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Ostrich December

I am still eyeing the Dec. 28th timeframe for something. GFS shows a weak Miller B setup with a transfer to a coastal low, but this one's setting up colder than last week's so we're in a better position right off the bat. What would help even more is if that high pressure over Minnesota could actually be in a CAD-ish position. The other concerning thing- if you can see a dryslot on the GFS' precip maps that's not a good sign, lmao. The 18z GFS was a similar setup to the 12z, but shifted weaker with the primary low (two runs don't make a trend IMO, esp. so far out).

Probably way too early to be thinking about this system in such serious detail. I haven't even looked at what other models are advertising.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png
 
Stephenb888 said:
This is my first year on here, but I have no idea how you guys have witnessed fail after fail, week after week and remained sane. It’s just amazing how close everyone gets sometimes only to suck a big one.
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It's a rough hobby, my dude. Certainly not for the faint of heart.
 
Warning: Anyone living in foothills to central NC hanging any hopes on a miller B, use 10 boulders of salt. Telling this in advance for your own sanity.
The ole Carolina dry slot is very common with qpf as energy transfers to the coast. Will leave you in a state of depression,what ifs, could of,should of state of mind post storm annalysis.
 
Stephenb888 said:
This is my first year on here, but I have no idea how you guys have witnessed fail after fail, week after week and remained sane. It’s just amazing how close everyone gets sometimes only to suck a big one.
Click to expand...
Just like golf. Every now and then you hit a couple good shots and make a birdie. Keeps you coming back just like this.
 
Stephenb888 said:
This is my first year on here, but I have no idea how you guys have witnessed fail after fail, week after week and remained sane. It’s just amazing how close everyone gets sometimes only to suck a big one.
Click to expand...

Hahahahaha. You haven’t seen fail yet. This is little league fails.
 
Stephenb888 said:
This is my first year on here, but I have no idea how you guys have witnessed fail after fail, week after week and remained sane. It’s just amazing how close everyone gets sometimes only to suck a big one.
Click to expand...

We're the definition of insanity. I remember the fun we had "chasing" winter storms from the winters of 2008-2009, 2009-2010, and 2010-2011, respectively.

Those were some good times.
 
Stephenb888 said:
This is my first year on here, but I have no idea how you guys have witnessed fail after fail, week after week and remained sane. It’s just amazing how close everyone gets sometimes only to suck a big one.
Click to expand...
The joy that is present here during a great winter storm will keep you here through all the heartbreak. I encourage you to stick around till that happens, it’s well worth the wait.
 
ATLwxfan said:
After Christmas it gets mild and stays mild per the GFS. Not even a fantasy storm to hang your hat on.

This talk of a favorable pattern to end the month doesn’t seem to be the case unless mild and rainy is favorable.


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At least we have the desirable cold Christmas and just after that most prefer. Going to enjoy that period a lot. And a N to BN month of December overall is a real treat! it will very likely end up as the coldest Dec here since way back in 2010. This month is a big win. I'll take two more like it if we can somehow manage it. If we can get just one of the remaining two like it, that would still be sweet as 2 out of 3 ain't bad, especially with a very warm W Pac and Arctic as well as a solid La Nina.

Edit: We can thank the strongest Dec -AO since 2012 for its help with this gift.
 
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Stephenb888 said:
This is my first year on here, but I have no idea how you guys have witnessed fail after fail, week after week and remained sane. It’s just amazing how close everyone gets sometimes only to suck a big one.
Click to expand...
Part of tracking snow while living in the southeast. Most times it’s a fail but the times it works out make it all worthwhile. I know I see snow more often then most on here but still love every single time snow is falling weather it sticks or not.
 
Stephenb888 said:
This is my first year on here, but I have no idea how you guys have witnessed fail after fail, week after week and remained sane. It’s just amazing how close everyone gets sometimes only to suck a big one.
Click to expand...

Been around since the early Wright weather days back in 2000. You get use to it.
In the SE you Never ever get excited until you see it falling in your back yard.


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ATLwxfan said:
After Christmas it gets mild and stays mild per the GFS. Not even a fantasy storm to hang your hat on.

This talk of a favorable pattern to end the month doesn’t seem to be the case unless mild and rainy is favorable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Given that we’re all over in the other thread trashing the GFS, why should this bother us? We don’t believe anything it says anyway.
 
Day 10 looks very intriguing. The 0z GFS had a storm running up through central Tennessee and a departing high out-to-sea; which equated to a warm scenario. The euro and especially the Canadian had a more suppressed look with the storm along with a better placement of the high (colder/CAD setup). The 6z GFS continued to show the low attempting to move up through central Tennessee, but now had a much better placement for a high. Bottom line, this is a time period to keep an eye on.
 
Winter Storm Warning for 1 county out of Blacksburg today. They don’t even belong with Wilkes area imo.
 
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