are already made up.
Don’t sleep on this 
Jessy89
Member
This could be a Dusting to 2inches for many. We have two models euro and gfs firing shots. Maybe this has more potential then Christmas but still marginal
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I’m sleeping on that note!
Avalanche
Member
Thats a great map, just need a little blue around Person County for Roxboro.
scoot Powell the best met
Clem282340
Member
This system that comes in behind the Christmas storm kinda reminds me of that system that happened on February 8th of this year
Clem282340
Member
What happened on the 18z euro for the storm after the Christmas storm that’s the one I’m watching looks like it has more potential
NoSnowATL
Member
We have a train of systems coming with cold air at the door step. We have to get one with this pattern.
packfan98
Moderator
18z doesn’t go out that far.
There should be more discussion about the Euro and the severe threat it has consistently shown east of the Apps Christmas Eve. 850mb winds 70-80 knots with a screaming 120 knot jet overtop. Surface dewpoints in the 60’s, backing SE surface winds 10-20 mph, 70 knots of bulk shear... if there is even a hint of instability it’s not going to be good.
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https://southernwx.com/community/th...ers-⚡️-12-23-12-25-severe-weather-threat.853/There should be more discussion about the Euro and the severe threat it has consistently shown east of the Apps Christmas Eve. 850mb winds 70-80 knots with a screaming 120 knot jet overtop. Surface dewpoints in the 60’s, backing SE surface winds 10-20 mph, 70 knots of bulk shear... if there is even a hint of instability it’s not going to be good.
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%EF%B8%8F-12-23-12-25-severe-weather-threat.853/" class="link link--internal">https://southernwx.com/community/th...i298]️-12-23-12-25-severe-weather-threat.853/
Thank you.
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Aleeeettttt (read the thread)
Brent
Member
Haha... How about highs near 60 for Christmas Day up the I-95 corridor in the NE... Get some!!
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Good they had enough snow lmao
Fortunately this has, to my pleasant surprise, turned out to be anything but an ostrich December, I will always be content with a winter month like this. This is likely headed for our coldest Dec since 2010! I had still another great walk this evening with 50 F and dewpoint near 40.
Trivia: our 3 coldest months since 1982 and by a good margin at that have all been in Dec: 2010, 2000, and 1989!
In my area, averages will fall for another 2 weeks albeit more slowly than in recent weeks. We're just now entering the coldest half per averages, which runs from December 19th through February 2nd. Interestingly enough, however, our peak in wintry precip based on very longterm averages has actually been a good bit past the end of this coldest climo period, in mid Feb! I think that one reason for this is that the upper atmosphere apparently doesn't hit its coldest until around then, which may also mean the furthest south average storm track. Also, it averages a bit stormier/wetter in Feb vs Dec/Jan.
Even though Feb averages are the warmest of all three winter months (although not by that much), it can get as cold as midwinter records as late as mid-Feb. A good reason why is that the Arctic's average coldest is not til ~Feb 25th.
Trivia: our 3 coldest months since 1982 and by a good margin at that have all been in Dec: 2010, 2000, and 1989!
In my area, averages will fall for another 2 weeks albeit more slowly than in recent weeks. We're just now entering the coldest half per averages, which runs from December 19th through February 2nd. Interestingly enough, however, our peak in wintry precip based on very longterm averages has actually been a good bit past the end of this coldest climo period, in mid Feb! I think that one reason for this is that the upper atmosphere apparently doesn't hit its coldest until around then, which may also mean the furthest south average storm track. Also, it averages a bit stormier/wetter in Feb vs Dec/Jan.
Even though Feb averages are the warmest of all three winter months (although not by that much), it can get as cold as midwinter records as late as mid-Feb. A good reason why is that the Arctic's average coldest is not til ~Feb 25th.
Believe it or not, CHA is still just slight above normal for mean temps. Decembers have been rough around here since 2010. We've seen some small snows below .5, but nothing amazing. Missed several to the south in the past decade. Not crying, lol. Chattanooga has done better with snow in the 2010-2020 range, than the previous decade. That was a heartbreaker decade around here.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the lag in our snow climo vs temps is something I’ve discussed in here previously, it has to do with the total snow cover volume and sea ice extent in the NH reaching its maximum in late winter plus the oceans are cooler in Feb than Dec. These 2 effects outweigh any contribution from increased solar insolation. Our higher averages plus higher snow climo in Feb vs Dec also means that’s there’s a lot more variability at that time of the year than early winter
-NAO developing on the Euro around D10. That's good to see. Liked the 0z GFS in the LR. 6z was less impressive, but hey, it's the LR. Still no fantasy storms.
What till new year or after. Jumpin January is going to be fun.
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I want real snow instead of fantasy snow. But it is discouraging not to have any bites at all with a decent pattern showing up. It's been a recurring theme the past two years with nothing showing up. The last two years the pattern was so bad it wasn't surprising. But this year so far I figured we'd be seeing more hope than we see now.
whatalife
Moderator
Just posting the 00z ensemble teleconnections for the euro. However...all major ensemble suits have a -AO and -NAO. The catch will be the EPO and PNA which look naturalish...
