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Ostrich December

Day 10 from 00z ensembles:

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Day 15 from 00z ensembles:
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I’m actually surprised you received up votes for this. Really hope this flips. The 10m is warm over AK and Siberia the next two weeks.


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People say I'm overly optimistic, but I still like the prospects of a great blocking pattern. As other folks have stated, the models don't do well (or have to play catch up) once blocking starts to materialize. So going on that, the indices still look good or even great to me:

PNA - Now looks to only drop to neutral before going back slightly positive (could be worse..)
NAO - Looks to stay slightly negative and maybe go moderately negative through the LR (can't ask for more for the NAO)
AO - This looks incredible. Looks to drop strongly negative and possible stay that way through the LR (again incredible)

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
 
People say I'm overly optimistic, but I still like the prospects of a great blocking pattern. As other folks have stated, the models don't do well (or have to play catch up) once blocking starts to materialize. So going on that, the indices still look good or even great to me:

PNA - Now looks to only drop to neutral before going back slightly positive (could be worse..)
NAO - Looks to stay slightly negative and maybe go moderately negative through the LR (can't ask for more for the NAO)
AO - This looks incredible. Looks to drop strongly negative and possible stay that way through the LR (again incredible)

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
We haven’t had a good blocking pattern during winter in while. Got see it first to believe it... with a La Niña maybe bit harder to sustain. We see...
 
GFS has some semblance of the same trending in
View attachment 56783
Starting to finally get some semblance of large scale sinking/descent on newer runs as the ridge builds off New England and into SE Canada, forcing surface pressure rises over the Lakes & Quebec
 
Starting to finally get some semblance of large scale sinking/descent on newer runs as the ridge builds off New England and into SE Canada, forcing surface pressure rises over the Lakes & Quebec
Yeah hopefully this run continues that trend, but anyone still clinging to wave 1, that ship has sailed
 
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