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Pattern October Thread

Webberweather53 said:
When the Pacific jet finally decides to relax/retract & the strong planetary-scale trough retrogrades from the Gulf of Alaska, that'll be when it gets legitimately cold in the east-central CONUS as the amount of cross-polar flow will start to increase into N America & heights begin to rise over NW N America w/ the mean trough pulling back towards the Aleutians.

We're still on track to see this occur sometime in early Nov. Hard to get into too much detail this far out, but the overall planetary-scale wave behavior is pointing towards an anomalously cooler stretch of weather along/east of the Rockies after Halloween.
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I’m glad you said it cause I woulda got the weenies ??‍♂️
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Don’t even LIE WEBB I know you see this blocking and your NC weather vibes are tingling! Come back! This is bad news bears for the SW
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If we keep retrograding I’ll get slammed ?. Plus my snow climo in NM peaks near Christmas and into early Jan instead of late January/early Feb like NC, slightly better chance of snow in Nov here
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Also @GaWx you better start getting in on the action before these models flip on us!
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I’m thoroughly enjoying the models continuing to forecast the big change. Going to be enjoyable. I’m not worried. And we have climo on our side to favor overall cooling for the next 2.5 months along with it remaining mainly cool the subsequent 2.5 months. So any subsequent warmth will be more than counteracted later. The sun’s warmth is losing the battle as it gets lower in the sky.

Meanwhile, I’m about to stroll outside in the pleasantly cool evening. Low 60s temp with mid 50s dewpoint is pretty good.
 
44 and rain! Winds gusting to 30mph9121D493-B501-4820-8D47-FD643FA0FF6F.png
 
No storms here front passed too early but man it feels incredible out patio open ?

And oh yeah after that 80 on Tuesday there is nothing even close after thatScreenshot_20211024-193548.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Less E Asia positive torque still can have a similar effect as negative mountain torque because relatively speaking both instances will favor a retreat of the N Pacific jet as the downstream baroclinicity decreases. In any case, planetary waves often retrograde westward under their own power irrespective of what the MJO, etc are doing due to planetary vorticity advection (difference in coriolis w/ latitude causes very large + strong troughs to retrograde west against the mean flow). This mechanism is definitely at play here and 98W is also contributing to what the height field looks like over N America in early Nov.
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Web do these mtn torgue, continental torgues that cause planetary waves move around the globe like fronts? Forgive my ignorance. But are these the bigger wx pattern drivers of things like longwave troughs, MJO, teleconnections,etc
Seems the - NAO, + PNA, end results are caused by these torgue events, which create planetary waves, which effect TC signals.
If thats so, which im probably way off here. Then why dont, or can we just forecast, figure out torgue events?
 
Apparently, we had a rogue t'storm come through a little while ago (I was asleep).

It doesn't seem to have been severe though.

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Also, a million dollar question is going to be whether DFW makes it through the enter month of October without a sub-70*F high.

Thursday and Friday are both cutting it close, but right now forecast highs are just above 70*F.

Once those 2 days pass though, we should be in the clear.
 
Winds are ripping! Had a gust to 44 mph last hour! If it’s 44 degrees, is that a 0 degree windchill?
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Also, a million dollar question is going to be whether DFW makes it through the enter month of October without a sub-70*F high.

Thursday and Friday are both cutting it close, but right now forecast highs are just above 70*F.

Once those 2 days pass though, we should be in the clear.
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Definitely done here after Tuesday. Nothing even close and for the first time temps are dropping throughout the 10 day. Fall is here
 
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